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comparison of Nasdaq and Tsla charts around noon when the latter surged would suggest not “regular movement”...

I believe TSLA rose 6% the day prior to Elon’s “all out” Semi comment and then another 7% the day of. Since, the “announcement” provided no concrete details, I thought the reaction was obviously overdone. IMO, TSLA’s frothiness began that week, in the $950-1050 range. Talking about a bubble...

I took a break from this thread the past week and so only read from Friday afternoon on, but one explanation for Friday’s absolute tear (which looks to continue into today, given pre-market) that I haven’t heard, is the price action of TSLA itself. In other words, it is being bid up simply...

Are/will 3/Y cannibalize S/X? What will happen to S/X? Revived with Plaid? Could levels once again reach 30k combined/Q? Or even more? From Hypercharts, Model S deliveries. 20 Q1 was 6.115k. 20 Q2 would be 5.3k with S/X split evenly. Model S upward growth trajectory ended 17Q4. 18 Q1/2...

Forgive me for my ignorance, but could you explain how producing 82k/vehicles Q2 vs 102k/vehicles Q1 affect COGs, if at all? I assume higher volume production in Q1 would equate to lower COGS/vehicle (Ceteris parabis) than Q2 due to fixed costs being spread over more units. Am I thinking about...

The macro dip I’m referring to will be easy to identify when it happens. If COVID induced, it will be preceded by an exponential rise in hospitalization/deaths. Deep out of the money protective puts would be my choice.

I agree with all points here, but to carry the discussion further... The chances of Tesla falling because shorts re-enter the stock is far greater than Tesla rising on short covering. Obviously, shorts have much more to gain with the SP at ATH's than anytime before. Ironically, historically...

Any reports of Y being delivered outside BC? Or is Tesla keeping its focus there given its proximity to Fremont and Q2 end approaching?

To elaborate, Jack theorizes why battery day has been delayed multiple times from 12:00 - 20:00. His argument is that they can't hold the event until the new batteries are already in vehicles being shipped for fear of Osborning sales of vehicles with the old batteries. He cites Model Y/3...

I’d wager Battery Day will be when Tesla is relatively the weakest (as per Autonomy Day). This could be after delivery/prod or earnings, with me favouring the latter. I’ll go with August. What is your definition of a bolded perceived low p and d?

Any confirmation that Silver Ray unloaded Tesla’s in Zeebrugee?

Thanks for the link. The short answer seems to be “a lot”.

@Mr Miserable, thanks for all your great work. Any idea how much more it would cost to ship to Europe via rail to East coast vs straight from San Fran?

Agree - this seems more likely to be the case than China regs as CPCA estimated 11095 a week ago vs Reuter’s 11 565 today. The move seems overdone for an extra 470 units.

I’ve been searching for the thread with Q1 delivery predictions and which members were closest but can’t find it. Anyone have the link? And same for Q2? Tks

I repeat - “I certainly won't claim to know why Elon says/tweets/emails what he does.”

Perhaps it was, but I don't think moving up the production timeline with so few details as "it’s time to go all out" justifies an incremental $16B in one day. As for Nikola, you are very generous using the word "worth".

I certainly won't claim to know why Elon says/tweets/emails what he does. He has a long history of statements people have been surprised by. He could simply be trolling given the attn on Nikola and their vapourware. Perhaps the production timeline has been moved up by a single month? Or maybe...

To put things in better perspective, assuming "yes" moved the stock, it was worth ~$16B. During the lows of last year, a ~9% bump would have been a ~$4B boost in market cap. If people are truly buying on the semi news, are they actually evaluating if the new information justifies a $16B increase...

Where did you get this updated timeline from? No specifics were listed in the email.

No matter how much you qualify your posts, you’re going to get auto-disagrees whenever you mention the “D” word. I agree - theres a huge difference between “Tesla has a demand problem” and “Tesla has a demand problem for Fremont-produced M3s for delivery to the US in Q2 at current prices...

Yes, more misleading. The email makes no mention of Tesla shooting for Q2 profitability. That’s pure speculation. If you replaced the word “problem” with “challenges”, it’d be hard to find fault with the title as that is the exact word Elon used to describe the situation.

A more misleading title for the article would “Elon and Tesla shooting for Q2 profitability while continuing to ramp production”...

Good shot at 1.76T - 5.28T market cap?

A friend of mine confirmed Ray4Tesla's link to the Chinese article says "sales". Assuming sales, I'm surprised by the inventory building - Q1 inventory (?) + Apr inventory (7600 assuming May sales = production). It seems reasonable to assume China started building the LR RWD on expectations SR+...

Sounds like a great short. Is there a thread dedicated to it yet?

I think the Nikola runup is reflective of markets overall and how they’ve become unhinged from reality/economics. A combination of so much money sloshing around, extreme FOMO, and a wave of day traders birthed from corona, is throwing valuations out of whack... I’m not comparing Nikolas...

a fair approach. So which number is higher these days? Or are we fairly well balanced in your opinion?

I'm regularly confused by opinions here. Common refrains include "the market's always forward looking" and "that's already priced in". That's the response you'll hear if you discuss the possibility of Q2 ER being weak/buying opportunity. However, if you argue an interview with a long term...

Is this production or deliveries? I'm assuming production but can't find both numbers as was reported last month. April was ~11,200 production and ~3600 sales. If LR MIC deliveries began May 20, then ~7600 SR+ would have been in inventory May 1 (ignoring prior inventory). If 11k was production...

UncaNed. Instead of disagreeing with my posts, do you have anything worthwhile to contribute to the conversation? See responses by starfoxisdown and azri11 to see how it’s done...

I would have thought there would have been so much US demand for even the LR/P models that Canada would be a ways off yet. Interesting.

Given the price cuts to North American M3, I don't suspect there is a production bottleneck there. If there is, and they are still cutting prices to move volume, the demand would have to be far lower than even the most bearish estimates. I don't believe that to be the case. Also, given that so...

Tesla wouldn’t have simultaneously announced Plaid SX and slashed prices on those newly announced models by $5k. (Elon tweeted last Sept that Plaid would cost more than current offerings but be less than competitors, presumably referring to the Taycan). There will always be demand for the...

Interestingly, Tesla chose to lower SX prices to revive demand rather than rollout the ever-imminent Plaid. I believe the latter would have led to accretion of gross margins instead of compression. I suspect this didn’t happen because a demonstration of Plaid will happen with the tba battery...

That’s quite the oversimplification. Long term investors wouldn’t sell on a weak Q, but they’d be foolish to not delay adding to their positions, assuming they intended to in the future, if they saw downside risks in the near future. Long term investors aren’t the only market participants...

I think your thesis is correct. Tesla has a demand problem - for M3/SX in NA in Q2. Despite Tesla maintaining Y wouldn't cannibalize 3 sales, and many others arguing similar, it most certainly will. In fact, I think it will cannibalize sales of SX as well. The Y was incredible value at $4k...

It’s nice to see some balance somewhere on TMC. I agree that COVID poses the greatest risk to TSLA, esp over the next 2Q, and possibly 4Q, with a second winter wave, and that Tesla-specific risks pale in comparison. I believe that supplier disruptions and demand, esp NA for Q2 (save MY) are...

If all motors come from Nevada, and Nevada was shutdown for six weeks, there must be a period of time when Shanghai exhausted their inventory and had to either halt production completely or slow it down as they foresaw supply running out. Could that be the reason for the dismal April China sales?

Tesla Daily Podcast reports Panasonic confirmed they are sending packs from Nevada to Shanghai. Do you have a source for your comment above? I think the question is how dependent is Shanghai on Nevada? Are all SR packs being shipped in? Are only the LR packs manufactured in Shanghai?

Thanks for starting this thread! I've been looking for a place to have more focused discussions on how coronavirus will affect Tesla and the SP since early March but couldn't gain much traction. Given Tesla's strength post-M3 ramp (Fremont) and start of Y ramp, I believe coronavirus far and away...

Fair points as to why he thought it would be tough. I get that. But what happened that made it much less tough than he was anticipating? I assume M3 deliveries were much higher than he thought they would be?

I know it was a long time ago, but I can't figure it out so... From the Q2 19 earnings call, Sacconaghi asked if Q3 19 deliveries can improve sequentially: "Yes, thank you. I was wondering if you can comment about whether you felt that Q2 benefited from consumers in the U.S. sort of rushing...

I appreciate your taking the time to write out a thoughtful response. As for prod and delivery numbers, I believe you got the wrong Troy (and I don't think he'd want to be mistaken for me...haha). "High growth companies can be over-valued for years on end while continuing to appreciate...

You need to price in a fair bit of bankruptcy risk to get SP down below the $200's, which I don't see as a concern. Given your arguments, I assume you feel Tesla is fairly priced/undervalued at its current $150B market cap? And you justify it with qualitative arguments like "a detailed plan for...

I appreciate the reply. Tesla is certainly not immune to macros (despite years of it seemingly moving independently), especially a pandemic that is disrupting both the supply and demand sides. I feel the majority of the market is overbought, Tesla included. How any company can push ATH's that...

Before Q3 19, and specifically during the M3 ramp, the conversation was a lot more balanced, and therefore valuable, here. Now, any comment that isn’t gushing with Tesla praise is met with a flurry of dislikes (my last only got 37 disagrees - how disappointing). I think so few dissenting voices...

1) When Tesla finally gets the go-ahead to resume production, will all of its suppliers in Alameda get blanket approval? Or will the county review them one by one and make a decision? Tesla reopening may be the first of many obstacles on its path to full production. 2) If GigaShanghai doesn’t...

Are you in Calgary as well? Is that an invitation to hang out?