Will electric vehicles put parts/repair shops out of business?

[mattjs33]

Perhaps also the increased longevity of the motor and the absence of parts with limited lifetime will make it more worthwhile to repair the car otherwise. So perhaps there might be a shift from buying new cars to repairing old cars? Dunno.

Good point, especially given that the average age of cars on the roads has pushed to an all time high -- over 11 years old. Some of that is ecomonically motivated -- "I can't afford to replace it" -- but what I'm seeing/hearing from a lot of people is need motivated -- "It works fine, I don't need to replace it." I keep saying that cars are made better now than they've ever been. There's a fair amount of proof.

[mattjs33]

One of the stories we heard was salespeople having to explain EVs to customers. a thousand questions that they don't have to answer/convince to customers when buying the gas machine they have always bought. That's a lot of extra work and time that takes away from selling more cars per day.

You got it right there. (my emphasis added)

[jerry33]

Maybe you implied it somehow, however I don't quite see yet why you then say "Both Toyota and the dealers stand to lose from EVs...". Why Toyota itself ?

Toyota sells the parts to the dealers. EVs have far fewer parts so Toyota loses a goodly chunk of their parts revenue stream.

I don't think with dealers it's black and white. They'll find ways to adapt, at least to a good degree, when demand persists. Retrofittable upgrades or whatever. (For example, when it becomes clear that EVs will be a large market, every dealer may want to be one of those who survive, and become the go to dealer for EVs.)

Well, obviously when EVs are the only game in town (or at least the big player) the dealers left will want to get into the business. There will be far fewer dealers required because there is far less service required. Before that, the dealers will try to stem the EV tide for as long as possible--just try to buy a Leaf from a dealer. The Volt is more dealer friendly because it still has the ICE which requires regular service just like every other hybrid.

As far as retrofitting goes, most people give that up after they turn twenty and have to pay for it and their other living expenses as well. Pouring money into a car to customize it seldom does anything but make a decent car almost un-driveable. In most cases the person who customizes their car gets rid of it within six months.

[jerry33]

The only thing the ICE really requires frequently is oil changes, and those have been steadily pushed out towards 10,000 mile intervals these days.

Assuming the engine doesn't blow up like the VW TDI with its 10,000 mile change interval.

Valve adjustments - not needed just about ever. Maybe around 100k intervals at most.

60,000 in Toyota.

Spark plugs - Platinum/iridium plugs have a 100k interval.

Still not zero.

Auto transmission fluid - 60-120k change interval if not longer.

Lab analysis of the Prius indicates 40,000 miles--even though Toyota doesn't specify an interval.

One thing you missed: engine-air-filter - typically 20-30k miles. But most cars have cabin air-filters that should be changed on a similar interval, so no big deal there.

Yes, i missed that. The cabin air filter is also part of an EV's maintenance so that's a wash.

Bear in mind that the car manufacturer sometimes extends the intervals for marketing reasons rather than longevity reasons. They're banking on people not keeping their cars long enough to notice any degradation, or at least getting them past the warranty period far enough so that no one will complain.

[jerry33]

And yes, cars today are by-and-large certainly more well made than cars of the 1960s.

[doug]

Mechanic's Worry: Electric Car Brakes Will Ruin My Business

[shokunin]

Good point, especially given that the average age of cars on the roads has pushed to an all time high -- over 11 years old. Some of that is ecomonically motivated -- "I can't afford to replace it" -- but what I'm seeing/hearing from a lot of people is need motivated -- "It works fine, I don't need to replace it." I keep saying that cars are made better now than they've ever been. There's a fair amount of proof.

Part of the "New Normal" the housing ATM has been cut off for several years and the economy hasn't been well for many families. At some point though, the cost to fix and the poor MPG will boost the car sales once consumer confidence and the jobs market improve. I know many families that are holding onto their cars for one more year or two, hoping for the economy to turn around first. Purely subjective, but most of people I know who have bought a replacement vehicle or returned their leased cars, have bought used / "pre-owned".

[mcornwell]

I don't think I've seen people mention the timing belt (or chain). Last I checked, the average Nissan or Toyota dealer charges $600-800 to replace, and this is every 60,000 - 90,000 miles. This is approximately double the cost of oil changes when calculated at cost per mile. I didn't reach that many miles on my old M3 or current S4 in order to warrant a replacement, but I can only imagine the dealer cost on a German vehicle, when a glorified oil change costs me $250 at Audi...

[strider]

I don't think I've seen people mention the timing belt (or chain). Last I checked, the average Nissan or Toyota dealer charges $600-800 to replace, and this is every 60,000 - 90,000 miles. This is approximately double the cost of oil changes when calculated at cost per mile. I didn't reach that many miles on my old M3 or current S4 in order to warrant a replacement, but I can only imagine the dealer cost on a German vehicle, when a glorified oil change costs me $250 at Audi...

Yep, I have a diesel Jeep Liberty and changing the timing belt on its lovely Italian motor is ~$1,500 every 100k miles. Plus while you're in there they should do the water pump, belt tensioners and pulleys, new serpentine belt, etc. All told it was over $2,000.

[jerry33]

I don't think I've seen people mention the timing belt (or chain). Last I checked, the average Nissan or Toyota dealer charges $600-800 to replace, and this is every 60,000 - 90,000 miles.

60,000 miles is the adjustment interval but replacement is far longer. My Prius has 140,000 on the original timing chain. (the belt only runs the engine water pump).