Gen III Range & Pricing Speculation

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A smaller car could get 20% more range out of existing batteries, making the 40kWh GenIII car get 192 miles of range if the Model S gets 160.

But there would be less batteries (cells) in a smaller box.

[Doug_G]

I suspect that they already have a clay model, but we won't see anything for at least a year.

In order to differentiate themselves in the market, it needs to have a range of at least 2X a Leaf. That said, I fully expect them to have different pack sizes available, and the $30k version might not be all that compelling. I would not be surprised if the 200+ mile version were $40k. That said, if they could bring out a $30k 200 mile car I think it would be an enormous success...

[vfx]

... That said, if they could bring out a $30k 200 mile car I think it would be an enormous success...

If that 200 is real-world you are understating the potential sales.

[Doug_G]

If that 200 is real-world you are understating the potential sales.

By "enormous success" I mean "world-changing".

[richkae]

Assume the 40kWh Model S gets 130 miles EPA range ( real world ).
Also assume that the current end consumer cost of the Model S battery is $20k for 40kWh and the rest of the car is $37k ( Total $57k )

Now hope that Tesla can make the GenIII 20% more efficient, so 40kWh gets you 156 miles of real world range.
Then hope they can build and sell the GenIII car minus battery for $22k, and a 40kWh battery for $15k - yielding $37k, which is $30k car after the tax credit - if it still exists.

That sounds like a tall order to me. I hope they can do it.
That car would have double the range of a Leaf, be better looking and more fun to drive - but I think to expect much more than that would be crazy.

[stopcrazypp]

Personally I expect the $30k Tesla (hopefully it actually retails for $30k before credit, not $37k) to have a 30-40kWh battery pack. I think it'll depend on what happens with the Infiniti LE (which will be its direct competitor).

I think it's a bit unrealistic to expect the $30k Tesla to have a much bigger battery than that. I expect you can option it up, but not for the base model to have that much range.

[Iz]

A 200,000 unit per year GenIII Tesla car will still only be selling to less than 1% of the car buying public.
Tesla does not need to meet the unreasonble expectations of the majority of the car buying public.

Agreed. If Tesla is selling that number of GEN III vehicles/year it should be excellent for the balance sheet.

[Grendal]

Personally I expect the $30k Tesla (hopefully it actually retails for $30k before credit, not $37k) to have a 30-40kWh battery pack. I think it'll depend on what happens with the Infiniti LE (which will be its direct competitor).

I think it's a bit unrealistic to expect the $30k Tesla to have a much bigger battery than that. I expect you can option it up, but not for the base model to have that much range.

Tesla has to make a profit. $30K base price seems way to low. I'd expect $37K to $45K before the (hopefully still around) $7500 tax break. And I hope Tesla keeps the luxury concept in that price point. BMW and Mercedes can have luxury smaller cars at that price point, so why not Tesla?

[stopcrazypp]

Tesla has to make a profit. $30K base price seems way to low. I'd expect $37K to $45K before the (hopefully still around) $7500 tax break. And I hope Tesla keeps the luxury concept in that price point. BMW and Mercedes can have luxury smaller cars at that price point, so why not Tesla?

If the tax credit was still around, I would be okay with that. But without the tax credit, I doubt they can reach the 100k annual target selling a car that starts with a base price of $37k-$45k. The 1 series and A3 starts at around $30k.

We'll have to see how the Infiniti LE and the BMW i3 is priced.

[Grendal]

We'll have to see how the Infiniti LE and the BMW i3 is priced.

The LE just doesn't have the range to be a realistic contender. Leaf range is just not Tesla range. The Leaf is currently $35K. Would the LE somehow be more reasonable? I'll bet $42K which leaves everything wide open for Tesla to step in and kick @ss.

Obama will win this election so the tax credit should make it to 2016. After that I'll bet it gets shot down by the new Republican administration.