Gen III Range & Pricing Speculation

[qwk]

I think they'll price them similar to how they've priced their current cars 29,500, 38,000, 50,000 (after tax credit).

Not to be a Debbie Downer, but I don't think that the Gen III is going to price that low. Add about $10k to each of those and that will most likely be the price that the Gen III will sell for after the Fed rebate.

[Iz]

The fed rebate probably will have a finite life at 200k vehicles or as collateral damage due to budget negotiations. For GEN III to really have a wide market share it needs to be priced low and have 200+ EPA range. All those battery chemistries we've been reading and debating about for several years have to come to fruition eventually.

[NotTarts]

Remember Tesla was aiming for a 25% profit margin on Model S sales. It's possible that they'd be able to lower that for Gen III in order to price it more competitively.

If you guess the cells cost about $400 per kWh:

40kWh - $60,000 list, $48,000 target ($16k cells, $32k other)
60kWh - $70,000 list, $56,000 target ($24k cells, $32k other)
85kWh - $80,000 list, $64,000 target ($34k cells, $30k other)

Let's say that they aim for a 20% margin on Gen III models starting at $40k before credit (30, 50, and 70 kWh options):

30kWh - $40,000 list, $33,000 target ($12k cells, $21k other)
50kWh - $50,000 list, $42,000 target ($20k cells, $22k other)
70kWh - $60,000 list, $50,000 target ($28k cells, $22k other)

So, they need to reduce other manufacturing costs by around $10k to hit the ~$30k price point after the tax credit. Might be achievable.

[gjunky]

Remember Tesla was aiming for a 25% profit margin on Model S sales. It's possible that they'd be able to lower that for Gen III in order to price it more competitively.

If you guess the cells cost about $400 per kWh:

40kWh - $60,000 list, $48,000 target ($16k cells, $32k other)
60kWh - $70,000 list, $56,000 target ($24k cells, $32k other)
85kWh - $80,000 list, $64,000 target ($34k cells, $30k other)

Let's say that they aim for a 20% margin on Gen III models starting at $40k before credit (30, 50, and 70 kWh options):

30kWh - $40,000 list, $33,000 target ($12k cells, $21k other)
50kWh - $50,000 list, $42,000 target ($20k cells, $22k other)
70kWh - $60,000 list, $50,000 target ($28k cells, $22k other)

So, they need to reduce other manufacturing costs by around $10k to hit the ~$30k price point after the tax credit. Might be achievable.

The cells for the GENIII better be much less than $400 per KwH or I don't think this car is going to exist. Elon has spoken about cells coming down, I believe into the $200 per KwH range (sorry, I don't remember the exact number). This would really change your cost breakdown a lot. The cells would be half the price and they could produce the rest of the car at the same cost as the model S. I doubt their manufacturing cost will stay that high though in the volumes they are planning for the GENIII.

[Rifleman]

Does anyone with a greater knowledge of manufacturing than me have and idea what making the Gen III out of steel instead of aluminum would do to the price? Would the higher weight mandate more batteries to get the desired range, negating any cost savings?

[JRP3]

Yes it probably would, as well as hurting performance.

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The cells for the GENIII better be much less than $400 per KwH or I don't think this car is going to exist.

I think the cells already are. I paid less than that three years ago for non commodity large format lithium cells, delivered to my door from China. Tesla is buying millions of commodity cells, their costs must be much lower.

[Quacker]

Anyone see the "one two one 7 two zero one two" banner at the top of the forum? In number form that is 12/17/2012, and if you right-click the image and click "view image" the file name is "g-iii". Does this mean something?

[alexkiritz]

Does anyone with a greater knowledge of manufacturing than me have and idea what making the Gen III out of steel instead of aluminum would do to the price? Would the higher weight mandate more batteries to get the desired range, negating any cost savings?

Aluminum's pretty cheap. $1-2 a pound. A better question is, Why are automakers still making cars out of steel?

[JRP3]

Anyone see the "one two one 7 two zero one two" banner at the top of the forum? In number form that is 12/17/2012, and if you right-click the image and click "view image" the file name is "g-iii". Does this mean something?

Yeah, there's a thread about it, called "Top Menu"

[vfx]

Elon said aluminum is so expensive for his rockets mused owning his own factory.