Half of all new cars will be electric

[ElSupreme]

I think the price-point for "the masses" needs to be lower than 30-45 and be more in the 20-30 range. Look at all the models across the manufactures that fall in that range.

Fusion, Escape, F-150, Malibu, Impala, Equinox, Camry, Rav 4, Altima, Rogue, Sonata, Santa Fe, Optima, Sorento...

While I don't have figures, I have to assume, just by opening my eyes on the road, that this price point is the majority of cars on the road. And yes, you can justify that the price someone is willing to buy will go up with reduced cost of ownership, but you also have to consider that when you get down in this price range, the reason people are buying them is they can't afford more. If they can spread out cost of ownership over years instead of paying it upfront with a more expensive elctric or hybrid, they do that.

So, for Elon's ""In 20 years more than half of new cars manufactured will be fully electric," Musk said. "I feel actually quite safe in that bet. That's a bet I will put money on." and "It's probably going to be in the 12- to 15-year time frame," he said, speaking at an event at Tesla's manufacturing plant in Fremont, where he handed over the keys to the first buyers of the new Model S sedan." statements, I think the 12-15 year time frame is more doable, but I think it will be closer to 15.

Gotta get that base price to 20 (optioned up to 30) for this to happen.

Don't forget about fuel savings. I spend $300 a month on fuel. I will probably spend ~$30 a month on electricity to charge my Model S. This dynamic is something that makes a $30,000 EV about the same as a $22,000 ICE vehicle. I think that as people figure this out TCO will become a selling point of ALL cars. It is sad it really isn't talked about as much as it should be.

This does require that people get approved for decent loans. But I got pre-approved for a $90k loan at 3.2% from USAA the other day poking around at "Tesla" on their car buying service (the roadster still is the only thing to show up). A $50k car loan is going to be a stretch for me.

[Steph]

I think the price-point for "the masses" needs to be lower than 30-45 and be more in the 20-30 range. Look at all the models across the manufactures that fall in that range.

Fusion, Escape, F-150, Malibu, Impala, Equinox, Camry, Rav 4, Altima, Rogue, Sonata, Santa Fe, Optima, Sorento...

While I don't have figures, I have to assume, just by opening my eyes on the road, that this price point is the majority of cars on the road. And yes, you can justify that the price someone is willing to buy will go up with reduced cost of ownership, but you also have to consider that when you get down in this price range, the reason people are buying them is they can't afford more. If they can spread out cost of ownership over years instead of paying it upfront with a more expensive elctric or hybrid, they do that.

So, for Elon's ""In 20 years more than half of new cars manufactured will be fully electric," Musk said. "I feel actually quite safe in that bet. That's a bet I will put money on." and "It's probably going to be in the 12- to 15-year time frame," he said, speaking at an event at Tesla's manufacturing plant in Fremont, where he handed over the keys to the first buyers of the new Model S sedan." statements, I think the 12-15 year time frame is more doable, but I think it will be closer to 15.

Gotta get that base price to 20 (optioned up to 30) for this to happen.

Your assumptions are wrong. The model S is already priced in the 20k range when you compare apples with apples.

Lets compare two cars. A Chevy Malibu at $20k (or any of the $20k cars listed) and a Base model S @ $50k.

Lease 5 years with 30% buy back: Model S: $675/month - Malibu:$ 280/months (at this time, the Malibu seems a bargain)

Cost of fuel for 20 000km / a year typical driver : Model S: $25/month - Malibu: 240 / month

Total: Model S: $700 /month - Malibu $520 / month. A difference of $180 / month with model S

That $180 difference is completely wiped out if you drive 30k km / year instead of the average 20k. If you drive 40k km, then the model S is cheaper then the Malibu.

Cost of gas I used is the current cost in Montreal of ~$1.30 / liter of regular gasoline.

I am omitting maintenance savings, no oil change, break change, almost no moving parts, up datable dashboard and car functionality, etc...

Model S is even free if you drive 50k km / year

[Arnold Panz]

I wouldn't assume Elon is correct on this. The reason is that oil companies will use every ounce of energy (and money) to fight the use of EVs to their (inevitable) death. Unlike many of the other examples of disruptive technologies that killed off industries (mp3, digital cameras etc.), the oil companies see this one coming. That's why George Bush always favored hydrogen over EVs, because that would (eventually, if it ever worked) be a decent substitute for oil companies to convert to for their gas stations.

Car dealers are also scared to death of EVs because of the lack of maintenance required, because maintenance is where they make most of their money.

I wouldn't underestimate the power and influence of the existing car/oil industry to do everything they can to discourage EVs, and that could inhibit what should be a fairly rapid expansion of the EV market compared to ICEs.

[vfx]

Your assumptions are wrong. The model S is already priced in the 20k range when you compare apples with apples. ...
Cost of fuel for 20 000km / a year typical driver : Model S: $25/month - Malibu: 240 / month .
I am omitting maintenance savings, no oil change, break change, almost no moving parts, up datable dashboard and car functionality, etc... .

The Model S battery range will be significantly reduced. The resale value on your example car and the Model S will be not be similar.

[brake]

[Steph]

The Model S battery range will be significantly reduced. The resale value on your example car and the Model S will be not be similar.

[brake]

So you think a 2012 model S will not sell for 15K in 5 years?

[vfx]

So you think a 2012 model S will not sell for 15K in 5 years?

Which one are you arguing for?

[Steph]

Which one are you arguing for?

I dont know, I'm lost. I think I did not understand your comment

My calculations assume a $5k buyback for the Malibu and $15k for the S.

[Teslawisher]

Steph and ElSupreme - I completely understand the "cost of ownership" argument. The point I am trying to make is those that buy the Malibu (most - obvious exceptions exist) do so because that is the most vehicle they can afford. They wouldn't have a chance in getting approved for a 90k loan (or even a 50k one). And while the argument of fuel savings, etc. is valid, if "most" can't afford the additional 30k up front (or additional 395/mo. lease), they won't buy the car. While they would end up spending that extra $ anyway in fuel, maintenance, etc., they will be better off spreading out that additional cost over time. This is why I feel the initial price point will have to drop lower than the 30-45k range for the "masses" car. I'm sorry, but a 3-series (who many consider to be GenIII's preliminary competition) is NOT a "car for the masses". The Malibu, Camry, Altima, Sonata, etc. etc. are.

[Steph]

Steph and ElSupreme - I completely understand the "cost of ownership" argument. The point I am trying to make is those that buy the Malibu (most - obvious exceptions exist) do so because that is the most vehicle they can afford. They wouldn't have a chance in getting approved for a 90k loan (or even a 50k one). And while the argument of fuel savings, etc. is valid, if "most" can't afford the additional 30k up front (or additional 395/mo. lease), they won't buy the car. While they would end up spending that extra $ anyway in fuel, maintenance, etc., they will be better off spreading out that additional cost over time. This is why I feel the initial price point will have to drop lower than the 30-45k range for the "masses" car. I'm sorry, but a 3-series (who many consider to be GenIII's preliminary competition) is NOT a "car for the masses". The Malibu, Camry, Altima, Sonata, etc. etc. are.

That is wrong financial thinking. With a lease, you have no upfront cost (other than cashdown sometimes) so you don't need capital.

Any financially smart person will know he will pay more for the lease but less for the fuel. Simple math. It just need to be repeated over and over for people to understand grade 3 maths.

[Teslawisher]

Guess I'm financially dumb. I fall into the BIGGGG boat of people I'm referring to.