Half of all new cars will be electric

[Doug_G]

Half of all new cars will be electric: Tesla CEO

Tesla Motors Inc Chief Executive Elon Musk, an entrepreneur known for his outsized ambition, on Friday made a stunning forecast: battery-powered cars will likely match the internal combustion engine in popularity by the middle of the next decade.

"In 20 years more than half of new cars manufactured will be fully electric," Musk said. "I feel actually quite safe in that bet. That's a bet I will put money on."

Musk, who divides his time between Tesla and his space exploration startup SpaceX, said it might even happen sooner than that.

"It's probably going to be in the 12- to 15-year time frame," he said, speaking at an event at Tesla's manufacturing plant in Fremont, where he handed over the keys to the first buyers of the new Model S sedan.

[mgemmell]

Agreed.

In fact I'd call that conservative. Let me explain my extreme position...

Switches to new technology are not always that linear... the switch to digital audio (CDs) and then to downloadable audio (MP3s)... the switch to digital cameras... the switch to digital cellular. etc. In 1990 few knew of email. By 2000 few didn't know. In 1990 who knew what www meant? In 2000 who didn't?

When the new technology provides clear unquestioned advantages (in the case of EVs they include cost per km, noise, mechanical simplicity, maintenance cost, space efficiency, environmental impact, performance...) and you add to that ever reducing costs of manufacture as volume increases, and the switch can be sudden and profound. We act as a herd, and when critical mass is reached it all of a sudden happens.

We may all here in TMC be early adopters and therefore have taken the leap before others, but when people stop and look at the cold hard facts I think they will switch quickly, sometime around 2016 to 2018.

For a friend of mine for instance, right now they don't entertain the idea of an EV, but they have said that when they are shown an attractive vehicle, that costs the same, is cheaper to run per km (mine is 10x cheaper when I charge on night tariff here), simple to maintain, silent, safe and good for the environment, they will look at the "campfire on wheels" that is an ICE and see it for what it is... a gramophone record player in a world of ipods. As the switch happens the resale value of ICEs will tank and everyone will see EVs as the only future they want to own (except for a few enthusiasts just as is the case with vinyl of course).

The beers are on me in 2018 if I'm wrong, but I have a feeling things may happen very quickly.

[Steph]

I agree.

My timeline for this is more ambitious, 5-10 years and most of the cars manufactured will be electric. I don't see why anyone would want to buy an ICE vehicle when operating costs of an EV is 10 times lower. Supply is the only bottleneck.

I also believe the ICE->Electric conversion will be a very big market in the coming years. We can't trash the entire world fleet of vehicle but they can be converted.

When all is said and done, EV just make more sense, economically, environmentally and practically. Range anxiety will be a thing of the past in just a few years when people are informed and FUD is gone.

[Citizen-T]

Well, we know what happened to the last guy that bet against Elon...

[mulder1231]

My timeline for this is more ambitious, 5-10 years and most of the cars manufactured will be electric. I don't see why anyone would want to buy an ICE vehicle when operating costs of an EV is 10 times lower. Supply is the only bottleneck.

Electric grid readiness may also be a bottleneck. I've read somewhere that the grid will only be able to support a 10% electric fleet by 2020.

[vfx]

Tesla's challenge in a few years .

Customer deciding to buy electric:

"I like manufacture X because the have been making cars for a hundred years and we have always bought X, but is their new electric car something I want, or to do purchase a Tesla because they have only been building electric cars for years and are known to be the best at that?

If for no other reason that's why other makers are toying with electric concepts and electric protoypes. So they can say "We have been building electrics for XX years!' Nissan did it when they came out with the Leaf. They touted all the EVs they had done before but never mentioned you could never really buy them.

[Steph]

Electric grid readiness may also be a bottleneck. I've read somewhere that the grid will only be able to support a 10% electric fleet by 2020.

Electric grid is just fine. The grid did not blow-up when everyone got electric dryers and washing machines. The grid was upgraded slowly but surely. An EV will not take more juice than a dryer.

There will be some local bottlenecks but noting major. It all depends on where you are. Here in Quebec, we have hydro-electricity coming out of our butts... no problem with the grid here.

[78Lion]

I a bit more skeptical that that. In 2014 or 2015 Tesla will probably introduce an all electric car in the 30-45 price range. I don't know of anybody else that will have an all electric car at a lower price point in the same timeframe with reasonable all electric range. For half the autos to be all electric in the next 5 years, the major manufacturers need to introduce these cars and this price point today. I don't beleive they can with reasonable mileage limits (120 miles per charge) until another leap in battery capability happens. That doesn't look like it will happen for at least 3-4 years.

[Teslawisher]

I think the price-point for "the masses" needs to be lower than 30-45 and be more in the 20-30 range. Look at all the models across the manufactures that fall in that range.

Fusion, Escape, F-150, Malibu, Impala, Equinox, Camry, Rav 4, Altima, Rogue, Sonata, Santa Fe, Optima, Sorento...

While I don't have figures, I have to assume, just by opening my eyes on the road, that this price point is the majority of cars on the road. And yes, you can justify that the price someone is willing to buy will go up with reduced cost of ownership, but you also have to consider that when you get down in this price range, the reason people are buying them is they can't afford more. If they can spread out cost of ownership over years instead of paying it upfront with a more expensive elctric or hybrid, they do that.

So, for Elon's ""In 20 years more than half of new cars manufactured will be fully electric," Musk said. "I feel actually quite safe in that bet. That's a bet I will put money on." and "It's probably going to be in the 12- to 15-year time frame," he said, speaking at an event at Tesla's manufacturing plant in Fremont, where he handed over the keys to the first buyers of the new Model S sedan." statements, I think the 12-15 year time frame is more doable, but I think it will be closer to 15.

Gotta get that base price to 20 (optioned up to 30) for this to happen.

[Grendal]

I certainly see the points everyone is making and I'd think I'd be more along the lines of Elon's guess. The ICE has an enormous amount of momentum and history. I agree that given the right circumstances that there will be a mass migration away from the ICE, but they have to be the right circumstances. Those critical areas are recharge time, pack capacity/distance, battery cost, and convenience. We are currently seeing a gradual improvement in each of those areas that leads to Elon's prediction. So, unless there is a major breakthrough or battery prices drop radically then I think Elon has a good feel for where we are going. A game changer is a game changer and that can suddenly change the playing field but how can you predict that?