40 kWh dilemma

[bint2k]

[QUOTE=ElSupreme;153767]My driving (right now) is pretty much the same as yours. Four days I travel about 60 miles, the final day I travel ~75-80 miles.

on the final day those extra miles, are they to the rippers and back?

[ddruz]

Rifleman, I am in a similar position as you with respect to deciding on batter size. If the battery did not degrade the 40 kwh would more than suffice. Currently I drive a Leaf and actually make it work fine, but with little room for unforeseen detours or emergencies, which is why I am looking forward to the Model S. I agree with you that the big unknown is the degradation. The 2% per year figure seems pretty conservative given what the Roadster owners have been saying particularly because you won't need to use the upper or lower 10% of the battery very often where most of the battery strain seems to reside.

For what it's worth, I am able to get well above the EPA 73 miles per charge on the Leaf just by driving sensibly. I'd have to do jack rabbit starts, keep my AC on full blast all the time and drive under power right up to the stop light and apply my brakes at the last minute to get only 73 miles per charge. Similarly I expect sensible driving in Model S will give us much more than whatever the EPA number it has. We need to wait to see that before a truly informed decision can be made. It is entirely possible the 40 kwh car will weigh less than the 85 kwh car and the EPA number may be a nice surprise too.

You need also to consider in addition to your miles driven between charges the topography of your route and the amount of climate control you use. Both can be big drains. If your route is mostly flat and your climate control usage is minimal my guess is the 40 kwh pack will work fine for you. However, if you have a lot of tall hills and/or use the climate control extensively, if you keep the car long enough at some point the degradation could be enough to push you over what the battery can deliver.

My personal plan is to wait till the actual range numbers come out on the 40 kwh car before deciding. But if I had to make a decision at this point I would buy the 40 kwh car and take my chances on battery degradation. I have found there are lots more public charging stations going up all the time and even with a J1772 public charge point, a half hour plug in can buy a few extra miles to make it home in a pinch.

[petero]

My two cents. I would go with the 60 kWh battery. I agree the 40 will fulfill 90% of your daily commuting needs today. Originally, I was going to get the 40 but keep in mind the 160 charged to 80%=128, if you are driving at 75mph the 128 becomes 102, and after 8-10 years allow another 20% and you may looking at 82 mile range.

First, the 40 may not give you enough of a cushion on the longer trips. Second, you never know what the future will bring, new job with longer commute, new home, or something unexpected. Third, the 0-60 performance on the 60 is 5.9 which is very close to the 85.

It may be a bit rude of me, but it is only money! Why risk compromising? This is a rare extravagance , I have never purchased such an expensive car.

[ddruz]

IMO petero's viewpoint makes sense a lot of sense too. If you can afford the extra 10K then by all means the 60 kwh buys you insurance. But if that 10K is significant to you, and it is to many people, the decision between the two battery packs becomes quite important.

[drees]

Don't forget to take into account weather when figuring range.

If you need to run the heater or defroster that will reduce your range. Cold weather will also make the car less efficient due to higher friction and thicker air.

If it is raining, water on the road will reduce your range. You can count on 10-15% reduction in range if the roads are anything more than damp.

[dsm363]

I have always planned on getting the 40 kWh. My daily drive is 65 miles round trip, with one day a week being about 90 miles. A car with 160 miles range seemed perfect for me (especially as I will still have a second car)

What does the hive mind think, is my drive to long for the 40, or should I stay the course, and hope for the best down the road?

While you can do your driving on the 40 kWh pack (especially if you can get work to install an outlet), I think you'd be much happier with the 60 kWh pack. It would free up your driving in standard mode almost regardless of driving style or weather. If you can get your work to install an outlet then you're set.

I think it is wise to use worst case numbers as your guide until there are adequate charging places at work or Superchargers where you would need them. You just want to get in your car and drive. I never even look at my range in the Roadster because my driving is well under a standard mode charge. If I was driving at 80% of my standard mode range, I'd have to pay much closer attention.

[MikeK]

I've driven electric vehicles for 12 years. First an EV-1, now a RAV4-EV. My RAV's real range is 80 miles if you drive 65-70 on the freeway, and I can hit 100 miles with very careful driving.

I had originally planned to get the 40kWh pack in my Model S, but I decided on the 60 for the following reasons:

• The Model S will be my only car
• I occasionally want to drive farther than I can comfortably drive the RAV on a given day
• Starting with the original 160 mile range for the Model S 40kWh pack and factoring in real world driving, HVAC usage, pack wear and calendar life, it seemed like the Model S range would drop to pretty close to my RAV's max range after some years of driving, and today, there are days that I have to take the Prius because I can't quite get there with the RAV (and I plan to sell that Prius!)
• Perhaps most crucially, the 60kWh car will be able to Supercharge, while the 40kWh will not

I think it's that last point that's one of the biggest deciding factors. For a longer trip, the extra range of the 60kWh combined with a Supercharger will make certain trips feasible that I just couldn't do with a 40kWh car.

[VolkerP]

The 60kWh car will be able to Supercharge, while the 40kWh will not.

Yes, but there is a - yet unknown - cost for adding this option to the 60kWh Model S. I made a poll on that, with result that it should be around $400. Still some money.

[Rifleman]

I am starting to lean to the 60 kWh battery. When you are already taking a loan for 50% of the vehicle, whats another $10,000? I am going to wait until we get some real world data on the 40 and 60 to make my final decision.

[ElSupreme]

My two cents. I would go with the 60 kWh battery. I agree the 40 will fulfill 90% of your daily commuting needs today. Originally, I was going to get the 40 but keep in mind the 160 charged to 80%=128, if you are driving at 75mph the 128 becomes 102, and after 8-10 years allow another 20% and you may looking at 82 mile range.

First, the 40 may not give you enough of a cushion on the longer trips. Second, you never know what the future will bring, new job with longer commute, new home, or something unexpected. Third, the 0-60 performance on the 60 is 5.9 which is very close to the 85.

It may be a bit rude of me, but it is only money! Why risk compromising? This is a rare extravagance , I have never purchased such an expensive car.

IMO petero's viewpoint makes sense a lot of sense too. If you can afford the extra 10K then by all means the 60 kwh buys you insurance. But if that 10K is significant to you, and it is to many people, the decision between the two battery packs becomes quite important.

I think you should save the $10k now. And save up for a replacement battery. You can keep your payments lower for the first five years. Save up for another year, then buy/finance another (larger, perhaps better) battery pack. I wouldn't count on having the same battery pack for more than 8 years. The same that I wouldn't expect an ICE to go over 200,000 miles without major repairs.