Which cars delivered when?

FalconNinetyD · Jun 21, 2012

While formulating in my head which month I might get my Model S, I thought I'd put it down on a spreadsheet to see if I can nail it down a little more accurately. Based on the thread Delaying Delivery of Model S / Waiting until other options become available, it sounds like about 25% of the folks here might delay delivery for some reason (specifically because of option availability or financial reasons). Adding to that that maybe 5% or so of reservationists might have fallen off the list over the past 18-36 months (financial, lost interest, deaths). Also, I'm guessing Canadian and European homogenization won't be done until 1Q 2013.

I had formulated in my head and was pretty sure my P2747 would be delivered in November, but I was secretly hoping that somehow it might make it in October. Now that I've put it down on a spreadsheet, I'm guessing maybe I'll be late November

Comments and criticisms appreciated!

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(Mods, I modified the image, but the forum seems to still post the original one, and I can't seem to delete the first one)

ibcs · Jun 21, 2012

I hope your right looking at your chart moves me to July instead of September as quoted. You might be a little optimistic on projections. Hopefully as we get more data you can keep updating your chart for everyone.

richkae · Jun 21, 2012

I don't think they will deliver 300 cars in July. I hope they deliver at least 141 though.
Where does the R439 number come from? I am pretty sure that a lot of those upgraded to sig - I know I did.

NigelM · Jun 21, 2012

I'd like to dream that you're right about July but in reality I think it's going to start a little slower. That said, the target is to deliver 5,000 cars by year end so the ramp-up has to start sometime.

BTW, you have SS on your list. If those are the Sig Specials, they come before the Sigs. Also *richkae* is right, there could easily be a couple of hundred not compressed that we don't know about. I was also an R number and upgraded to Sig Special.

FalconNinetyD · Jun 21, 2012

I got the #'s from the Model S Tally thread.

I might have been too optimistic about the 1st month or so of deliveries. Having seen the factory in October, and seeing the recent videos that Tesla has posted, I think the factory is up to the #'s, but who knows about suppliers and we all know Tesla has some serious quality standards, so perhaps they will ramp up slower than I've estimated. I know Elon is famous for under promising and over delivering, so I'm holding out hope that things will ramp up quickly.

brianman · Jun 21, 2012

SSL is before S. Your table has it flipped. FYI

FalconNinetyD · Jun 21, 2012

Oops, I think I knew that.

Corrected and revised estimates:

Adm · Jun 21, 2012

No Canadians here?

FalconNinetyD · Jun 21, 2012

As I mentioned in my post, "Also, I'm guessing Canadian and European homogenization won't be done until 1Q 2013."

Have we heard otherwise that there will be Canadian Sigs delivered in 2012?

linaser · Jun 21, 2012

mcornwell said:
As I mentioned in my post, "Also, I'm guessing Canadian and European homogenization won't be done until 1Q 2013."

Have we heard otherwise that there will be Canadian Sigs delivered in 2012?

At the annual shareholder meeting Elon told the investors, that "...in about 6 months, we'll bring Model S cars in Europe...".

So it would also be reasonable to assume, that some cars (Signatures?) will be delivered to Europe in late 2012.

Because he didn't mention Canada, I would guess, that delivery will start there even sooner.

edit: source: 2012 Shareholder Meeting | Tesla Motors at about 22:20

adhawan · Jun 21, 2012

We were told to expect our Canadian Signature by October. He said Canadian Signatures would be delivered at the tail end of the US Signatures.

richkae · Jun 21, 2012

There are only 1000 US signature cars.
The reservation numbers go higher than 1000 because there are holes in the number sequence for people who canceled or gave up their signature for a regular production model.
The "Special" Signatures for people who already have Roadsters are included in the 1000 total cars.

I was originally P56 which was one of the "R" numbers, but when I upgraded to the signature model, I abandoned that number. I bet that more than 50 of the "R" numbers are abandoned because those people upgraded to Signatures.

VolkerP · Jun 22, 2012

mcornwell said:
As I mentioned in my post, "Also, I'm guessing Canadian and European homogenization won't be done until 1Q 2013."

From experience I have to tell you that any homogenization even within EU takes years. Anyway, here is my first try to homogenize Canada with EU :biggrin:

agileone · Jun 22, 2012

linaser said:
Because he didn't mention Canada, I would guess, that delivery will start there even sooner.

They have been talking of 3 months after the start, so I am expecting the 200 Sig to be done in september, before US General Production, no ?

DrDave · Jun 22, 2012

mcornwell said:
I got the #'s from the Model S Tally thread.

I might have been too optimistic about the 1st month or so of deliveries. Having seen the factory in October, and seeing the recent videos that Tesla has posted, I think the factory is up to the #'s, but who knows about suppliers and we all know Tesla has some serious quality standards, so perhaps they will ramp up slower than I've estimated. I know Elon is famous for under promising and over delivering, so I'm holding out hope that things will ramp up quickly.

I agree, the initial ramp will be slower - big difference in running one/day as the VP suggested in the recent article and even 10/day. Lots of system bugs will be exposed early, would expect a steeper ramp in a couple months time

Mike_Schlechter · Jun 22, 2012

I really hope these projections are correct, as I'm P457 and have a wager on getting the car before Halloween.

AndyM · Jun 22, 2012

VolkerP said:
From experience I have to tell you that any homogenization even within EU takes years. Anyway, here is my first try to homogenize Canada with EU :biggrin:

Love the artwork, Volker!
I'm not sure Canada is even homogenized... Quebec, for example.

FalconNinetyD · Jun 22, 2012

Argh, spellcheck FAIL.

AndyM · Jun 22, 2012

mcornwell said:
Argh, spellcheck FAIL.

Je m'excuse... "Québec"

NigelM · Jun 22, 2012

At least one car to be delivered on July 1st? Twitter

Which cars delivered when?

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