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Thread: Model X Comparison and Total Cost of Ownership

  1. #1

    Model X Comparison and Total Cost of Ownership

    I have been trying to justify the speculated high price of the Model X by comparing it to other cars. I have no problem convincing myself, but my wife will be a lot harder. 95k for a car is not reasonable for a lot of people, but if I can show here that the cost is much lower compared to other ICE cars that she would consider, then I may have a chance at getting the battery size and options that I want.

    We need a car that seats 6 - 7, so I have compared large SUVs for the most part. I don't like minivans and am not aware of an EV minivan. I estimated the price of the X using Model S prices and options. I am hoping they will be very close. The TCO data I used is based on what I found at Edmunds and Kelly Blue Book. Cost of fuel is based on prices in Ottawa, Canada. Some of the vehicles also require premium gas, which accounts for the higher prices. I estimated the depreciation based on the lowest amount out of all of the vehicles and took off a bit more because I believe the X will hold it value more (maybe this is wishful thinking?). This seems to have been the case with the RAV 4 EVs that can be found on eBay, but these used a different battery technology, so it may not be a valid comparison.

    Maintenance and repair are areas that I have no idea. For repairs, I went with the lowest number for the ICE cars. My estimate for maintenance is likely completely off.

    At around 8 years the Model X becomes the cheapest car to own and operate.

    Any changes that members would recommend? I fear i might have played with the numbers in the X's favour a little too much.

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    Model X P15

  2. #2
    S532 # XS27 AnOutsider's Avatar
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    Apr 2009
    I suck at number games, but if you want to be fair (maybe you don't ), might want to throw in the old and new Rav 4 EVs? Less range, but as you noted, the old Rav 4 still goes strong, and the new one has better amenities and a lower price point than the X. Though if you're going for higher mileage capabilities, that's sort of a moot point.
    Signature Model S | Signature Model X (??)

  3. #3
    Senior Member Lloyd's Avatar
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    Jan 2011
    San Luis Obispo, CA
    Many of the Rav4's have had to replace their battery pack. I'm not sure that the battery pack will outlast the vehicle in most cases. To be fair you need to factor that in as well. Say you get 5000 charges out of your battery, and it will cost $20,000 to replace it when due. These are guesses and that is all anyone can do, but it is definately not free. So $4.00 per full charge, I believe is a fair estimate of battery wear and tear.

    Quote Originally Posted by AnOutsider View Post
    I suck at number games, but if you want to be fair (maybe you don't ), might want to throw in the old and new Rav 4 EVs? Less range, but as you noted, the old Rav 4 still goes strong, and the new one has better amenities and a lower price point than the X. Though if you're going for higher mileage capabilities, that's sort of a moot point.
    Tesla/Rav4EV, P+17252

  4. #4
    V1538 Zextraterrestrial's Avatar
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    Mar 2010
    Humboldt, CA
    I think your depreciation is a little low. Most higher priced cars depreciate that much just out the door. How much have roadsters been going for that have 40K miles or so on them? even with a good battery they are $65K to 85K maybe? (from what I think I have seen, not sure about miles/price combos)

    Not bad overall but I think it should be a little more.
    - Joules 12/1/12 - Classic P85 - Grey&Lace #369 Zextraterrestials S(tory)

  5. #5
    Senior Member smorgasbord's Avatar
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    Jun 2011
    SF Bay Area
    This is for Model S, but should be pretty applicable to Model X: Teslanomics

    I personally think they're being too optimistic on residual value, because people will be worried about remaining battery life for a while yet.

  6. #6
    Are you assuming constant fuel prices over the time period?
    That is a very significant mistake.

  7. #7
    Member DuncanWatson's Avatar
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    Apr 2012
    Seattle, WA
    Gas Prices will increase. I have been using $0.33/year as a conservative estimate of gas price increase. I assume that the price increases weekly over the period in question for simplicity. My suggestions is that you add this to your TCO.

    opps forgot link: Rising Gas Prices: How High Has it Gone Over the Years? [CHARTS]
    This might help you decide how much to increase gas costs.

  8. #8
    The annual required Roadster service is $600 or so. After 8 years that would be another $4,800 in maintenance. I don't know what the service plan will cost for the Model S and X. The other thing to worry about is what happens when your UMC or other charge cable breaks. I would plan on $600 or so every 5 years. Also don't forget you may need to pay an electrician $500 or so to install the outlet and more if you are having issues with your circuit. One unfortunate thing I have found is that a lot of the money you save on gas can easily be spend on electricians and cables so over time there may not be a huge "fuel" saving.

  9. #9
    Senior Member Grendal's Avatar
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    Jan 2012
    Santa Fe, New Mexico
    If you are just using the "this is more cost effective in the long run" argument then you're setting yourself up for conflicts in the future. I'd promote the intangibles like "we're going to be the first in the world to own one of these" and "we're helping to create a better future." Just a thought.

  10. #10
    '08 #383 SByer's Avatar
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    Oct 2007
    Cupertino, CA
    How about 'EVs just drive better.'

    The 911 was mobile therapy, the Roadster, much more so. That's worth something. How much? Hard to say, but last week when it was 80 out, and they had just finished micro-grinding the commute lane on Hwy 85 (which is a parking lot in the other two lanes), it was worth quite a bit.

    Speaking of which, what are the charges on some of the HOV/toll lanes during commute hours? In areas with that sort of thing, should that be part of the TCO calculation?

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