2012 Model S launch vs. upcoming US elections

VolkerP said:

Tesla's gonna take a lot of heat launching Model S so close to U.S. presidential elections. Even if nothing goes wrong, the cars work OK, customers are happy, no re-calls -- the GOP will open fire, that's for sure.
Might I suggest that EU deliveries are brought forward :biggrin: (running & ducking)

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I'm not sure who I trust less, you or the Republicans. Seems like you've got a sneaky strategy to get your car first! The GOP should LOVE Tesla - American start-up, American technology, American innovation, selling a great product to the world, etc.
Actually when I visited TMC for the October event, I was impressed with the number of German staff and the amount of German technology at the plant. Thanks Volker!

AnOutsider said:

I think the fire will be drawn to the energy loans Tesla got.

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Which, in the case of a successful S launch, can be claimed to be working.

AnOutsider said:

.....it will likely be spun to be paying for toys for the rich.....

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Eh, a "Democrat" argument....?

AnOutsider said:

Yes, in a fair and rational world. In this one however, it will likely be spun to be paying for toys for the rich, or the DoE having a 1 in X success rate etc.

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You forgot to mention that they will spin the DOE loan as a $500M gift to Tesla that never has to be repaid, each S is sold at a loss on the taxpayer dime, etc, etc, etc.

NigelM said:

Eh, a "Democrat" argument....?

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That's how backwards the GOP has become. To be fair - I wouldn't mind seeing the tax credit diminish in value with the sales price of the vehicle to eliminate this argument. After all, how many of you spending $90k+ on a Model S would be priced out if it didn't qualify for the tax credit?

drees said:

After all, how many of you spending $90k+ on a Model S would be priced out if it didn't qualify for the tax credit?

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I would. Or, more accurately, it'd be beyond the cost/benefit ratio I'm willing to accept.

I would happily give up the tax credit in return for stopping the gasoline subsidies.

If Tesla's launch will play a part of the 2012 presidential election, an argument can be made either way (and probably will). Kinda interesting that Tesla owners and rez holders are affluent enough to be Republicans, but green enough to be Democrats. Personally, I can't decide what I am, so I'm an Independent.

If I had to bet, GOP is more apt to focus on the challenges of Fisker and the failure at Solyndra, rather than the (highly) probable success at Tesla.

Wouldn't it be an awesome statement about American innovation to see the President driving a Model S (whichever guy wins)?

drees said:

After all, how many of you spending $90k+ on a Model S would be priced out if it didn't qualify for the tax credit?

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The answer - Almost none.

richkae said:

I would happily give up the tax credit in return for stopping the gasoline subsidies.

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To be fair, I would give up my tax credit too if my tax dollars did not have to go for oil subsidies.
There was something on the show "Young Turks" which show and they said 122 Billion of subsidies and breaks to oil companies in the US over 10 years- that's enough to give tax breaks to 16 million EVs (or about 1/10-1/20 the US car fleet)- and in theory, gas prices for the other gassers should drop 10% so the rest of the tax payers should save that amount of money over 1 year too.

Without the tax breaks and subsidies gas prices would be 20-25% higher, which would make EVs WITHOUT the tax breaks more economicaly

Dan5 said:

Without the tax breaks and subsidies gas prices would be 20-25% higher, which would make EVs WITHOUT the tax breaks more economicaly

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I think more than that - but I think the entire bill for the Iraq war should be paid for with gas taxes.

MarkR said:

drees said:

After all, how many of you spending $90k+ on a Model S would be priced out if it didn't qualify for the tax credit?

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The answer - Almost none.

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I'd disagree. A lot of potential Model S buyers (not necessarily active on this forum) including myself are going to be very, very price-sensitive; most of us are seeking to buy a car that's twice - or more - as costly as any car that we've ever bought. The federal tax credit is a tremendous help!

The 40kWh pack is what it is (not too much over a Leaf's range, no supercharging, etc.) and may not be attractive enough to a lot of cost-conscious buyers who might settle for a Leaf, Focus Electric or Volt instead. That leaves the costlier tiers which are made that much more affordable (relatively speaking) with the aid of the tax credit.

Every new radical shift from the status quo needs some sort of nudge from the Govt. (the only entity that can afford to do so without necessarily worrying about the bottomline) and it's up to the politicians to defend it.

gg_wants_a_tesla said:

I'd disagree. A lot of potential Model S buyers (not necessarily active on this forum) including myself are going to be very, very price-sensitive; most of us are seeking to buy a car that's twice - or more - as costly as any car that we've ever bought. The federal tax credit is a tremendous help!

The 40kWh pack is what it is (not too much over a Leaf's range, no supercharging, etc.) and may not be attractive enough to a lot of cost-conscious buyers who might settle for a Leaf, Focus Electric or Volt instead. That leaves the costlier tiers which are made that much more affordable (relatively speaking) with the aid of the tax credit.

Every new radical shift from the status quo needs some sort of nudge from the Govt. (the only entity that can afford to do so without necessarily worrying about the bottomline) and it's up to the politicians to defend it.

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To be fair, the question was posed "how many of you spending $90k+ on a Model S would be priced out", meaning the ones splurging away on the 85-model... I can see how the spending an extra 30-40k over the base would be an indicator that $7500 would not make or break the purchase. If you're struggling to get the 40 or even 60, then yes the tax credit will matter.

Personally I'm in the grey-zone. I'm going for the 85 or bust, but the tax credit will still definitely be a factor.

Dan5 said:

... Without the tax breaks and subsidies gas prices would be 20-25% higher, which would make EVs WITHOUT the tax breaks more economicaly

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Almost every credible economist refutes this. Republican, Democrat, or Independent. Gas prices are determined by a world-wide market and the subsidies have little effect on the price at the pump.

If the tax credit were non-existent I would not be priced out. However, I would have to either get the 40kWh pack or cut out several options (air suspension, paint, pano roof). I've owned about 9 cars, all used. The cost of my Model S will be equal to the total cost of all the vehicles I've owned (less maintenance ).

hcsharp said:

Almost every credible economist refutes this. Republican, Democrat, or Independent. Gas prices are determined by a world-wide market and the subsidies have little effect on the price at the pump.

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Yes, despite the US heading for an oil-surplus in terms of domestic production vs imports (see the recent excellent TIME magazine article - for subscribers only), at the pump, we are at the mercy of global markets which are currently being swayed by increasing consumption in China and India.

Trnsl8r said:

To be fair, the question was posed "how many of you spending $90k+ on a Model S would be priced out", meaning the ones splurging away on the 85-model... I can see how the spending an extra 30-40k over the base would be an indicator that $7500 would not make or break the purchase. If you're struggling to get the 40 or even 60, then yes the tax credit will matter.

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Exactly - $7,500 on a $57k car is substantial. On a $97k car? Not quite as much. The question is - how much more would those customers be willing to pay?

Trnsl8r said:

Personally I'm in the grey-zone. I'm going for the 85 or bust, but the tax credit will still definitely be a factor.

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I think a lot of people are - I do think that the tax credit will get more people into a higher capacity car than it otherwise might. Those that might only get the 40 kWh car without the tax credit will be able to get the 60 kWh car for only $2,500 more. Same for the 60 / 85 kWh cars.

But beyond that - you're paying to be first in line (Signature) or for more performance.

I personally don't think that phasing the credit out as prices goes up is all that good of an idea - what I'd like to see is the tax credit turned into a rebate - so there's no issues w/people having to pay the entire amount up front and either tweak their withholdings or wait for tax-day to get the money back - plus it ensures that people with less than $7,500 of tax liability can get the full credit without leasing - and perhaps reduce the credit for cars over $50k on a sliding scale where a $100k car rebate is cut in half.

IMO people who can afford it should make every effort to invest the tax credit money into renewable energy - enough to offset consumption of their driving. $7,500 is enough to buy at least 1 kW of grid-tied solar (more if you buy a bigger system) which will generate around 1,200 kWh depending on where you live before rebates/credits. Assume your after rebate price is $3/watt which means that $10k can buy a 3 kW system. That will be enough PV to offset over 10,000 miles of driving a year.

drees said:

... what I'd like to see is the tax credit turned into a rebate - so there's no issues w/people having to pay the entire amount up front and either tweak their withholdings or wait for tax-day to get the money back - plus it ensures that people with less than $7,500 of tax liability can get the full credit without leasing - ...

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Amen to that brother...