So assuming nobody drops out, the #4000 number is right over the 5000 for the year edge, so they would probably be in January (again, assuming Tesla hits their targets). Of course, there's no way to count how many holes in the list there are. Upgrade to sigs (assuming the prior sig didn't jump in front of the P line), cancels, and one other that i'm not sure you are counting - how many people are going to be pushed back because they want either the 40kwh battery, no air suspension, red color? Or how many are going to defer because they need to see some of the details finalized, or need a test drive? I'm guessing the amount that frequent this forum is pretty low, but remember there's hundreds or thousands of other res holders that aren't as rabid as this group. *grin*
Frankly, i think the more difficult part for tesla (as far as meeting their targets) is going to be actually DELIVERING that many cars this year. I know we've had some discussion of that topic, but the logistics of getting them delivered (and not just built) seems daunting.
And yes - i'm concerned for tax reasons as well. Would love to get that refund on my 2012 taxes.