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Anti-EV folks are going to jump up and down yelling "See, range is terrible, EVs don't work with real usage and are going to strand you! Telsa was misleading you!".Originally Posted by Uncle Ron
The fact the range never really changed won't matter. We all know this stuff for what it is, but I'm dreading the firestorm of negativity when Tesla/Nissan/etc have to announce the lowered ranges.
The Anti's will definitely play this up. Hopefully we all know better. I am still cautiously optimistic that the model s will not take the 30% hit that the leaf took on the EPA rating. If I had to take a bet on what the EPA rating for the model s will be, I would wager the following :
40 KW : 140 miles
60 KW : 185 miles
85 KW : 255 miles
Hopefully the numbers are higher than this. If they are significantly lower, this will start costing some sales. I am in a situation were the only S i can afford is the 40, but I drive 100 miles round trip one day a week, so I need to know that I have a 120+ mile car even in the middle of winter. A model S rated at 140 will do this for me, but one rated at 120 probably would not give me enough of a safety margin, forcing me to either wait for blue star, or buy an ICE.
I would hope that any investor already understands that manufacture rating and EPA rating are two different things, and an EPA rating lower than the 160/230/300 will not have a huge impact on stock price.
When the (inevitably lower) EPA ratings are announced, might be a good time to dive into the stock when it (inevitably) gets hammered for a brief while atleast!
But if EPA change their way of calculating, will not all carmanufacturers face the same problem of less optimistic consumptionlevels?
ICE in the first place!!! (worce dragcoefficent compared to a slick EV)
If EPA, does more start/stop citydriving, and afterwards 60mph, I think the hit on range will not be 30% but maybe 15% (just guessing)
star/stop for an ICE is hell!
Good thought. Maybe there's hope for my $29 limit order yet.
I don't think that matters. If Tesla and, say, Nissan were launching at the same time and the public saw both numbers get hammered at once, then perhaps there would be some understanding. As it stands though, Tesla has been saying 3 numbers for years, and when the car comes to market with numbers lower than they've been touting, the average joe isn't going to dive into WHY or even care, they're just going to think "I knew it was too good to be true" or similar.
OT.
Tesla's range and the new EPA testing
What's Tesla's scheme regarding range estimates and the new EPA drive cycle? Tesla says,
So why not re-release the new range numbers? Tesla certainly has the software to duplicate and estimate the new range numbers. Not to mention a dyno to put a real car on to duplicate the new testing."The EPA’s new fuel economy requirements will require us to label Model S utilizing new and different energy efficiency testing methodologies. These methodologies differ from the one we have used to estimate the range of the vehicles at a steady speed of 55 miles per hour and could reduce the range reported on the required labeling of our vehicles by up to 30% as compared to our current estimates."
Is the plan to say "We had a 300 range base tested on the old EPA drive cycle. Now the new "255" range (Rifleman's #) is based on the new EPA test. Please buy our car anyway. It's not our fault the EPA changed everything." ?
OR
Has Tesla already been giving us range numbers based on the new EPA drive cycle they new was coming 5 years ago? That would be awesome. (but the above quote does not support that).
Certainly a 30 percent drop is worst case and is unlikely. I would think that any technology based range gains that Tesla has engineered during construction will sadly go to make up the "loss" that the EPA has given the numbers. The software engineers did some amazing work on the Roadster during development. I can easily imagine that this round will be even better.
And what about those 320 mile wheels? Did Tesla say 320 or simply + 20 miles on whatever range package you bought for your S?
The world loves to be deceived.
I guess Tesla's range at constant 55mph will not change! That has nothing to do with EPA
EPA range is a mix of driving-situations! I am not aware Tesla already unveiled an estimated EPA!
They must have meant 320. If your EV had a range of 10 miles, you certainly couldn't just slap a cap on your wheels and expect 30 miles of range. It must be a percentage more.
So 300 is to 320
As 255 is to 272
I would agree with you. Though I would love a set of those magic wheel covers in my trunk!
The world loves to be deceived.
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