TSLA Investor Discussions

[raymond]

Technically, i'm in the float cause I have a bid.

In understand what you're saying, but that's not what I get from definitions of "float" I find on the web. What I most commonly read is that you are in the float because you don't have restricted shares nor own more than 5% of TSLA.

The actual (free) float required to cover the shorts is therefore (much) less than the reported float.

Unless I'm mistaken, in which case I would gladly be corrected.

[bmek]

I like writing some August 18, 2012 $27.00 puts that sell for $1.25. Beyond that time, the market risk with the U.S. elections, etc. is huge and TSLA will move with the markets. If the puts are exercised then the stock can always be sold, probably above $25.75 and still come out ok. Perhaps earn a premium in the short term. Thoughts?

[Steph]

I like writing some August 18, 2012 $27.00 puts that sell for $1.25. Beyond that time, the market risk with the U.S. elections, etc. is huge and TSLA will move with the markets. If the puts are exercised then the stock can always be sold, probably above $25.75 and still come out ok. Perhaps earn a premium in the short term. Thoughts?

Are you insane?

[KBF]

What's the catalyst(s) that will do that? In a couple of months (say end of Sept), we'll have 500 cars shipped and maybe a Supercharger announcement. Are you expecting more than 500 cars?

No, I think that the analysts (the ones that are not shorting the stock) will be raising their TSLA target price as the plan falls into place. I think Morgan Stanley has had TSLA pegged at around $40/share when they were still estimating 3000 cars this year, and it seems like Tesla may be at least close to 5000. I read the transcript of the Q&A and they seemed fairly impressed with Tesla's strategy and agreed with the decision to have a more exponential rollout. There will always be extreme targets (high and low), but I think a LOT of investors base what they do on these analyst ratings. Obviously global concerns like the Euro will affect the price, and it could still go either direction, but lately there seems to be a bit of positive movement on that front.

A second catalyst could be mainstream media getting on board; after non-Founders get their cars, even if Tesla hasn't given MotorTrend et al. longer-term test drives, there will be a Sig holder who will make some cash by lending her car, and we will see some reviews. And from all accounts there is no reason to believe anything beyond "spartan interior" will be a big issue (and maybe not even that). Even if not all reviews are glowing, Teslawareness will be growing and new investors will be jumping on board.

It could be sooner, it could be later, but Tesla is clearly not vaporware like some still seem to think, they are not having cash flow issues, and it is very probable (barring a direct asteroid hit on the factory or on Elon Musk) that the price will at some point be above $40 at some point this year. And like you, I'm prepared to be wrong, but I'm also preparing to be right (so I don't miss out on a great opportunity). If it drops again in a few months, I'll be adding to my "play pile"!

[KBF]

Are you insane?

Steph is from Montreal, bmek; it doesn't always come out politely, but he means well.

[Steph]

Steph is from Montreal, bmek; it doesn't always come out politely, but he means well.

No we are simply just rude around here.

[smorgasbord]

I like writing some August 18, 2012 $27.00 puts that sell for $1.25.

There's not a lot of downside protection there, so I would only do it if my alternative was to buy the stock today.

[smorgasbord]

No, I think that the analysts (the ones that are not shorting the stock) will be raising their TSLA target price as the plan falls into place.

That's not going to happen anytime soon. The Q3 500 car plan is a "better do." The 2500/month for Nov and Dec plan is a "show me." So, Dec. is the earliest I would expect anyone to raise estimates because Tesla is really going to make 5000 cars in 2012. Unless Elon likes the quality so much that he ramps up even sooner than Nov.

While Tesla isn't having cash flow issues now, it is a worry - hence the talk in the conference call about "cushion." If there's a bigger hiccup in production, it could be trouble for them. My guess is a capital raise is a quarter away, and that they'll try to do it with a private placement, rather than just issuing additional stock. Maybe Toyota or Daimler or Panasonic is willing to throw more money at Tesla for a bigger piece of the pie.

[brian45011]

The only "hope" they have of winning on their shorts is Tesla failing to start repaying the loan in December and a downward spiral from there on. !

The DOE loan agreement was amended to require Tesla to set up a restricted cash account for the first three repayment installments. Those amounts are shown on the balance sheet. During the conference call, Elon intimated that he might make the first installment that is due in December early. He might as well since the cash has already been restricted and it would be good PR and could give the share price a pop.

[Steph]

The DOE loan agreement was amended to require Tesla to set up a restricted cash account for the first three repayment installments. Those amounts are shown on the balance sheet. During the conference call, Elon intimated that he might make the first installment that is due in December early. He might as well since the cash has already been restricted and it would be good PR and could give the share price a pop.

Who cares about loans or financials.

Did you see what these guys have done?