TSLA Investor Discussions

[BYT_P1,837]

If you loose them they fall down. You can fix that with a belt though.

Make sure the belt is "LONG" enough to support your Shorts! I'm here all week!

[dmckinstry]

Why is TSLA up today, when the Dow and NASDAQ are both down? Have some been trying to cover their shorts without driving the price up too much? Granted, it's only a slight up.

[neroden]

Maybe we should have a 'Oh no. The stock is down!' thread just for those posts. This thread could be for discussion about the stock in general.

Being someone who always sees things in a negative light, I suggest both an "Oh no. The stock is down!" thread and an "Oh no. The stock is up, I can't afford it!" thread. Optimists can have their own pair of "Yay, the stock is up" and "Yay, the stock is cheap" threads.

[neroden]

That's a real downside of using the IRA as an investment vehicle -- instead of paying the LT cap gains rate, you'll end up paying the regular income rate. In the U.S., the federal capital gains tax is much less than most people's marginal tax rate on regular income.

Yes, hence my use of a Roth IRA. (For those who are curious, Roths are better than normal IRAs if you expect your income tax rates to increase between the time you put money in and the time you take it out; regular IRAs are better than Roths in exactly the opposite situation.)

[neroden]

The people who consistently lose in the stock market are the ones who buy because they are enthusiastic when the price goes way up, and then sell because they get discouraged when the price goes way down.

As for what the price "should" be, do your numbers: Figure out the ROI based on selling 20,000 Model S cars a year against the total capitalization of the company and then see what price per share yields an acceptable percentage on the stock price.

That was what I did. Lots of guesswork there, of course (you're guessing the profit margin on each car, the company overhead, future dilution of the stock, among other things), but you can make informed guesses based on the information published by Tesla.

[daniel]

That was what I did. Lots of guesswork there, of course (you're guessing the profit margin on each car, the company overhead, future dilution of the stock, among other things), but you can make informed guesses based on the information published by Tesla.

What number did you come up with? I'm guessing Wunderlich did the same kind of number crunching when they came up with $49, but I don't remember if there was a time frame associated with that.

Even though I described the kind of analysis that needs to be done, I'd have no idea how to gather the input numbers.

And of course, after one has figured out an estimated "true value," it's nearly impossible to figure out what distortions the vagaries of the market will introduce. That's why my real investments are never in individual stocks.

[Trnsl8r]

No cauliflower rants today? I seem to remember he's in AAPL and it's dropping like a stone today. Do those go into a different forum?

[neroden]

What number did you come up with?

That's proprietary investing information!

I'm guessing Wunderlich did the same kind of number crunching when they came up with $49, but I don't remember if there was a time frame associated with that.

Even though I described the kind of analysis that needs to be done, I'd have no idea how to gather the input numbers.

It's genuinely tedious. This is what you pay people for unless, like me, you like poring over endless boring documents just for fun.

And of course, after one has figured out an estimated "true value," it's nearly impossible to figure out what distortions the vagaries of the market will introduce. That's why my real investments are never in individual stocks.

Masses of guesses are involved, indeed. Though I think the most common risk is to make a perfectly good estimate of a company's future if it maintains business as usual, and then have management do something utterly crazy a couple of years down the road and blow the business up.

[daniel]

No cauliflower rants today? I seem to remember he's in AAPL and it's dropping like a stone today. Do those go into a different forum?

I'm sure he would not rant about AAPL on this forum. Maybe he's also on the Apple chat board. I really don't think we should give him a hard time. He's a kid who wants to believe in Tesla but lacks the experience to understand that the stock market is not a rational enterprise. I made some bad decisions when I was his age and I bet all of you did, too. Give the kid a break.

[AnOutsider]

I'm sure he would not rant about AAPL on this forum. Maybe he's also on the Apple chat board. I really don't think we should give him a hard time. He's a kid who wants to believe in Tesla but lacks the experience to understand that the stock market is not a rational enterprise. I made some bad decisions when I was his age and I bet all of you did, too. Give the kid a break.

How many breaks? I lost count of how many times people have tried to explain the landscape to him -- he ignores it until something else happens and then blows up again... It gets a bit tiring.