TSLA Investor Discussions

[Uncle Ron]

EDIT,,

[vfx]

After talking with employees (at the LA drive) about Elon's vision for the BluegenIII and the Roadster 3.0 it made me even more convinced this company is a complete gamechanger.

[Uncle Ron]

EDIT,,

[Robert.Boston]

Dividends are (or should be) paid when the company has more cash than investment opportunities that meet or beat the market-wide risk-adjusted ROE. Utilities are great examples. Dividend-paying stock is not generally a growth play.

Given the huge capital requirements that Tesla will have as it ramps up production, stores and service centers, and I think it's very safe to say we won't be getting dividend checks from TSLA any time before 2030.

[dsm363]

I agree. I don't really expect or want dividends paid on the stock I have if that means it will hurt Tesla or slow their growth.

[bonnie1194]

Ditto. I bought the stock for growth, not dividends.

[daniel]

I suspect it will be quite a while before more than a token amount is paid out as dividends. Tesla needs to keep most growth capital in the company. They have very ambitious plans. I am happy with that. What do others think?

I have no expectation of dividends for a very long time. When and if Tesla becomes a major auto company, and the market can no longer absorb growth, then dividends. Until then, they'll use the profits for growth. Of course, once the loan is paid off, and the company is showing a profit, they might elect to return some of it as dividends, but that seems the wrong way to go.

As for the 25% profit per car, that number may not be written in stone. Economies of scale could increase profit margin, and lowering the price once they are financially stable could decrease profit margin and increase sales. Musk wants to fill the roads with EVs. He could choose to trim the profit margin to make the cars more attractive to buyers.

And anyway, I wonder if that 25% profit per car is margin over materials and labor, or if it includes the cost of R&D amortized over the production life of the model. I suspect the former. That R&D will make the next car cheaper to design, and the next car after that cheaper yet, but they'll probably reflect that in the price of the car rather than in exorbitant profit margins.

[Steph]

Hi, it's me again, the guy who thinks TSLA will change the world

But before that happen, they need to sell cars, many cars...

So I did some maths this morning, based on what Mr Passin said they could produce 100k vehicules/year without stretching the curent setup. That news by itself is interesting. I was assuming 20k cars/year and 25% GM when simply using price/sale valuation.

So it was 20k (cars) * $70k (average sale) = $1.4b / 105m share = $13.3 * 10 (my growth ratio) = $133 / share

With the new 100k cars target, I get: $665 using my 10 factor and $1130 if I use the curent factor of 17.

Who said they were over valued?

My valuation is now somewhere between $133 & $1130.

[dsm363]

Apple's stock isn't even over $1,000 per share. If Tesla's stock is over $100 in a few years, I'lll be really happy.

[Steph]

Apple's stock isn't even over $1,000 per share. If Tesla's stock is over $100 in a few years, I'lll be really happy.

The share price is not the best indicator when taking it alone. Market cap is a better indicator.

At $1000, cap for Tesla would be valued about the same as Facebook. I prefer betting on a company that actually produce hard things rather then betting on a company any smart kid could kill any moment.

My numbers are facts. Cold facts. If Tesla acheive the numbers quoted above, this is the math to come to price/sales ratio.

Math is math. Can't argue with it. Except for the ratio, market will decide the ratio but it's safe to assume it will be high if they acheive the 100k cars target.