Exactly, the highway system in Japan has put CHAdeMO charge points up at service areas all over the whole country, and I just don't think there is anyway the Model S would sell here without supporting it. The nice thing about the CHAdeMO charge points is that they are right on the highway service centers every 20 miles or so, so you don't have to go out of your way at all to stop and charge, eat, shop, rest, etc.
While nothing like the number of CHAdeMO charge points now deployed, Tesla has also installed a pretty impressive array of HPC's around the country:
Tesla Japan Charging Points - Google Maps
However, these are generally off the main road since the government has been unwilling to let Tesla have space at the highway serivce areas. So in order to use most of the HPC's, you need to exit the highway, drive another 10 miles to get to the charge point, and then return to the highway. Almost also the highways are toll roads, so the total fee goes up quite a bit since you need to exit the highway once and re-enter. Beyond that, you'd be waiting for 3 hours anyway to get a decent charge into your Roadster with the HPC anyway. Of course in future, if a 400 or 500 mile battery pack were to be available, you could drive far enough to not have to worry about charging. As it is, you can still drive over 200 miles, charge overnight, and then get back on the road. Not too horrible, but certainly not optimal.
What we have been told in the past is that Chademo takes controll of the charging process, and that is a problem. Tesla is not willing to relinquish the charging of their batteries to another party. Tesla has spent lots of time and $$ to develop the electronics/software to properly charge their batteries. In order to use Chademo they would have to engineer an interface to remove that controll from Chademo. If it is doable for the Model S, it should be equally doable for the Roadster. It just takes $$ for development for the interface. If there is enough call, owners could develop a solution. Once the existing roadsters are no longer under warrenty is should not be an issue.
As for where the industry is heading in general, it's way too early to say before the Combo plug is out. At this point, CHAdeMO doesn't have an insurmountable lead yet (in both vehicles and stations).
Although I do agree CHAdeMO pretty much is the only DC standard that will take hold in Japan. However, given the size of Japan, Tesla might not need to depend on CHAdeMO. A few strategically placed HPCs or Superchargers can probably cover a lot of area. It really depends on how much demand there is for the Model S/X in Japan and the demand for quick charging.
It seems to me Tesla has the capability to build a CHAdeMO adapter and will build it if the demand really calls for it, but would really rather not. The most interesting point is if they can build a CHAdeMO adapter "easily" perhaps a Combo to CHAdeMO adapter can also be built easily. That's probably a bigger deal in terms of bridging the two standards.
Because there are tons of crazy people in this world...
1) Model S supercharging is based on a standard very close to CHAdeMO and thus creating an adapter won't pose much of a problem
2) Not so for the Roadster however, and he doubts seriously that they would ever attempt it.
So here we have the problem for Tesla in Japan if CHAdeMO is not supported -- people will just buy Toyotas, Nissans, Mitsubishis, and Hondas because charging them on the road is actually doable. I charged my Tesla at some of HPCs Tesla has installed, and honestly it's an adventure in itself getting off the main road and searching for them, charging, and then getting back to the main road. Most them are placed at expensive hotels, restorts, restaurants etc., where you at a minimum have to sit down for a pretty expensive meal to use the charger. The others are at gas stations where you really don't have anything to do while you wait. Way, way better than not even having them as all, but compared with CHAdeMO right on the highway, it's a losing proposition. So anyway, my prediction is that either support CHAdeMO here, or don't sell very many cars. It's their choice on that.
The Tesla small plug is so superior. Would be nice if the made is available for other the make for free.
The world loves to be deceived.
I still think they are going to run into regulatory issues with an adapter, not to mention the problems with 50kW adapters trailing on the ground.
Never bought the 'CHAdeMO takes over the car' thing. You can control that.
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