Tesla Model X versus BMW X6

WhiteKnight · Feb 16, 2012

Posting some pictures now. Going to come back a little later and post some prices and thoughts.

To me the BMW X6 looks more angular and more masculine. The Tesla Model X looks more fluidic and less aggressive than the X6.

Part of this is necessity for coefficient of drag and part of this is keeping the roof high enough to fit a third row of adults.

From prototype to beta the Model S seemed to get slightly more angular and less fluidic. I wonder if the Model X will do the same.

The posters on this forum are predominantly male but a lot of guys seem to like the looks of the Model X.

Do you think that Tesla should migrate the Model X to a more aggressive look?

I know that Tesla thinks they can get a lot of yuppie soccer moms to purchase the Model X but I don't think they should neglect the male buyer who wants the utility and functionality as well.

AnOutsider · Feb 16, 2012

Based on pics alone, I'd say the X6 is more masculine and has more "presence", while the X is more elegant and sleek. As I said before the reveal, from the outline I suspected the X6 and Model X would be somewhat similar, and they sort of are.

If they're going after soccer moms and the minivan crowd, no need to get more aggressive on looks IMO -- though, I wouldn't mind. I still remember that Model S designer mockup that was very aggressive. I liked it mucho.

*edit* here it is -- I suppose this would make a decent Roadster 3.0 or bluestar performance.

gg_got_a_tesla · Feb 16, 2012

Great side-by-side comparison, WhiteKnight! Showed it to my wife - a future soccer/tennis mom - who liked the X overall (the rear in particular) but, preferred the aggressive front of the BMW! The kidney grill of Bimmers has always been an outstanding design element.

Also, the more I look at it, the side mirrors (despite their issues with drag) somehow seem to round out the look of a car; the X looks almost funny with those piddly cameras sticking out just that bit - of course, they are probably not going to make production.

bint2k · Feb 16, 2012

we all know tesla is going against BMW head to head... most likely why the model x is kinda similar in design

WhiteKnight · Feb 16, 2012

So price-wise the Model X and the BMW X6 look comparable.

BMW X6 xDrive35i base MSRP = $59,600 and 0-60 in 6.3s
60 kWh Model X base MSRP = $59,900 and RWD 0-60 in 6.9s / AWD 0-60 in 5.9s

BMW X6 xDrive50i base MSRP = $70,200 :: 0-60 in 5.2s
85 kWh Model X base MSRP = $69,900 :: RWD 0-60 in 6.6s / AWD 0-60 in 5.6s

I am making the assumption that adding 15% (about 500 pounds) to the Model X will slow it down by about 1.0s in the 0-60 - that's just a guess.
I am also assuming if the addition of the second motor allows the Model X Performance to match the Model S Performance that the Model X AWD 60 kWh and AWD 85 kWh will match the Model S 60 kWh and 85 kWh 0-60 times - again just a (slightly) educated guess.

One big question is how much will the AWD option cost. If AWD's included with the base price then Model X dominates the X6. If AWD's a $10,000 option then you've got the 60 kWh Model X competing against the X6 xDrive50i which is a lot stiffer competition.

One thing I realize in doing this comparison however is that while the Model X and the X6 look very similar (perhaps they are the closest match to one another) the Model X is really a much different vehicle because of the Falcon Doors and the 3rd row of seats. I think a better comparison would be looking at the Model X versus luxury 3 row SUVs.

And besides the BMW X6 is only selling approximately 6,000 units per year so they are really more of a niche vehicle.

AnOutsider · Feb 16, 2012

WhiteKnight said:
One big question is how much will the AWD option cost. If AWD's included with the base price then Model X dominates the X6.

I'm going to guess that's pretty much a given that it WON'T include AWD on the base. Why offer RWD if your base car has the superior AWD? It's not like the 21" wheels on the S where you'd get some benefit (handling, mileage and perhaps aesthetic for some) by downgrading.

WhiteKnight said:
And besides the BMW X6 is only selling approximately 6,000 units per year so they are really more of a niche vehicle.

Well, Tesla has 500ish pre-orders, but even if the rate of reservations keep up (doubtful), that's still no guarantee they'll sell 6,000 per year after the initial preorders (I know they're shooting for 10-15k, but so was Fisker and we see how that worked out).

de704 · Feb 16, 2012

Did you just compare Tesla to Fisker?

Fisker might have a chance if there was no Tesla. The fact is nobody's paying attention to Fisker (because of a simpler/better technology in Tesla), customers, investors, or otherwise... not on a large enough scale. The Volt is a better comparison to the Karma & a better car than the Karma, and that not saying much.

They'er toughing the extended range of gas but the combined driving distance gas & electric is 230 miles which I'm sure you know is less than the Tesla Roadster.

The Karma, priced like a Tesla Roadster but slower than a 60kw Model S (even when in sport mode).

fisker should change the default sound in their speakers to wa waaa waaaa

AnOutsider · Feb 16, 2012

My point was that estimations or goals don't always work out. Tesla was also originally shooting to sell more Roadsters than they finally did too (though, pre-elon I believe). If the market isn't there, they could end up selling the same number of Model X's as BMW sells of their X6s

de704 · Feb 16, 2012

I was just mess'n with yah, I think america has a 30 year pent up frustration. We all grew up being promised cars of the future. You may be right about the Model X just because It's so expensive. But I believe when america sees the gen 3 car& if Tesla sets the reservation price of the Gen 3 car at $1000. they'ed get 20,000 pre-orders in the first 24 hours.

I honestly don't think that's exaggerated especially if there's the same 2 year wait time to save.

But then again Tesla hasn't even advertised yet. What if Tesla advertised the gen 3 car as... "The car of the future you've been promised is finally here!"

AnOutsider · Feb 16, 2012

*edit* whoops basically said what you said re: advertising

de704 · Feb 16, 2012

If timing stays the same well see a Gen3 prototype summer of 2013. 3 or 4 months before the launch of Model X

WhiteKnight · Feb 17, 2012

de704 said:
But then again Tesla hasn't even advertised yet. What if Tesla advertised the gen 3 car as... "The car of the future you've been promised is finally here!"

Model S's and X's on the road are going to be the best advertising Tesla can ever have. When you are stuck in traffic and they fly by in the HOV lane or you get your doors blown off from the stoplight.

One of the things analysts don't realize is there are a lot of people that will love this car that haven't loved cars before.

There will be a lot of people that would never buy a BMW because of the expensive maintenance and premium gasoline that will buy a Tesla.

ElSupreme · Feb 17, 2012

WhiteKnight said:
Model S's and X's on the road are going to be the best advertising Tesla can ever have. When you are stuck in traffic and they fly by in the HOV lane or you get your doors blown off from the stoplight.

One of the things analysts don't realize is there are a lot of people that will love this car that haven't loved cars before.

There will be a lot of people that would never buy a BMW because of the expensive maintenance and premium gasoline that will buy a Tesla.

Exactly and as EVs become more prevalent it will become apparent that even though sticker price wise these are in BMW 5-7 series range. 8 year cost to own will be more Nissan Maxima range or less.

ckessel · Feb 17, 2012

ElSupreme said:
Exactly and as EVs become more prevalent it will become apparent that even though sticker price wise these are in BMW 5-7 series range. 8 year cost to own will be more Nissan Maxima range or less.

I'm not a fan of leasing, but once EVs have been around enough to get a firm depreciation value, EVs should lease for clearly competitive values that don't require the buyer to extrapolate various savings (e.g. gas, maintenance).

WhiteKnight · Feb 17, 2012

ElSupreme said:
Exactly and as EVs become more prevalent it will become apparent that even though sticker price wise these are in BMW 5-7 series range. 8 year cost to own will be more Nissan Maxima range or less.

I really like the way you phrased it in one of your earlier posts where you said it was like PRE-PAYING for gas or mileage.

If I was selling gas cards that allowed you buy all the gasoline you wanted to buy for the next 8 years at a 90% discount ($3.50 gas - you pay 35 cents) how much would you be willing to pay me?

Those people that are not math challenged would say:

A) How many miles do I expect to drive?
B) How many miles do I get per gallon?
C) What do I expect the price per gallon to be?

For the average American the answers are:
A) 13,476 {source :: Average Annual Miles per Driver by Age Group}
B) 17.1 MPG {source :: Passenger vehicles in the United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia}
C) $3.50 {source :: http://gasbuddy.com/}

So that gas card ought to be worth 8 x 13,476 / 17.1 x 3.5 x .9 = $19,859

Average new car buyer owns their car for 4 years, 8 months {source :: http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2010_fotw622.html}
So our mythical gas card with a 56 month duration ought to be worth $11,584.

So for the average American an EV could cost up to $11,600 more than an ICE and they would still break even in Total Cost of Ownership.

Note that the MPG number includes SUVs and Trucks. Further note that I assuming that apples to apples, electricity per mile is about one-tenth the cost of gasoline per mile. If electricity was 20% of the cost of gasoline then the average American saves $10,298.

I think that the average American pays way too much attention to gas prices and hates paying $3.50 per gallon and thinks about electricity as being virtually free so they probably estimate their savings as being higher than it really is.

EDIT: Apparently the average American pays 11.88 cents per kilowatt hour {source :: http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/excel/epmxlfile5_6_a.xls} and Tesla says we should plan on 300 Wh/mile {source :: Model S Facts | Tesla Motors bottom right hand corner}. So the average cost per mile is $0.0357. If a $3.50 gallon of gas can transport you 17.1 miles then the average cost per mile is $0.205 per mile. So the cost per mile of electric is 17.4% of the cost per mile of gasoline.

Therefore the average American buying a new car should be willing to pay up to $10,630 for an EV over an ICE.

richkae · Feb 17, 2012

Thinking that gas is going to average $3.50 per gallon over the next 56 months is not going to give accurate results.

PV4EV · Feb 17, 2012

richkae said:
Thinking that gas is going to average $3.50 per gallon over the next 56 months is not going to give accurate results.

... petrol in Europe is approx 300% more than USA right now, and wont be getting any cheaper anytime soon. So the points made earlier should have even more impact over here.

The graph below is from the UK govts own DECC / Dept. of Energy and Climate Change and shows 22 years of growing petrol prices :-

DECC - Department of Energy Climate Change

WhiteKnight · Feb 17, 2012

richkae said:
Thinking that gas is going to average $3.50 per gallon over the next 56 months is not going to give accurate results.

The math is entirely accurate, everyone's expectations for future gas prices is going to vary. I tend to think that gas prices are going to remain where they are at or decline. I think the majority of people on this thread disagree with me.

So assuming gas prices remain the same makes the estimates conservative and if prices rise then that's a bonus.

The main point is that when we compare a Model X to a BMW X6 we need to take the $10,000+ in savings into account, which makes the Model X look like a clear winner.

T@oo · Feb 17, 2012

PV4EV said:
... petrol in Europe is approx 300% more than USA right now, and wont be getting any cheaper anytime soon. So the points made earlier should have even more impact over here.

The graph below is from the UK govts own DECC / Dept. of Energy and Climate Change and shows 22 years of growing petrol prices :-

DECC - Department of Energy Climate Change

But my kw/h cost is also much higher: 0,23€ (~0,30 $). Off hour price is not considerably less. A Modell S would save me only about half my diesel costs but the sticker price is about 20k € more than my (fully loaded) 320xd. For me, the ROI is negative....

mikevbf · Feb 18, 2012

+1 to de704 on the "30 years of pent up frustration" at least in North America. I would have been happy just getting some of Europe's diesel goodness in the form of an AWD that was not all about power instead of mpg or a people hauler.

Comparison like the one in this thread are interesting. They are asking where the population of buyers for the model x are going to come from. The biggest gate keepers to ownership are money and range with money being by far the biggest. So then the obvious first place to look is at similarly priced vehicles i.e. luxury high performance SUVs in the case of the model x. However, the model x is a really different not just because it is electric but because it has always, like the model s, intended to be electric. The result is a much more elegant solution (not as in sophisticated) to how to get from point a to point b with all the people and stuff we want while consuming less, being safe, and having fun while at it. Electric, hybrid, and all their variations in between are almost all converted ICE vehicles and as result end up being less capable on at least one but more often several of the vectors mentioned above.

Tesla has had the guts to make a practical concept car and actually bring it to the market. The problem is the parts i.e. batteries of this car are still expensive. Whether they make a high range electric vehicle with economy styling and performance or a luxury sports car or SUV the cost is always going to be high. They have to go after the car buying population that can afford the technology. As batteries cost less, it will become easier to go after the economy market. The fact that the next car after the model x is an ecconomy car and not the next generation of roadster suggests that Tesla's crystal ball sees battery prices going down sooner rather than later.

There is something I like about the aggressive boxy looks of the BMW and many of the other luxury high performing vehicles out there. But what I also see in the shapes of these vehicles is waste. The aerodynamics of these vehicles depend on peoples willingness to continue to pay for vehicles that waste our resources. With waste comes pollution. What I love about Tesla's approach is even the drivers who do not care about resource waste and pollution, will still care about utility, style, and performance of which Tesla's vehicles delivers on all 3.

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