Tesla Model X versus BMW X6

[de704]

If timing stays the same well see a Gen3 prototype summer of 2013. 3 or 4 months before the launch of Model X

[WhiteKnight]

But then again Tesla hasn't even advertised yet. What if Tesla advertised the gen 3 car as... "The car of the future you've been promised is finally here!"

Model S's and X's on the road are going to be the best advertising Tesla can ever have. When you are stuck in traffic and they fly by in the HOV lane or you get your doors blown off from the stoplight.

One of the things analysts don't realize is there are a lot of people that will love this car that haven't loved cars before.

There will be a lot of people that would never buy a BMW because of the expensive maintenance and premium gasoline that will buy a Tesla.

[ElSupreme]

Model S's and X's on the road are going to be the best advertising Tesla can ever have. When you are stuck in traffic and they fly by in the HOV lane or you get your doors blown off from the stoplight.

One of the things analysts don't realize is there are a lot of people that will love this car that haven't loved cars before.

There will be a lot of people that would never buy a BMW because of the expensive maintenance and premium gasoline that will buy a Tesla.

Exactly and as EVs become more prevalent it will become apparent that even though sticker price wise these are in BMW 5-7 series range. 8 year cost to own will be more Nissan Maxima range or less.

[ckessel]

Exactly and as EVs become more prevalent it will become apparent that even though sticker price wise these are in BMW 5-7 series range. 8 year cost to own will be more Nissan Maxima range or less.

I'm not a fan of leasing, but once EVs have been around enough to get a firm depreciation value, EVs should lease for clearly competitive values that don't require the buyer to extrapolate various savings (e.g. gas, maintenance).

[WhiteKnight]

Exactly and as EVs become more prevalent it will become apparent that even though sticker price wise these are in BMW 5-7 series range. 8 year cost to own will be more Nissan Maxima range or less.

I really like the way you phrased it in one of your earlier posts where you said it was like PRE-PAYING for gas or mileage.

If I was selling gas cards that allowed you buy all the gasoline you wanted to buy for the next 8 years at a 90% discount ($3.50 gas - you pay 35 cents) how much would you be willing to pay me?

Those people that are not math challenged would say:

A) How many miles do I expect to drive?
B) How many miles do I get per gallon?
C) What do I expect the price per gallon to be?

For the average American the answers are:
A) 13,476 {source :: Average Annual Miles per Driver by Age Group}
B) 17.1 MPG {source :: Passenger vehicles in the United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia}
C) $3.50 {source :: http://gasbuddy.com/}

So that gas card ought to be worth 8 x 13,476 / 17.1 x 3.5 x .9 = $19,859

Average new car buyer owns their car for 4 years, 8 months {source :: http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2010_fotw622.html}
So our mythical gas card with a 56 month duration ought to be worth $11,584.

So for the average American an EV could cost up to $11,600 more than an ICE and they would still break even in Total Cost of Ownership.

Note that the MPG number includes SUVs and Trucks. Further note that I assuming that apples to apples, electricity per mile is about one-tenth the cost of gasoline per mile. If electricity was 20% of the cost of gasoline then the average American saves $10,298.

I think that the average American pays way too much attention to gas prices and hates paying $3.50 per gallon and thinks about electricity as being virtually free so they probably estimate their savings as being higher than it really is.


EDIT: Apparently the average American pays 11.88 cents per kilowatt hour {source :: http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/excel/epmxlfile5_6_a.xls} and Tesla says we should plan on 300 Wh/mile {source :: Model S Facts | Tesla Motors bottom right hand corner}. So the average cost per mile is $0.0357. If a $3.50 gallon of gas can transport you 17.1 miles then the average cost per mile is $0.205 per mile. So the cost per mile of electric is 17.4% of the cost per mile of gasoline.

Therefore the average American buying a new car should be willing to pay up to $10,630 for an EV over an ICE.

[richkae]

Thinking that gas is going to average $3.50 per gallon over the next 56 months is not going to give accurate results.

[PV4EV]

Thinking that gas is going to average $3.50 per gallon over the next 56 months is not going to give accurate results.

... petrol in Europe is approx 300% more than USA right now, and wont be getting any cheaper anytime soon. So the points made earlier should have even more impact over here.

The graph below is from the UK govts own DECC / Dept. of Energy and Climate Change and shows 22 years of growing petrol prices :-

DECC - Department of Energy Climate Change

[WhiteKnight]

Thinking that gas is going to average $3.50 per gallon over the next 56 months is not going to give accurate results.

The math is entirely accurate, everyone's expectations for future gas prices is going to vary. I tend to think that gas prices are going to remain where they are at or decline. I think the majority of people on this thread disagree with me.

So assuming gas prices remain the same makes the estimates conservative and if prices rise then that's a bonus.

The main point is that when we compare a Model X to a BMW X6 we need to take the $10,000+ in savings into account, which makes the Model X look like a clear winner.

[T@oo]

... petrol in Europe is approx 300% more than USA right now, and wont be getting any cheaper anytime soon. So the points made earlier should have even more impact over here.

The graph below is from the UK govts own DECC / Dept. of Energy and Climate Change and shows 22 years of growing petrol prices :-

DECC - Department of Energy Climate Change

But my kw/h cost is also much higher: 0,23€ (~0,30 $). Off hour price is not considerably less. A Modell S would save me only about half my diesel costs but the sticker price is about 20k € more than my (fully loaded) 320xd. For me, the ROI is negative....

[mikevbf]

+1 to de704 on the "30 years of pent up frustration" at least in North America. I would have been happy just getting some of Europe's diesel goodness in the form of an AWD that was not all about power instead of mpg or a people hauler.

Comparison like the one in this thread are interesting. They are asking where the population of buyers for the model x are going to come from. The biggest gate keepers to ownership are money and range with money being by far the biggest. So then the obvious first place to look is at similarly priced vehicles i.e. luxury high performance SUVs in the case of the model x. However, the model x is a really different not just because it is electric but because it has always, like the model s, intended to be electric. The result is a much more elegant solution (not as in sophisticated) to how to get from point a to point b with all the people and stuff we want while consuming less, being safe, and having fun while at it. Electric, hybrid, and all their variations in between are almost all converted ICE vehicles and as result end up being less capable on at least one but more often several of the vectors mentioned above.

Tesla has had the guts to make a practical concept car and actually bring it to the market. The problem is the parts i.e. batteries of this car are still expensive. Whether they make a high range electric vehicle with economy styling and performance or a luxury sports car or SUV the cost is always going to be high. They have to go after the car buying population that can afford the technology. As batteries cost less, it will become easier to go after the economy market. The fact that the next car after the model x is an ecconomy car and not the next generation of roadster suggests that Tesla's crystal ball sees battery prices going down sooner rather than later.

There is something I like about the aggressive boxy looks of the BMW and many of the other luxury high performing vehicles out there. But what I also see in the shapes of these vehicles is waste. The aerodynamics of these vehicles depend on peoples willingness to continue to pay for vehicles that waste our resources. With waste comes pollution. What I love about Tesla's approach is even the drivers who do not care about resource waste and pollution, will still care about utility, style, and performance of which Tesla's vehicles delivers on all 3.