Page 124 of 124 FirstFirst ... 2474114120121122123124
Results 1,231 to 1,235 of 1235

Thread: Model X Tally

  1. #1231
    Member Cattledog's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    San Antonio, TX
    Posts
    845
    Quote Originally Posted by michiganmodels View Post
    That could be the case. I'm interested what the 2015 guidance will be now that we know 15K to 20K is the an estimate for X. If Tesla plans on 15K to 20K "ish" Model X and the production capability exiting 2014 is 1,000+ cars a week, is 60K to 70K the 2015 sales forecast?

    If so, I agree with you Chicken, 2016 could have long waits for S and X.
    65K seems to be the over/under.

  2. #1232
    Senior Member chickensevil's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Virginia, United States
    Posts
    1,779
    Quote Originally Posted by michiganmodels View Post
    That could be the case. I'm interested what the 2015 guidance will be now that we know 15K to 20K is the an estimate for X. If Tesla plans on 15K to 20K "ish" Model X and the production capability exiting 2014 is 1,000+ cars a week, is 60K to 70K the 2015 sales forecast?

    If so, I agree with you Chicken, 2016 could have long waits for S and X.
    Yeah, Elon said in Q2 ER that they would hit at least 60k in 2015. They would be exiting the 2015 year with at least a 2000 a week run rate, so the 60k is a low estimate since they will be starting the year off at 1000 a week (50k a year)

    My current understanding is that the Main Body Assembly is currently where the new bottleneck is at in the factory, which will be upgraded in Q1, Next will be the Paint Shop (but I don't know what their current run rate cap through there is...) both of these seemed to be critical to getting them up to 2000 a week by the end of the year (based on Elon's comments) which is why he wouldn't give a higher number than 60k, since they still had around 5 months before we started 2015. It is very likely that number will change for the positive. I am personally just hoping for 70k because that will be a simple doubling of the production over this year.

    So my initial feeling is that MS won't be AS affected by this, since I feel like they will be giving around 50k production to the MS. That should be a nice steady ramp up, and should pull the wait times down (for now), the MX on the other hand, it is going to be a long wait... at some point they might shift the MS wait times just a bit to allow them to squeeze out the MX a bit faster and pull the backlog down. Once they meet a parity on wait times, they will likely do whatever they can to make the wait the same across the two models. But I don't see that happening until maybe 2016...

  3. #1233
    Waiting for the Model X&☰ gjunky's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Scottsdale, AZ
    Posts
    250
    If they scale in a linear fashion from 1000 per week to a "100,000 yearly run rate" by the end of 2015, they would produce 76k cars in 2015 for a 52 week run or roughly 72k for a 50 week run.
    (the production would increase by 18 cars week over week)

    As mentioned above, this of course would all depend if there is some other bottleneck in the factory which might affect the ramp up.

    Reserved Model X - Seq: 8009, Reservation date: 20-Feb-2014
    Power provided by a SolarCity Array of 11.3kW
    Reserving a Model ☰ - as soon as tesla takes reservations

  4. #1234
    Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    Kongsberg, Norway
    Posts
    722
    Reserved a Model X production last night (about 16 hours ago). Got EU P2754. I've updated the wiki post.
    Model X EU P2754, might consider switching to AWD Model S.

  5. #1235
    Junior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Location
    Illinois
    Posts
    85
    Reservation sequence number
    13,407

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 3 users browsing this thread. (1 members and 2 guests)

  1. Vexar

Similar Threads

  1. Model S Reservation Tally
    By michiganmodels in forum Model S: Ordering, Production, Delivery
    Replies: 2720
    Last Post: 2014-09-14, 09:50 AM
  2. Model X Tally
    By michiganmodels in forum Model X
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 2012-02-10, 12:12 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •