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Teslamotors tweets: CNBC reports 400 mile battery in the next 3-4 years

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Norbert

TSLA will win
Oct 12, 2009
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@Teslamotors tweeted (and thereby endorsed ;) :

Read on @CNBC why Tesla is poised to make "range anxiety" a thing of the past. Phil LeBeau's Behind The Wheel - CNBC


After visiting Tesla headquarters and meeting with the management there, J.P. Morgan is telling clients it can see Tesla developing a 400 mile range powertrain in the next 3-4 years.

J.P. Morgan’s Patel believes, “Tesla’s battery pack costs would probably fall prospectively about 25 percent in each of the next five years [i.e., to around $225/kWh in five years from today].” Patel adds the drop in costs could happen even sooner.
 
“We suspect this timeframe may even prove conservative, as we have recently sensed that Tesla has already identified many of the technical changes that it plans to make to its current generation battery technology (i.e., that to be used in the S) to be able to create a 400-mile range capable vehicle.”

interesting!
 
He writes, “We suspect this timeframe may even prove conservative, as we have recently sensed that Tesla has already identified many of the technical changes that it plans to make to its current generation battery technology (i.e., that to be used in the S) to be able to create a 400-mile range capable vehicle.”

What type of battery technology could make this possible within 3-4 years? None the less it is an interesting article.
 
The "25% in each of the next 5 years" puzzles me since Elon has said in various interviews something like 8% gradual improvement per year.

They may be exaggerating, but if we suppose that what Tesla said re: them being able to make a pack bigger than 300 right now as truth, then it's possible they're already able to do 380 or even 400 right now, but a gradual reduction in price (and more efficient packaging) over the next couple of years could make it palatable from a financial perspective.
 
The cells in the roadster current pack weight 300kg only plus 150kg for the pack, including the steel shell for each cell. if the new nickel based panasonic cells are more safe, than weight can be reduced or to add more cells without sacrificing safety.
400miles can be done for the roadster with the current panasonic cells right now.
 
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That line was a bit confusing. I think they meant that prices would reduce by 25% every 5 years. So 25% by 2017 and 43.75% by 2022. So not each year of the next 5 years, but each group of 5 years.

25% per group of 5 years would not only be a very uncommon way of putting it, but also correspond to only 5% per year (or 6%, depending on whether it is meant inside or outside of 100%). But we know that Tesla was only recently referring to 7% to 9% per year for the $/kWh number.

The bracketed addition "in each of the next five years [i.e., to around $225/kWh in five years from today]", specifically the "to", does imply they meant 25% each year. Of course, that doesn't mean that they understood correctly what Tesla said, as 25% per year does sound too high.

Whereas going from a 300 to a 400 mile range in 3-4 years sounds very reasonable, and corresponds to a yearly improvement of 7.5% to 10%.

Regarding the price, possible might be, for example, 25% next year (only, then less), and to around $225/kWh in 5 years. In fact, A123 is expecting an exceptionally strong price drop in the next year. There might be some "low hanging fruit" as manufacturing scales up in the coming year(s).