Wired: January 20, 2012 "Why the Clean Tech Boom Went Bust"
If, like me, you're clueless about the whole Solyndra thing, this is a good overview.
If, like me, you're clueless about the whole Solyndra thing, this is a good overview.
Solyndra’s failure wasn’t just the result of manufacturing problems. It was also a product of a broad shift that was happening in the US energy sector. The financial models that had justified the massive investments in clean-energy sources were built on assumptions that the price of fossil fuels, in particular natural gas, would continue to rise. But those models began to fall apart as a natural gas boom transformed the energy landscape.
Electric cars seem like a relatively safe bet, spurred by both rising oil prices and federal rules requiring greater fuel efficiency. Additionally, as it has with solar, China has aggressively pushed into the competitive battery industry. As a result, prices for the lithium-ion battery modules in electric cars—which can cost more than some gas-powered cars—are coming down. Tesla started out making 600 sports cars a year, priced at $109,000 each; in 2012 it will begin selling the Model S, a full-size sedan that goes from zero to 60 in six seconds and costs just under $50,000 (once you kick in a $7,500 federal tax credit). Within five years, the company says, it will be producing 100,000 cars annually and charging just $30,000 apiece. The company’s stock took a hit in early December, after Morgan Stanley cut its price target—citing concerns about the broader EV market—but it was still up for the year, even after the drop.
Batteries
Promise: Zero-emission vehicles (assuming that the power for recharging the batteries comes from zero-emission sources).
Reality: The federal government injected $2.4 billion into the battery industry in 2009, under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, with the stated goal of getting more electric cars on the road. But expensive materials means that advanced lithium-ion batteries still cost about $650 per kilowatt-hour of usable energy. At that level, the 24-kWh battery pack for a Nissan Leaf costs more than some cars.
Outlook: Despite a White House call to get battery prices down to $100 per kWh by 2020, the rosiest predictions foresee nothing cheaper than $300 per kWh over the next decade.
