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Steven Chu in Automotive News (still 1 Million EVs, but maybe 2016 or so)

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Norbert

TSLA will win
Oct 12, 2009
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Sorry, direct links don't seem to work. Find the two links, to two articles with the titles below, here:
Steven Chu at autonews.com

Innovate or be overtaken, U.S. energy chief tells automakers

“But we can’t rest. It’s a very competitive world out there. Our choice is very clear. We have to continue to innovate or we’ll be overtaken.”

“To compete in the global economy, it’s not only necessary for the United States to invent these technologies, we need to make them in the United States and sell our products worldwide,” Chu said.

Electric cars will benefit from 'plummeting' battery prices, U.S. energy chief says

Chu, speaking to reporters today on the sidelines of the Detroit auto show, said he thinks the industry has a "good shot" of hitting the Obama administration's ambitious target of putting 1 million electric vehicles on the road by 2015.

"Whether it is 2015 or 2016 or whenever, I don't know. I think it is possible," Chu said. "It depends on a lot of things. The price of batteries is plummeting."

Three or four years ago, the cost of manufacturing a battery was $1,000-$1,200 a kilowatt hour, Chu said. It's now about $600 a kilowatt hour, he added. "It's going to come down and everyone knows this," Chu said, after touring the General Motors' display at the show.

He added: "The plug-in hybrids will become mainstream, followed by the all-electric vehicles."
 
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Yep. Here two quotes from a Sept 2011 article, titled "U.S. to conduct more research on electric vehicles" (also via the above search link)

The U.S. Energy Department wants to devote more of its $3 billion research budget to get more electric vehicles on the road, a strategy it sees as making the biggest difference in reducing oil imports and cutting pollution.

In fiscal 2011, the Energy Department "underinvested" in transportation with only 26 percent of its spending geared to the research, the review said.

Only 9 percent of its research spending went to electric vehicles, and 4 percent to making vehicles more fuel efficient, with the remainder spent on alternative fuels.

The DOE will focus on technology that does not require new fuel-station infrastructure, and hone in on advanced biofuels for heavy-duty trucks rather than the "mature" ethanol industry, the review said.


These quotes apply to plans for the 2013 budget.
 
Three or four years ago, the cost of manufacturing a battery was $1,000-$1,200 a kilowatt hour, Chu said. It's now about $600 a kilowatt hour, he added.

But the estimated replacement cost for the Roadster battery pack was $20K for a 53kWh pack. That's $377 per kWh.
 
Three or four years ago, the cost of manufacturing a battery was $1,000-$1,200 a kilowatt hour, Chu said. It's now about $600 a kilowatt hour, he added.

But the estimated replacement cost for the Roadster battery pack was $20K for a 53kWh pack. That's $377 per kWh.

Estimated for which time frame? I think that figure relates to plugin-hybrid batteries, which are probably more expensive per kWh because their power density (kW output per cell) needs to be higher.
 
How about that - a guy in this administration smart enough to know what every 7 year old already knew - EVs will go mass market when battery prices
decline. As for "dropping like a rock," well, that's pure BS. Tesla uses the cheapest li ion batteries, batteries produced in the billions, such that no more cost reduction thru
manufacturing refinements are possible - they cost roughly $535 per kWhr. We need that cost (which has been dropping , according to Musk, at around 5 to 7 percent per year) to drop more than 80%, and also need a greater lifespan, which is the other cost parameter, which Chu avoided. Li Ions will not continue to drop in cost unless they are
improved in design, something neither Chu nor anyone else can predict with certainty. At this moment and for the foreseeable future, EVs are a rich man's vehicle. So, quite
naturally, our brainless Feds grossly subsidize their well-heeled owners with many thousands of dollars. What a country.
 
How about that - a guy in this administration smart enough to know what every 7 year old already knew - EVs will go mass market when battery prices
decline. As for "dropping like a rock," well, that's pure BS. Tesla uses the cheapest li ion batteries, batteries produced in the billions, such that no more cost reduction thru
manufacturing refinements are possible - they cost roughly $535 per kWhr. We need that cost (which has been dropping , according to Musk, at around 5 to 7 percent per year) to drop more than 80%, and also need a greater lifespan, which is the other cost parameter, which Chu avoided. Li Ions will not continue to drop in cost unless they are
improved in design, something neither Chu nor anyone else can predict with certainty. At this moment and for the foreseeable future, EVs are a rich man's vehicle. So, quite
naturally, our brainless Feds grossly subsidize their well-heeled owners with many thousands of dollars. What a country.

Prices are said to "plummet" only over a certain number of years. In some areas a stronger improvement is said to be ahead in the coming couple of years, but that's different for different areas.

  • I very much doubt the figure of $535. It it's probably more between $400/kWh and $450/kWh, according to some graphics, and the assumption made here in other threads that the first 40 kWh are less expensive then the upgraded capacities. However Chu was mostly talking about the plugin-hybrid sector, were prices are a bit higher due to the higher power density, yet often cycle life is quite high because of that.
  • Elon Musk actually said battery cost will be improving 7 to 9 percent (not 5 to 7) per year. See here: 12 tech leaders Tech News and Analysis
  • He also said that the Model S cost in $/kWh is half that of the Roadster. That happened within 5 years.
  • Li Ions will certainly be improved in design. That's what much of the research is about. Panasonic's upcoming batteries use even a different chemistry than the current ones.

The fact that the future can't be predicted doesn't mean that it won't happen. Battery cost has been reduced and will continue to be reduced, now with lots of R&D working on that, as well as upcoming economy of scale.
 
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If the terms of the award are similar to those of the ARPA-E funding, the IP rights stay with the inventors (except for a limited-use license to the federal government for government use). So this $120mm is better thought of as seed money, with the expectation that it will be more than matched by hosting institutions eager to develop "the next big thing" in batteries and make a fortune thereby.