Many questions about Model S.. vs.. premium gas car

[stealthnhawk]

Hi All,
I am new to forum and trying to figure out if Tesla Model S is car for me.
Currently, I am set for the 2013 Lexus GS 350 F-sport model which will run about $58 to $60k after tax.
Recently, I saw announcement of the Model S with the 40kW (160miles) for $50k after the $7500 credits which got me interested in the Tesla and technology since I can buy the Tesla for about $60k after tax.
I have a few questions that I hope some members could help answer:
1) I am read some thread about the battery life. I am located in San Jose, CA (close to Fremont, CA). I guess it doesn't get super cold like some northern states. So realistically, 160mi version will get how many miles at year 1, 5, and 8? since the warranty is good to 8 years.
2) After 8 or 10 years, say that I can buy a new battery, can I buy the 60k or 85kW? Will it fit in the 40kW space?
3) I've got a chance to talk to a rep at the Santana Row store and she mentioned that Model S needs very minimal maintenance. Only need to check the brakes, tires, and some software updates which sounds really good. Is there anything else that she didn't mention? It seems that dealer won't be able to make much money from servicing which sounds too good to be true. For gas cars, that's how dealers make money.
4) Last question. For luxury car with like 25mile/gal, the cost of gas per mile is about $4.00(for 91 gas)/25 ~ $0.16/mile. I would assume it will get only worse as the economy recover. How about EV? how much does it cost of charge per mile? I've seen people say from $0.02 to $0.06? If $0.06 is true, for 100k mile, I would save $10k if I drive Tesla Model S instead of gas car?

It seems to me buying a Tesla has soo many benefits. Am I missing something?

Sorry for so many questions, but kinda excited about the potential of Model S.

TIA

[smorgasbord]

First, Happy New Year and welcome to the forum! Looking through the forums (should keep you busy until your Model S arrives, if not longer) will answer most of these questions, but here's a start:

First, note that the tax credit does not mean you're not paying sales tax in CA. You still are, and on the $57.4K amount. That's also assuming you get the absolute low-end base model, which won't be as fast 0-60 as the Lexus, nor as luxuriously equipped (leather is standard on the Lexus, not on the Model S). On the good side, the Model S won't have the silly engine sound generator that the Lexus has.

1) The 160 mile version is at 55mph when using all of the battery, which is not recommended for frequent use. I'd guess the 160 mile battery is good for repeated drives up to about 100 miles, and to 130 miles every now and then. Assuming you put 12K-18K miles/year on your car, then you'll start to see some range reduction at 5 years, and at 8 years you'll probably be at about 75% of original capacity. All guesses based on Roadster reports and Tesla Roadster warranty statements - which may not apply to the different Model S batteries.

2) In 8 or 10 years you should be able to buy a replacement battery with more capacity, and it will fit in the same space. Tesla might have a 500 mile battery out by then. No-one really knows, and no-one can predict the costs. Recently, prices have been declining at a pretty nice clip.

3) Tesla doesn't have dealers. Tesla owns all the stores and all the service centers. Being in San Jose, CA, you'll have great access to what is now Menlo Park servicing, which may move, but will still be relatively close to you. And yes, maintenance will be much less in terms of frequency than an ICE car, although the cost of the Model S's yearly maintenance hasn't been announced. It's $600 for the Roadster. Thanks to regen, your brake pads and rotors will last a longer time, too.

4) If you get the E9 plan from PGE, your off-peak rates can be as low as $0.05/kWh, depending on how much electricity you use overall. There's talk that the rate plans will change, though. At 333 Wh/mile (70-75 mph), you're getting 3 miles per kWh, which is less than $0.02/mile. So yes, in terms of fuel costs, you save quite a bit. But that's not the whole story. While you may save $14,000 after 100,000 miles in gas, you may then need to buy a replacement battery, which could easily cost more than $14,000. However, as you guessed, it may be possible to get a high capacity battery for less money than it costs today. On the plus side, you'll have less overall maintenance costs, will not have things like timing belts to replace, nor undergo smog checks, nor engine rebuilds. On the unknown side, a true TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) comparison requires knowing the value of the car down the road. That's a big unknown. People are worried about battery life today, so a used EV may not fetch much unless you're willing to replace the battery to get the sale. OTOH, 8 years down the road people may be more comfortable assessing the life still left in auto batteries. But, things could go the other way just as easily.

Buying a Tesla has many benefits, from helping wean us from foreign oil, to reduced pollution (CA uses very little coal to generate electricity), to supporting designed and made in America, to starting with a "full tank" every day, to the sheer fun of driving a quiet car with instant low-end torque. However, it may not end up costing less than your Lexus, and it does require some behavioral changes (can't just take a long trip without planning), and some leaps of faith in both Tesla as a viable company and EVs as a viable technology N years down the road.

[NielsChr]

About #1, is really difficult to answer without having owned a Roadster (witch could reveal what to expect from the model S), I haven't seen any complains about capacity wear in the roadster forum, so I expect they are still happy) - the battery type being used is known to have full capacity the first year and then drop a few % (e.g. 5%), after this little drop the capacity should remain for many meny years - Tesla have at present good insight in expected battery lift due to the experience they got from the Roadster - first they did announced to offer a warranty for 7 years, but they have recently raised this to 8 years - I guess they fell comfortable to do this, since they know it will remain, even after 8 years.
The battery pack consist of many cells, which is grouped into larger groups – these groups are surly monitored individually and if a drop in capacity is register, it might not be necessary to replace the entire battery pack – just a few cells/group of cells need to be replaced.

About#2, Yes the 60Kw and 85kw battery will fit, and can be replaced into a 40 Kw model - I guess you might need a software update as well and maybe a few adjustments as well if capacity is changed. But no one really knows yet, currently the 60 Kw battery seem like the sweet spot - the 60 Kw pack have the same number of cells as the 85 Kw, and might result in longer life (due to less load on each cell).
Tesla do Plan to build other Models on the same platform (Model X) in the future – this indicate that the Battery form factor also is supported for many years and we will posible see future improvements offered in the same form factor – in 5-8 years you could see a 100-150 Kw pack battery pack depending on how battery technology evolves.

About #3, most say it will have less maintenance, and I agree - minimal wear on breaks as well due to regenerating braking, I would expect some maintenance on the sophisticated cooling system, witch is made of 2 water cooled pipelines - might be simple though and require minimal service, but it is a essential part of the car - if this not runs 100% correct you may ruin your battery warrenty (hope they built in some sort of surveillance of it and a alarm to sound/indicate)

About #4, The Model s will use approx. 0.3 Kw/mile - if you add 10-15% waste for the charging/aircon, it will run with a real world number of 0.35-0.40 Kw/mile - you should then be able of calculate your price for your mileage depending on what you pay for the electricity.

A last note, Model S is surely not a cheap car (neither is Lexus), don’t buy this car only to save money, buy it due to the technology this car is using/represent – any 2 cars out there have different price tags, you can not only compare 2 cars on price. Telsa is a totally different car than any other, and price will be different – e.g. Model S is not only a EV, it is also a car made of Aluminum – find another Aluminum car and you will find out that Model S is extremely cheap…

[jcstp]

Maybe you overlooked this page on the site of Tesla
Model S Facts | Tesla Motors

[dsm363]

steatlhnhawk : Welcome.

Would the Model S be your only car or would you still have an gas car you could take on long trips if you needed it? That may play a factor in your decision. Since you're in CA though, you're much more likely to be able to access chargers and maybe even the Tesla super chargers (although you'd need to get the more expensive 60 or 85 kWh pack cars).

While you can upgrade the battery pack as smorgasbord said, we also don't know if the performance will also increase since it's unknown if the 40 kWh cars are set up differently than the other Model S cars (the bigger battery packs have faster 0-60 times and may have additional hardware).

Overall, I think you'd like the Model S. You live so close to Tesla that service shouldn't be a problem as well. You also have to factor in how fun and unique the Model S will be on the road compared to the Lexus. Also, as an EV you can gain access to the single-occupant use of High Occupancy Vehicle (HOVs) lanes. Basically, get the biggest battery pack that you think will cover 99% of your trips and you'll be happy. You can always rent a car for that one or two trips a year if you need to.

[jcstp]

steatlhnhawk : Welcome.

Would the Model S be your only car or would you still have an gas car you could take on long trips if you needed it? That may play a factor in your decision. Since you're in CA though, you're much more likely to be able to access chargers and maybe even the Tesla super chargers (although you'd need to get the more expensive 60 or 85 kWh pack cars).

While you can upgrade the battery pack as smorgasbord said, we also don't know if the performance will also increase since it's unknown if the 40 kWh cars are set up differently than the other Model S cars (the bigger battery packs have faster 0-60 times and may have additional hardware).

Overall, I think you'd like the Model S. You live so close to Tesla that service shouldn't be a problem as well. You also have to factor in how fun and unique the Model S will be on the road compared to the Lexus. Also, as an EV you can gain access to the single-occupant use of High Occupancy Vehicle (HOVs) lanes. Basically, get the biggest battery pack that you think will cover 99% of your trips and you'll be happy. You can always rent a car for that one or two trips a year if you need to.

Model S Facts | Tesla Motors

Battery

Tesla uses automotive-grade, Lithium-ion battery technology. These batteries do not suffer from “memory effect”.
Tesla offers three batteries, denoted by the kilowatt hours (kWh) of energy they store: 40 kWh, 60 kWh, and 85 kWh. Travelling 55 mph, the kWh figures can be translated to the stated range capabilities of 160, 230, and 300 miles, respectively.
While technically possible to upgrade from a 40 kWh battery to a larger battery at a later time, Tesla recommends configuring your Model S with the battery that meets both present and future needs.
As energy storage capacity increases, so does the total power. This results in quicker acceleration.
As energy storage capacity increases, so does the battery’s long-term mileage capability. Each battery comes with an 8-year warranty but the mileage differs.
Battery lifetime is affected by two things: age and the energy it delivers over the years. The Tesla battery is optimized for nightly charging: such topping off enhances the longevity of your battery.
The Model S battery will not lose a significant amount of charge when parked for long periods of time. For example, Model S owners can park at the airport for extended vacations without plugging in.
Accessory use does not have a dramatic impact on driving range. Range fluctuates based on vehicle speed, driving style, and road conditions. Holding these factors constant, using higher consumption accessories like climate control will reduce range approximately five to ten percent.
Model S is designed to regenerate charge when decelerating or driving downhill.
Given rapidly changing battery technology, it is impossible to accurately forecast the cost of future battery replacements.

[dsm363]

Model S Facts | Tesla Motors

I've seen this. It still doesn't say that we guarantee that if you upgrade down the road from a 40 kWh to a 85 kWh pack, your acceleration will also increase. They imply it but it could also be interpreted as get the bigger battery pack now if you want quicker acceleration.

[jcstp]

I've seen this. It still doesn't say that we guarantee that if you upgrade down the road from a 40 kWh to a 85 kWh pack, your acceleration will also increase. They imply it but it could also be interpreted as get the bigger battery pack now if you want quicker acceleration.

Of what i Understand in this explanation it does!

While technically possible to upgrade from a 40 kWh battery to a larger battery at a later time, Tesla recommends configuring your Model S with the battery that meets both present and future needs.
As energy storage capacity increases, so does the total power. This results in quicker acceleration.

[Robert.Boston]

I've seen this. It still doesn't say that we guarantee that if you upgrade down the road from a 40 kWh to a 85 kWh pack, your acceleration will also increase. They imply it but it could also be interpreted as get the bigger battery pack now if you want quicker acceleration.

You may be right, but it would be very uncharacteristic of Tesla to cripple a car unnecessarily. The consensus on the boards is that the lower acceleration on the smaller packs is caused by the number of cells, and cell chemistry. Change those, and you'll change the car's performance.

[dsm363]

You may be right, but it would be very uncharacteristic of Tesla to cripple a car unnecessarily. The consensus on the boards is that the lower acceleration on the smaller packs is caused by the number of cells, and cell chemistry. Change those, and you'll change the car's performance.

I think that you're likely correct. Just wanted to point out to the person in the original post that the possibility of keeping your baseline performance even while increasing your range in the future is there. I'm sure we'll be able to ask Tesla and get a definitive answer. They do say in their facts page above

"While technically possible to upgrade from a 40 kWh battery to a larger battery at a later time, Tesla recommends configuring your Model S with the battery that meets both present and future needs."