Hydrogen Car Fantasy Crumbles

[tonybelding]

"Honda continues to put out commercials...

Yeah, and I keep seeing that BMW "liquid car" one running.

A lot on Comedy Central.

The BMW car is a joke.

Honda, on the other hand, seem to actually take hydrogen cars seriously. (I think GM does somewhat too, but mostly in the context of China.) The Honda FCX is the most attractive hydrogen car that I've seen yet, and now they are showing a production version of it.

They call it a production version, but I think it's going to be something semi-experimental like the EV1, where it's made in very limited numbers as required by CARB and nobody can actually buy them.

However. . . Unlike most other car companies, I think Honda's executives honestly see the hydrogen fuel-cell car as being the future replacement for gasoline cars. Recently they had some good things to say about BEVs, but when I read between the lines I believe they were referring tiny, slow, short-ranged "city cars". Toy cars. Punishment cars. Green penalty boxes. The "real cars" will be hydrogen powered, in their vision.

I admire a lot of things about Honda. If you look at all the great things people say about Toyota (reliability, efficiency, etc.), you'll find in most cases Honda deserves that reputation more than Toyota does. I just think Honda have charted the wrong course into the future.

[TEG]

FYI, in case you missed it, GM has been doing a pilot program to let some real customers (in selected area with hydrogen refueling depos) try out a fuel celled Equinox for a while.

I recall seeing articles suggesting that the Prius was a response to a perceived 'threat' that US auto companies were going to go forward with aggressive hybrid programs. Then the US companies shelved their hybrids and Toyota had the last laugh as the Prius was so successful. Toyota should have also dominated BEVs with the Rav4-EV (perhaps the best of the late 90s EVs), yet battery litigation made it impossible.

Wouldn't it be ironic if the US auto companies bailed on the fuel cell vehicles, then Japan showed up (with something like the FCX) and actually took over the market.

In some ways all of these 'alternative' vehicles are just 'hedge bets' or even flexing R&D muscle for PR and research purposes with no real intent to go into mass production. The way I heard it presented was US companies 'tricked' the Japanese companies into 'wasting' time on hybrid R&D when it wasn't considered a viable market. In the end it was a mistake because now the US companies are playing catch-up to get back into the Hybrid game since it does seem like a very viable segment after all.

I could believe that some day hydrogen fuel celled vehicles could be viable but I keep hearing daunting problems that seem to need a lot more engineering breakthroughs before they will make them practical.

[malcolm]

The way I heard it presented was US companies 'tricked' the Japanese companies into 'wasting' time on hybrid R&D when it wasn't considered a viable market. In the end it was a mistake because now the US companies are playing catch-up to get back into the Hybrid game since it does seem like a very viable segment after all.

It's depressing that such tricks and gamesmanship seem to take Big Auto's eyes off the ball:-

http://www.forbes.com/home/vehicles/..._1115cars.html

[TEG]

More on Honda "Clarity":

http://blogs.edmunds.com/GreenCarAdvisor/101



http://blogs.edmunds.com/GreenCarAdvisor/95
http://blogs.edmunds.com/GreenCarAdvisor/94
http://blogs.edmunds.com/Straightline/3760

[Tesla2Go]

Ulf Bossel, the founder of the European Fuel Cell forum seems to agree as well:

The rush into a hydrogen economy is neither supported by energy
efficiency arguments nor justified with respect to economy or
ecology. In fact, it appears that hydrogen will not play an important
role in a sustainable energy economy because the synthetic
energy carrier cannot be more efficient than the energy from
which it is made. Renewable electricity is better distributed by
electrons than by hydrogen.
Consequently, the hasty introduction of hydrogen as an
energy carrier cannot be a stepping stone into a sustainable
energy future. The opposite may be true. Because of the wastefulness
of a hydrogen economy, the promotion of hydrogen may
counteract all reasonable measures of energy conservation.
Even worse, the forced transition to a hydrogen economy may
prevent the establishment of a sustainable energy economy
based on an intelligent use of precious renewable resources.

http://www.efcf.com/reports/E11.pdf

[TEG]

[vfx]

I love the 5 miracles! My favorite part of the WKTEC movie!

I used to belive the Hydrogen Hype and nothing has ever put the pointlessness of it in perspective better.

The 5 Miracles should be posted in/on every EV website.

[BlackbirdHighway]

Regarding that first miracle, the high cost of the car, there was one interesting insight recently. In an interview on AutoBlogGreen, an executive from Honda said that he expected that by 2018, they will get the price down to the cost of a high end sports car. So, that puts them, in ten years, about where Tesla is now. As battery technology continues to improve over the next ten years, the need for hydrogen will probably dissipate just like the liquid hydrogen stored in the BMW cars.

I think another miracle, the high cost of the hydrogen fuel relative to the cost of gasoline, will be solved by the price of oil going much higher. I still don't think that make hydrogen viable for cars, but maybe for airplanes it's a good solution.

[Takumi]

I still don't think that make hydrogen viable for cars, but maybe for airplanes it's a good solution.

Is that why Honda is making planes?

[BlackbirdHighway]

More hydrogen hype. I haven't seen much of this in a while, but it's not completely dead yet.

AlterNet: Environment: Is the Hydrogen Age Just Around the Corner?

And no, that's not the same Jerry Brown from California politics.