How can Tesla survive, with single phase charging clients?

Looking over the fence...

My Nissan Leaf Story: The Renault/Nissan Alliance - What Alliance?

Nissan prefer DC fast charging using the CHAdeMO standard while Renault prefer AC 3-phase or battery swap. Not only that but it seems that Renault are even confused themselves because they intend to use the J1772 AC standard used by Nissan in the first year of the Fluence Z.E. followed by the Mennekes 3-phase AC standard for subsequent years. To be honest it is a real dogs dinner.

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The discussion for 3-ph charging will go on for the next few years, until public inductive charging will be available. Even for me, overnight charging at my 3-ph 32A socket with the use of only one phase an 16A covers my daily need (100km-130km). Only on long distance its a mess, waiting 6h while charging on 32A what can be done in 2h. Thats why i am eager to have 3-ph support. Model S can be ordered with a second 10kW charger. But JB even denied the use of two different phases. This would even double the charging speed from 7,2kW to 14,4kW. JB also told my, that he does not care Europe. American is the core market. I agree with other, who say, that the whole yearly production of 20.000-60.000 can be sold easily in America only.
On medium to longterm outlook, if Tesla wants a certain share in the european market, they have to satisfy the customers need here otherwise they will find themselves to be in the same situation like all the other american car makers now. Their number of sales in Europe is little to nothing.

I think Tesla wants to focus primarily in the US markets. They are not alone, Nissan has a similar strategy too until the Sunderland plant is ready to build the Leaf. Enthusiasm for EVs in general is still relatively low in Europe, esp. in the larger German and UK markets. There are only a few European markets that have showed strong interest in EVs, but they tend to be much smaller car markets.

I think in the previous three-phase thread someone came up with a formula that's probably very similar to what Tesla would use to figure out if it makes business sense to build a three-phase socket and a three-phase charger. It's all an economic decision.

stopcrazypp said:

It's all an economic decision.

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If that were true then they'd just support 3-Phase on the European models because it has little real impact on the cost of the vehicle.

IMO Tesla did not understand that 3-Phase is critical in Europe... if they had done so then they would have designed a connector that could cope.

stopcrazypp said:

I think Tesla wants to focus primarily in the US markets.

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That's a very dangerous strategy... if they allow the Germans time to embrace EV's then Tesla will lose out big time... especially in key future markets like China.

Norbert said:

Looking over the fence...

My Nissan Leaf Story: The Renault/Nissan Alliance - What Alliance?

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Having just spent a couple of days with Renault in Portugal (and previously with Nissan) I believe that the strategies of both companies on charging will merge as we move forward.

Specifically Renault execs made it clear that;

The Fluence ZE does not have fast charge because the car supports Better Place battery swap (and the development costs of the car have already been paid for by the BP order).

The Kangoo ZE does not have fast charge because the primary customers such as La Poste have well known daily mileage requirements.

The Zoe ZE will have 3-Phase fast charge because it's widely available in the target markets (Northern Europe).

The Alliance are actively looking at standardised AC/DC charging and will support whatever the market requires.

Kevin Sharpe said:

If that were true then they'd just support 3-Phase on the European models because it has little real impact on the cost of the vehicle.

IMO Tesla did not understand that 3-Phase is critical in Europe... if they had done so then they would have designed a connector that could cope.

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You can't ignore the economic factor even if the unit price may only be a fraction of the total purchase price (ignoring R&D other initial overhead at the moment). I think this is true of options/extra features in the most cars; car makers omit or remove them if it doesn't offer enough value in terms of attracting the customer and matching competitors vs the cost.

The critical variable in that economic formula is how many potential Tesla customers will not buy a Tesla mainly because of the lack of 3-phase charging. This is compounded by the fact the Model S doesn't exactly have many competitors right now (much less competitors with a 3-phase socket and charger). Right now we are all just guessing; we don't know for sure.

Of course looking at the connector design, I definitely want Tesla to at least design it so it can support 3-phase (even if they don't really plan to offer a 3-phase charger in the near future). That's the only way it can strive to be an international standard (although it'll work perfectly fine as a standard in the North American / Japanese markets).

stopcrazypp said:

The critical variable in that economic formula is how many potential Tesla customers will not buy a Tesla mainly because of the lack of 3-phase charging.

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I'm aware of three people in the UK who have decided not to buy the Model S without 3-Phase charging. Two are Roadster owners and one is a punter who's desperate to buy an EV. While it's true I do not need 3-Phase in the UK (because we have high power 1-Phase) I do need it when I travel to mainland Europe.... something I would want to do with a car like the Model S.

to make clear, a 3-ph 32A/400V does not cost more then a single phase 80A charger. With Model S they offer two 10kW (40A) charger, why not a 3rd one, connected to different phases. Its just, Tesla simple does not care. there is no economic reason.

If Tesla really doesn't care about Europe and Germany, I don't care about Tesla. It's as simple as that. No 3 Phase, no Model S for me. I sure know BMW DOES care about me...

I am slowly to have my doubts and I am not sure if I will proceed without 3-phase charging. I wish there was competition...

I caught myself looking at a Prius Wagon:redface:

BMW may care for a lot of things, but I don't care too much for BMW. Doing pilot projects and showing prototypes doesn't impress me at all.

Kevin Sharpe said:

Having just spent a couple of days with Renault in Portugal (and previously with Nissan) I believe that the strategies of both companies on charging will merge as we move forward.

The Zoe ZE will have 3-Phase fast charge because it's widely available in the target markets (Northern Europe).

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Yeah, but the Zoe will not support CHAdeMO. While there are no three-phase charging point in Norway (and none planned), we do have quite a few CHAdeMO chargers, and many more to come. At the end of 2012, we will have between 50 and 100 of them. Because of that, I don't see the Zoe selling much compared to the Leaf or the iMiEV.

AnOutsider said:

...are you just being melodramatic?

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Like this guy:

AnOutsider said:

Are you actually privvy to inside info that tesla doesn't care, or are you just being melodramatic?

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i met JB Straubel twice, first time in Milan where he promised me a solution for the Models S. Second 1st oct in Fremont, where he pointed out to the DC charging as the solution for me. Thats not the way how you are going to tread a current customer. I was talking to Elon Musk as well as to Georg Blankenship to make them clear how important 3-ph charing is For Europe and the future business here. But they are really focused on the american market and in love with their new socket which is not compatible with 3-phases.

Eberhard said:

to make clear, a 3-ph 32A/400V does not cost more then a single phase 80A charger. With Model S they offer two 10kW (40A) charger, why not a 3rd one, connected to different phases. Its just, Tesla simple does not care. there is no economic reason.

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Again, I want to make it clear this is not how you calculate economic impact. You have to look at the demand for a 80A charger vs demand for the 3-phase charger (and since it is a global market, you have to look at overall demand across the world). It doesn't matter if a 3 phase charger is cheaper if the demand for it is much less (actually in Model S's case, as you point out, a 3 phase charger would be about 1/3 more expensive than the single phase 80A charger, simply because of the 10kW module design, plus I think the 3 modules don't physically fit in the car; they will need to redesign it if they want cheaper three phase, which means more R&D costs they have to recoup).

Tesla already has established data that there is demand for a 80A charger (since the Roadster had one similar). There is no such data for three phase; not many other EVs are offering it and definitely not in Model S's class, where Tesla has little to no competition. Therefore, Tesla is guessing that demand is relatively low. At this point, it is up to potential customers to convince them there is demand, since it appears they haven't done market research on this matter (or that the market research didn't show enough demand). It might not be too late, but it seems they have invested enough in the new socket design that they are reluctant to change it. Only something really strong, like a major competitor offering three-phase as a highlighted feature, might make them quickly change their minds, but I think it'll take a while for such a competitor to appear.

teslas 80A charger are composed from two 40A charger (10kW each). finding space for a third charger should be easy. but even to use those two on different phases seems impossible