Tesla Against Big Oil

[vfx]

Uncrushable!

[Norbert]

Big Oil might know better than anyone else that we need an alternative for the future...

[Norbert]

Point in case...

Green Car Congress: Shell exec says biofuels are the most important alternative to fossil hydrocarbons in mobility for the next 20 years

Reijnhart said that fossil fuels will be harder and more expensive to get, given that new oil and gas reserves are likely to be found under ice caps, deeper under the sea or under difficult political conditions. Shell’s view is that the 3% of energy for mobility from alternative sources will increase to up to 30% after 2030, with the increase coming from a portfolio of products.

Overall, he called for support from the EU and national governments to ensure that the industry is able to meet the RED targets.

(RED = Renewable Energy Directive)

[VolkerP]

Is that a fuel filler cap on the T Rex back?

[VolkerP]

you need 2/3 of all U.S. arable land covered with miscanthus grass or another cellulose crop and a very efficient process to turn it into alcohol to replace HALF of all passenger car miles driven in the US. What to do with trucks/road freight? Ships? Diesel trains? Pax+cargo planes? Air Force? Army? Navy?
To saturate the U.S. energy demand for transportation & defense you need something in the order of magnitude like the whole current arable land of the planet.
Problem is, there are some people left outside US that want to drive, fly, and have cargo shipped to them. Plus some 7bn people who want to eat corn, wheat, and meat - can't feed them from Exxon/Shell shares.

Big Oil must step back from the business model of selling chemical energy. And it will be crushing.

[dpeilow]

Or as Martin showed back in the day:

[Norbert]

Not sure why this calculations are limited to 50%? Because even the proponents don't expect 100%?

BTW, Shell even sees "a place" for electricity:

Within this, Shell sees a place for gas, hydrogen and electricity, but Reijnhart was clear that: “We see biofuels as the single most important alternative to hydrocarbons in mobility in the next 20 years.”

So I think the significant point is that this is apparently the official position of Shell, a company who should know, that oil should be reduced by (probably at least) 30% around 2030, and that they even ask for government support for this transition (however of course in favor of their own proposed solution).

[Robert.Boston]

Shell is probably right. Even if 100% of all new cars sold from 2012 onward were EVs, there is a large stock of ICE cars that will continue to need fuel for another decade. And, of course, EVs won't even represent 10% of new cars sold from 2012-2015, so the ICE inventory is replenishing.

No single technology is going to solve all the planet's sustainability issues; it's really a question of emphasis and urgency. There's clearly a role for biofuels, primarily as a transitional measure. The challenge is making them without driving food prices up and leading to increased nutritional deprivation. Algae cultured in non-arable regions? Something else? I hope there are great minds working on this.

[Norbert]

Yep, asking for 30% to be replaced with something else, in 18 years, is a lot.

Within the possibilities of EVs, I think it is very important to demonstrate, in practice, more or less three things:
- that long range EVs are capable of replacing most or all ICEs (even though not all EVs have to be long range).
- that battery prices are falling, becoming visible in EV prices for a specific range.
- that automakers are able to make profits selling EVs.

Together, these will convince the mainstream that EVs are able to provide a viable future, which will allow the whole society to work on, and support, the progress of EV technology, manufacturing and the growth of the market. With that, progress can be fast, yet still 30% in 18 years is a large number and may ask for adding temporary substitutes even if their time will be limited.

[vfx]

Muppets against big oil:
http://www.thewrap.com/movies/column-post/fox-accuses-muppets-waging-class-warfare-kids-33333

Brings to mind It's a Wondeful Life and
Modern Times