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Thread: Predictions

  1. #71
    Member MarkR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TEG View Post
    Or the SpaceX version...
    Well played TEG . . . now I don't have to do the Photoshop work to construct a TeXlabago.
    "If this is the future, I'm not that worried." Jay Leno (after driving a Tesla)
    Deposit: Oct '09. 2nd Model S: 85, Red, Tan Leather, Obeche Matte, Tech, Pano, Active Air, Armor, 19"

  2. #72
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    With the significant rise of the stock price over the last six weeks, I’ve been thinking more and more about the long term plan of Tesla. I decided to write up where I think Tesla is going to be in the next 10 years, but really I’d be interested in reading other people’s predictions too. So here’s what I’m guessing:

    I think in 10 years they’ll have two major very versatile platforms: the large platform (e.g. Model S) and the small platform (e.g. Gen III), with many different vehicles built on these two platforms.

    I think in 10 years they’ll have a second factory.

    Major vehicle release timeline:

    2012: Large platform car (Model S)
    2014: Large platform SUV (Model X)
    2017: Small platform car (Gen III)
    2018: Large platform truck
    2022: Small platform SUV
    2022: Large platform updated to version 2.0

    I don’t have a timeline for this, but I’m sure over time they’ll also release many variants of each of the above vehicles:

    Large platform car (Model S)
    • Big battery / Small battery
    • Performance / Non-performance
    • Convertible / Sedan
    • AWD / RWD

    Large platform SUV (Model X)
    • Big battery / Small battery
    • Performance / Non-performance
    • AWD / RWD

    Large platform truck
    • Big battery / Small battery
    • Performance / Non-performance

    Small platform car
    • Big battery / Small battery
    • Performance / Non-performance
    • Convertible / Sedan
    • AWD / RWD

    Small platform SUV
    • Big battery / Small battery
    • Performance / Non-performance
    • AWD / RWD

    By around 2023, all of these variants will exist and will be coming out of two factories. That’s 10 years from now. At around that time, Tesla will still not be making as much money or cars as BMW, but because the market takes into account the future, Tesla will be valued at just higher than BMW. BMW currently has a market cap of 56 billion. If Tesla achieved a market cap of 60 billion (being just over BMW), that’s a stock price of $523. So I guess I shouldn't consider selling until TSLA hits $500.

    What do you guys think? Am I being too aggressive with my predictions here? What are your predictions?
    Last edited by JRod0802; 2013-05-11 at 02:44 PM. Reason: changed the stock price numbers... copied the wrong number from my spreadsheet
    Copyright 2014. Do not use this material outside of Tesla Motors Club without attribution and permission.

  3. #73
    Senior Member Lloyd's Avatar
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    You forgot a new roadster in there somewhere!
    SP-2823(sold), Tesla/Rav4EV, P+17252, XP-12

  4. #74
    ERIC VFX vfx's Avatar
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    Yeah, where's the Supercar?

  5. #75
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    I was thinking the small platform car AWD, large battery, performance, convertible would be the "next gen roadster". Maybe I'm wrong here, it's just that Elon tends to get over exicted with predictions sometimes, and I think the "next gen roadster" will really just be the souped-up convertible Gen III.
    Last edited by JRod0802; 2013-05-09 at 09:25 PM.
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  6. #76
    Roadster Sports 835 & 972 ipdamages's Avatar
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    I think that the fact that multiple people at Tesla have said they are doing a supercar after Gen 3, combined with ego, as well as the fact that the technology is well suited for it, and the Tesla culture of doing things that make people say wow, make a supercar very likely. At least I hope so. And I don't think I'm alone in that hope.

    And when I say supercar, I mean more than a Gen 3 convertible.

  7. #77
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    I think you also forgot a small and large platform Coupe and maybe a large platform convertible.

  8. #78
    Member Cattledog's Avatar
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    JRod - My automotive touchstone is Porsche. Cayenne, Panamera, Cayman/Boxster, 911. Tight number of models, lots of variants. Highest margins in the industry (21%?). 200K worldwide sales. A month or two ago, they were valued at $20M. Since I think they can match Porsche sales in 5 years with S, X, and Gen3, I think a $200 share price is achievable in 3-4 years if they hit all their targets. After that, their upside potentially is a BMW, so $450/share within a decade. After that, who knows.

    Or I could be all wrong.


    I
    Quote Originally Posted by JRod0802 View Post
    With the significant rise of the stock price over the last six weeks, I’ve been thinking more and more about the long term plan of Tesla. I decided to write up where I think Tesla is going to be in the next 10 years, but really I’d be interested in reading other people’s predictions too. So here’s what I’m guessing:

    I think in 10 years they’ll have two major very versatile platforms: the large platform (e.g. Model S) and the small platform (e.g. Gen III), with many different vehicles built on these two platforms.

    I think in 10 years they’ll have a second factory.

    Major vehicle release timeline:

    2012: Large platform car (Model S)
    2014: Large platform SUV (Model X)
    2017: Small platform car (Gen III)
    2018: Large platform truck
    2022: Small platform SUV
    2022: Large platform updated to version 2.0

    I don’t have a timeline for this, but I’m sure over time they’ll also release many variants of each of the above vehicles:

    Large platform car (Model S)
    • Big battery / Small battery
    • Performance / Non-performance
    • Convertible / Sedan
    • AWD / RWD

    Large platform SUV (Model X)
    • Big battery / Small battery
    • Performance / Non-performance
    • AWD / RWD

    Large platform truck
    • Big battery / Small battery
    • Performance / Non-performance

    Small platform car
    • Big battery / Small battery
    • Performance / Non-performance
    • Convertible / Sedan
    • AWD / RWD

    Small platform SUV
    • Big battery / Small battery
    • Performance / Non-performance
    • AWD / RWD

    By around 2023, all of these variants will exist and will be coming out of two factories. That’s 10 years from now. At around that time, Tesla will still not be making as much money or cars as BMW, but because the market takes into account the future, Tesla will be valued at just higher than BMW. BMW currently has a market cap of 56 billion. If Tesla achieved a market cap of 60 billion (being just over BMW), that’s a stock price of $293. So I guess I shouldn't consider selling until TSLA hits $250.

    What do you guys think? Am I being too aggressive with my predictions here? What are your predictions?

  9. #79
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    I know I am probably dreaming but how about this: The Tesla Truck platform is big enough to carry a car; so Tesla make a “bad ass” pickup truck, but they also do a car carrying truck off the same platform. Evs delivering Evs. Your Tesla delivered on a Tesla with the truck driver doubling as the Delivery Specialist.

  10. #80
    2014 P85D, X seq 2,318 andrewket's Avatar
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    Please, next gen convertible with seating for 4.
    P85D, red/tan, obeche matte, black headliner, all options -3rd row. December delivery.
    Model X sequence P2,318 (gave up S476)
    Sold-P85+, red/black, CF trim+spoiler, all options in 2013, 19" TST grey wheels, Reus audio


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