Predictions

[tdelta1000]

Hey VolkerP,

That was a nice bit of information.

[Kevin Harney]

Here are my predictions...

Model S (Sedan)
Production Year 2012 (2nd generation platform)
4 Doors, 5 + 2 (Rear Facing) Seats, & Aluminum Body.
160, 230, or 300 mile range (upgraded to 230, 300, or 370 mile range in 2016)
0 to 60 MPH in 4.5 seconds
Starting at 57,400

Model X (Crossover)
Production Year 2013 (2nd generation platform)
4 Doors, 7 Seats, Off Road / Towing Features, & Aluminum Body.
160, 230, or 300 mile range (upgraded to 230, 300, or 370 mile range in 2016)
0 to 60 MPH in 4.8 seconds
Starting at 67,400

Model S (Sedan) Convertible
Production Year 2014 (2nd generation platform)
4 Doors, 5 Seats, & Aluminum Body with Carbon Fiber Retractable Roof.
160, 230, or 300 mile range (upgraded to 230, 300, or 370 mile range in 2016)
0 to 60 MPH in 4.6 seconds
Starting at 71,400

Model R (Roadster)
Production Year 2015 (3rd generation platform)
2 Doors, 2 + 2 (Vestigial) Seats, & Carbon Fiber Body.
300 mile range (upgraded to 370 mile range in 2016)
0 to 60 MPH in 2.7 seconds (2 Speed Transmission)
Starting at 87,400

Model C (Coupe)
Production Year 2016 (3rd generation platform)
2 Doors, 4 Seats, & Aluminum Body.
160, 230, or 300 mile range
0 to 60 MPH in 5.5 seconds
Starting at 37,400

Model R (Roadster) Convertible
Production Year 2017 (3rd generation platform)
2 Doors, 2 + 2 (Vestigial) Seats, & Carbon Fiber Body with Carbon Fiber Retractable Roof.
370 mile range
0 to 60 MPH in 2.8 seconds (2 Speed Transmission)
Starting at 101,400

Sport edition offered on all models.
All-wheel drive offered on all models (coming to Model S in 2013).

Here is my take on this .... I like it but there are a few logical problems with it .... First. Model S Convertible. I do not know of any convertibles that are 4 dr. And I think that perhaps they might come up with something similar to the BMW M6 Convertible for this. As that size car is more in line with the Model S chassis and is a 2 dr. Second Isn't part of the defination of a Roadster a convertible ?!?! So the new Roadster on the 3rd gen platform would probably come out as a convertible maybe with a hardtop or t top option instead of 2 years later making it a convertible. And where is something closer to Bluestar in your prediction ?

[vfx]

Thanks for that volker. On the earlier pages it lists the s and x on the platform, then lists "other derivative(s)". Meaning one ore more. The graph later on does show the arrows off the platform pointing to s, x and two empty slots, but I wonder if that's just because that's how the original graphic was (from the slideshow).

Regardless, we can be fairly sure we'll get a convertible, but after that, there's the "van", which I don't see selling well unless to fleets..

Hoping by then they have a complete 2nd team working on the third gen Blustar (parallel, not series).

[vfx]

Here is my take on this .... I like it but there are a few logical problems with it .... First. Model S Convertible.... BMW M6 Convertible for this... Second Isn't part of the defination of a Roadster a convertible ?!?! So the new Roadster on the 3rd gen platform would probably come out as a convertible maybe with a hardtop or t top option instead of 2 years later making it a convertible. ...

I'm thinking the rigid battery - skateboard arrangement is well suited for the extra strength needed to support a convertible. May not even add any weight unlike other cars need to.

[VolkerP]

Hey VolkerP,

That was a nice bit of information.

redirecting thanks to michiganmodels here for digging up that PDF.

[sjoshuaj]

Here is my take on this .... I like it but there are a few logical problems with it .... First. Model S Convertible. I do not know of any convertibles that are 4 dr. And I think that perhaps they might come up with something similar to the BMW M6 Convertible for this. As that size car is more in line with the Model S chassis and is a 2 dr. Second Isn't part of the defination of a Roadster a convertible ?!?! So the new Roadster on the 3rd gen platform would probably come out as a convertible maybe with a hardtop or t top option instead of 2 years later making it a convertible. And where is something closer to Bluestar in your prediction ?

While traditionally convertibles are 2 doors there has been a lot of interest as of late with building a 4 door variant. Audi, Mercedes, and Cadillac all have prototypes. And as someone else has already stated the main motivating factor for going with 2 doors, the need for structural rigidity, is no longer an issue with the Model S.

Yeah, you may be right. Tesla may only offer the Roadster as a hard top convertible due to limited demand. However, I don't think it'll be a T top again. All the knowledge they'll gain by making a Model S Convertible will help them here.

The blue star in my prediction was the "Model C".

[VolkerP]

The blue star in my prediction was the "Model C".

2 doors? Ok, as a way to save costs (=keep the promised base price of ~35k).
4 doors then should be an option, like in VW Golf.
Both variants should have a hatch back.

[sjoshuaj]

2 doors? Ok, as a way to save costs (=keep the promised base price of ~35k).
4 doors then should be an option, like in VW Golf.
Both variants should have a hatch back.

Yeah, that's exactly what I was thinking. In order to make the ~35k price point they're going to have to dramatically reduce the size and weight of the car (2 doors and 4 seats). Which will in turn allow them to use far fewer and/or far cheaper batteries. Otherwise how else are you going to reduce the price of the car by 20,000 (35% reduction) below the Model S (4 doors and 5 seats) base price?

And yes I definitely think it'll be a hatch back and in the same manner as the Model S.

[neroden]

Regardless, we can be fairly sure we'll get a convertible, but after that, there's the "van", which I don't see selling well unless to fleets, so maybe they may do that after blue star (or just not make a huge deal about it on the consumer side). I ant think of anything else to make from the s platform that would make sense. A wagon? S already has ample storage. A pickup truck? Meh, can't see that either.

There's a definite need for a pickup. I'm not quite sure how well it would sell unless the price dropped, but there are some pretty pricey pickups on the market now.

An electric pickup with a large range will definitely be a viable purchase for the sort of businesses which drive pickups: driving long distances, but not *that* long; driving every single day; back home every evening. So, high usage (favors electric over gas), but no really long trips (most businesses using pickups aren't serving customers over 150 miles away), and plenty of night time to charge. Pickups can't be made terribly aerodynamic. But they can be made fairly light. And this would probably be the single most stable pickup on the market, thanks to the center of gravity. Wouldn't get perfect crash-safety ratings (due to the cab being close to the front of the vehicle), but pickups generally don't.

There are also an awful lot of people in semi-rural areas who don't really need pickups but drive 'em anyways. I think it would be a bigger seller than the van, though the van might be a decent fleet seller as you say. The pickup-van design differences would be really small anyway.

OK, so Tesla hasn't proposed a pickup yet. But I think they could *control* the electric pickup market -- nobody else seems to have even considered producing one -- and it would be pretty easy to do it based on the Model S skateboard. So that's what I'm hoping (as a stockholder) they do after the X.

Edit: call it the Model P.

[AnOutsider]

I might be coloring this with my own needs, but I can't see the market for an electric pickup. Probably wouldn't get great range hauling crap, and as you said, it won't be very aerodynamic. I picture pickups as pretty utilitarian. I may need one in the future for hauling crap to and from Lowes or around the property, but I'd likely get a cheap beater for the task.