How far does an EV have to go before it will sell?

[AnOutsider]

For the 160-mile Model S, I would expect an official EPA range of 109 miles and I would be shocked if you didn't consistently see at least 100 miles of range under real-world conditions.

That would be quite sad. Doesn't Tesla state the roadster gets 245 miles? The EPA rated it at 244 miles, which makes Tesla 99% accurate with their stated mileage. I should hope that they don't slip down to being only 68% accurate. That would put the 300m pack at just over 200 miles of range.

I've come to expect Tesla to under promise and over deliver, so I'd hope they were more on point with their numbers.

Very true, but don't you agree that the cost to roll-out fast charger infrastructure is going to be orders of magnitude less than what it took to build the gasoline station network?

I honestly don't have a black or white answer on this, but why do you foresee it being much less costly?

[Larry Chanin]

For 160-mile Model S, I would be shocked if you didn't consistently see at least 100 miles of range under real-world conditions.

Hi,

Thanks, your remarks give us cause for optimism. The revised rough estimate places the range at 98 miles at 80 mph.

Perhaps we are starting to hair-split. The fact is that the Tesla Roadster source graph I used shows meeting the EPA range at about at 55 mph. Even if the EPA number turns out to be slightly pessimistic, I am confident that there will be a considerable reduction in range at 70-80 mph, and these higher speeds are more relevant when discussing range anxiety issues.

Larry

[surfingslovak]

I am confident that there will be a considerable reduction in range at 70-80 mph, and these higher speeds are more relevant when discussing range anxiety issues.

Yes, I agree with your assessment and I admit that having an EV has prompted me to reduce my typical freeway speed and I rarely go over 75 mph now. I think I understand now why you used the EPA label on your estimates, they came from the source graph you used. That makes sense, but it confused me and it still confuses me. I connect this term with what's on the Monroney sticker. I think you used energy efficiency estimates for various speeds provided by the EPA, not an official EPA range estimate for the Model S, which does not exist yet.

[Larry Chanin]

That would be quite sad. Doesn't Tesla state the roadster gets 245 miles? The EPA rated it at 244 miles, which makes Tesla 99% accurate with their stated mileage. I should hope that they don't slip down to being only 68% accurate. That would put the 300m pack at just over 200 miles of range.

I've come to expect Tesla to under promise and over deliver, so I'd hope they were more on point with their numbers.

Hi,

The point isn't that Tesla is being inaccurate. The point is that the EPA conditions mix which comes out to an equivalent to driving at 55 mph doesn't match the actual highway speeds that most of us use when traveling long distances where range is a concern.

I honestly don't have a black or white answer on this, but why do you foresee it being much less costly?

With charging infrastructure you can put an unattended charger in a restaurant parking lot. You can't do that with a gasoline pump. There are a whole host of regulatory hurdles that gasoline pumps have to accommodate that requires attendants and other infrastructure, such as huge underground gasoline tanks.

Larry

[Larry Chanin]

I think you used energy efficiency estimates for various speeds provided by the EPA, not an official EPA range estimate for the Model S, which does not exist yet.

Hi,

As I explained I used the range versus speed data for the Roadster provided by Tesla and applied them to the Model S. It turns out an average speed of 55 mph is approximately equivalent to the EPA condition mix.

Larry

[ckessel]

160 mile battery, in standard mode, at 70mph. 100 mile actual range sounds likely with those combinations. Well, maybe a bit more, but I wouldn't want to push it more than 100 to be safe.

[surfingslovak]

It turns out an average speed of 55 mph is approximately equivalent to the EPA condition mix.

Thanks for responding, but I think you lost me there again. Which EPA condition mix are you referring to? I don't think that this was stated in the original post, and it would be great if you included that reference in your table.

Based on the numbers, I believe that you are using an older cycle, the LA4 or UDDS perhaps. The point being, I'm getting energy economy consistent with the EPA LA4 cycle when driving the Leaf on the freeway at 50 mph. At the same speed, I'm getting 30% better economy than the official EPA range estimate from the Monroney sticker. I believe that the latter is based on a much more aggressive and recent US06 test cycle.

I don't know what cycle Tesla is using to determine their ideal miles. Perhaps they are a bit more honest about it than Nissan, which is using the outdated LA4 cycle with an average speed of 21.2 miles. This sort of test is not applicable to modern metro driving, the majority of which occurs on freeways. You will not be seeing this type of range on the freeway unless you are willing and able to drive very slowly, about 50 and no more than 55 mph.

Be it as it may, I saw a comment from an owner in the UK mentioning that his Roadster is getting ~150 miles at motorway speeds. Given that the Roadster has 2.2 times the battery capacity of the Leaf, I would assume that it would have a bit more than twice its EPA range: 2.2 x 73 = 160 miles.

[Mycroft]

FYI, Tesla originally claimed 250 miles on a charge. When the EPA came back with the 244 estimate, Tesla changed their claim to 245 miles.

[NigelM]

I think it's great to analyze the numbers and that should help people decide what sort of battery size they may need. Here's the actual in-use experience: I haven't read anywhere where a member of this forum has run out of power in their Roadster (not saying it hasn't happened, but it must be pretty rare). Some of us have regular commutes and some of us drive varying distances every day and some of us don't even drive every day, so sure trip planning becomes an everyday part of life but the thing is that I think all EV drivers take charging opportunities when they arise and then stop worrying about range too much.

Arguably the Model S attracts a different type of driving and the possibility of road trips, but that just takes some getting used to. I love the quote that I read on this forum once: "I don't stop to charge, I charge when I stop..."

[Larry Chanin]

Thanks for responding, but I think you lost me there again. Which EPA condition mix are you referring to? I don't think that this was stated in the original post, and it would be great if you included that reference in your table.

Based on the numbers, I believe that you are using an older cycle, the LA4 or UDDS perhaps. The point being, I'm getting energy economy consistent with the EPA LA4 cycle when driving the Leaf on the freeway at 50 mph. At the same speed, I'm getting 30% better economy than the official EPA range estimate from the Monroney sticker. I believe that the latter is based on a much more aggressive and recent US06 test cycle.

I don't know what cycle Tesla is using to determine their ideal miles. Perhaps they are a bit more honest about it than Nissan, which is using the outdated LA4 cycle with an average speed of 21.2 miles. This sort of test is not applicable to modern metro driving, the majority of which occurs on freeways. You will not be seeing this type of range on the freeway unless you are willing and able to drive very slowly, about 50 and no more than 55 mph.

Be it as it may, I saw a comment from an owner in the UK mentioning that his Roadster is getting ~150 miles at motorway speeds. Given that the Roadster has 2.2 times the battery capacity of the Leaf, I would assume that it would have a bit more than twice its EPA range: 2.2 x 73 = 160 miles.

Hi,

I know that you mean well, but you are making what was a simple, rough estimate to demonstrate a basic fact, that range drops off quite a bit at high speeds, into a complicated off-topic detour. If you refer back to my revised chart you will see that at a highway speed of 80 mph it matches what your UK owner experienced, a reduction to 61% of EPA range.

I feel that I have already answered your questions repeatedly, and no offense, but this will be my last response to you. By conditions mix I was referring to the fact that the EPA range is actually a combination of city and highway driving. It turns out using the Tesla Roadster data that the EPA range is achieved when driving at a constant speed of 55 mph. I am not using any "cycles", EPA or otherwise. I repeat I am only using the graph provided by Tesla for the Roadster and using it to extrapolate to Model S battery packs.

I would be very happy if it turned out actual range at realistic highway speeds exceeded EPA ratings, but I have not run across any reports regarding Roadsters that would support that conclusion.

Larry