I think it will only noticeably affect sales of EV's and possibly very small blips on the entry level luxury guys' radars. The overall car market is way too huge. Doesn't GM sell as many cars in a month as Tesla does in a year? And that is just GM.
The problem with this point of view is that it overlooks that a company such as General Motors, which is composed of three main brands in the US alone, plus GMC, doesn't just outsell Tesla Motors by that margin, but a whole lot of other companies in the segment. It also overlooks that the Model S, for three calendar years straight 2013-2015, has outsold all of its direct competitors in the US, except the Mercedes-Benz S-Class, which reclaimed the throne temporarily during 2014, only to fall back into second place in 2015, as they were in 2013. In 2015, while flagship vehicles from Lexus, BMW, Infiniti, AUDI, Jaguar, and Mercedes-Benz all saw their sales drop, the Model S sales went up, and widened the margin between itself and the others.
This was not a
'small blip' in the slightest, because it is what led NADA and their membership of
'independent franchised dealerships' to notice in the first half of 2013 that something was wrong. It wasn't just the economy, people were purposefully choosing to wait three months to get a car they ordered from Tesla Motors, instead of choosing to go buy cars off the dealership lots or showrooms. Those who convinced themselves this was
'just a fad' and that it would
'eventually die down' have a baker's dozen of egg on their face. Much the same will happen with Model ≡. Heck, it's gonna happen with Model X first -- just watch.
Had the Model S been a low selling, relative failure, perhaps moving as few cars as Maserati, or half as many as Porsche Panamera, everything would have been fine. All the sudden interest in imposing bans to Tesla Motors' chosen selling method would not have been proposed. Their stock would have not crossed $40.00 and Corey Johnson and Jim Cramer would be breaking their arms patting themselves on the back while going hoarse as they proclaimed,
"See? I told you so!"
Yes, the overall market is pretty darned spectacularly huge. There were over 17,000,000 vehicles sold in the United States during 2015. But there are key market segments that are strong indicators. The price range that the Model ≡ will occupy is one of them. It is the part of the market that everyone hopes their ordinary, everyday Customers will someday grow into. Hence, why General Motors has cars from all three of its passenger vehicle segments
(Chevrolet, Buick, and Cadillac) competing against each other in it. Same thing for Honda & Acura, Ford and Lincoln, Volkswagen and AUDI, Toyota and Lexus...
Basically, $35,000 is the crossroads of a whole plethora of marques. So, yes, a newcomer such as Tesla Motors bringing its cars to this segment will make very visible waves in a segment of cars that exists solely for profit making for their respective manufacturers, who gussy up old tech in the finest makeup, sexiest clothing, and most vibrant perfume they can find to sell old wares as something new, different, and luxurious -- at a premium -- set off by a dog & pony show, a fireworks display, and lots of smoke & mirrors for dazzling effect. Every percentage point of market share they lose to Tesla Motors will be felt, deep in the bottom line, and they'll likely protest it was a blow below the belt.
