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Hawaii - Model 3 reservations

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W00t!!! So who's gonna line-up at the Hawaii store to reserve on March 31st? I think that despite the fact that Tesla has a huge fan base now compared to 3 years ago when the Model S debuted, we will still be one of the 'early adopters' as far as reservations for the Model 3 go if you line up a day in advance of the on-line availability. I will likely have to sell my Model S to be able to get a well-loaded Model 3, but I think I will be happy with it. It will be less tech, but I really do not need such a big car.
 
the question is... how many days before the 31st will people start camping out in front the store! Black Friday lines... but then again, us being here in Hawaii, it's pretty much the last place on earth to start the 31st.... Should we plan a group trip to the east coast lol... so really will it matter when on the 31st we order it anyway? as we will be behind everyone in the states.... but then it depends on what options we choose to get for production, I have read when the S came out and as the X's are rolling out, the fully loaded ones were made first anyway, so it didn't matter where in line you got for a reservation just earlier then months later??
 
Elon mentioned on yesterday's investor call that the Model 3 will not be like the S and X where there are "signature" or "founders" versions that are fully loaded. All will be the same production model from VIN 001 and it's a $1000 deposit only.
 
And just think about all the thousands and thousands of drivers that took a Model S test drive and did not buy. Those immediately become people that know what Tesla can do and some of them will put down a deposit without waiting around for a 3 to test drive first.

Okay, let's have some fun. Anyone dare to speculate how many reservations/deposits will be placed in the first 48 hours after the 3 is revealed 31 March. I'll go first. 10,000+
And by the end of one full week after: 20,000+

Your turn:
 
Realllly? huh, really? :smile: StephenM don't you find yourself using yours S like a delivery truck from time to time?

I've literally helped people move apartments with my S. They're absolutely gobsmacked when they see how much my car can fit. I would never turn down getting a P90D, but I've gotta say that there is a significant loss of space in the frunk with AWD.

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And just think about all the thousands and thousands of drivers that took a Model S test drive and did not buy. Those immediately become people that know what Tesla can do and some of them will put down a deposit without waiting around for a 3 to test drive first.

Okay, let's have some fun. Anyone dare to speculate how many reservations/deposits will be placed in the first 48 hours after the 3 is revealed 31 March. I'll go first. 10,000+
And by the end of one full week after: 20,000+

Your turn:

Why so low?? lol
These are worldwide reservations now. I do think there will be at least 50k reservations by the end of April. At least. There are 100k Model S on the road now. Of those owners, there are many who will be putting deposits for the Model 3, and some have said they would place several deposits. Add in all of those that couldn't afford a Model S/X in the first place and have been pining for the 3. It's going to be absolutely crazy, and I can't wait to hear on the Q1 conference call how many reservations came in.
 
If you're thinking about placing a deposit for a 3, keep in mind that the $7500 federal tax credit may be phased out before you get your 3 delivered. The tax credit drops to 50% in the two quarters following the sale of the 200,000th Tesla to a US customer, then to 25% in the following two quarters. Reference: IRS Instructions for Form 8936.

Since deliveries of the 3 will likely not start until early 2018, assuming TM hits their targets for 2016 production of 80-90k vehicles (some of which are going to China and Europe), there's a very real possibility that TM will hit the 200,000 US vehicle sales sometime shortly after starting deliveries of the 3, and a lot of folks are going to be disappointed to find out that they may only get $3750 or $1875. Some are suggesting that although there will not be a "signature" 3, that highly optioned 3s will get produced first. Worst case scenario, the 3 is delayed to late 2018 and there's no credit available at all.