Model S Decimates Large Premium/Luxury Car Market

I think you mean 'dominated,' as the market segment changed by < 1% YoY.

The competition is feeling the pain if only their ego's.

The Model S is outselling the competition 10:1 and worse in Switzerland and the Netherlands and Model X is going to increase the hurt.

That's impressive! I expect the UK is at the start of that curve, would love to see the data though.

I know everyone likes to compare the Model S to the 7-series and S-class, but I just don't really get it. The Model S starts at $70k ($60k with rebate). The 7-series starts at $81k. The S-class starts at $95k. The 7-series and S-class are considerably more luxurious than a Model S. The build quality, material quality, and just overall creature-comforts are not anywhere near luxury car standards in a Model S. So why is it being compared to them?

The 7-series and S-class are both 10 inches longer than the Model S. Strictly based on size, it's a lot more similar to a 5-series or an E-class.

So the cheaper, less luxurious, smaller Model S is outselling the more expensive, more luxurious, bigger luxury cars? Ok...

I'm not taking anything away from Tesla, it's still quite an accomplishment, but the comparison is simply not apples to apples.

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On a side note, is there any data on the number of people who actually cross-shop the S-class and the Model S? I remember seeing something about one of the most popular previous cars for Model S owners is a Prius. I find it hard to believe that Prius owners are considering an S-class and choosing a Model S instead. It just seems like a different market and different segment of people. I know when you look at that table it looks like Tesla is stealing luxury market share, but isn't it possible that the luxury market is simply shrinking and Tesla is finding buyers from other segments?

It just seems like most people buy the Model S because it's the only long-range BEV out there, and for many, the only EV worth driving. I find it highly suspect that people are buying the Model S because it's a "luxury" car. Especially when you look at polls on this forum where people tell you this is the most expensive car they've ever purchased, or that they would have never spent anywhere near this kind of money on any other car. Those aren't "luxury" car buyers, but they seem representative of the typical Tesla owner.

MsElectric said:

I still feel decimate is accurate in the context of the Model S taking over such a large market share of the segment.

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No, the market segment was not decimated. The overall sales of the other participants of said segment were. I get what you're saying, and didn't mean to offend--and certainly don't want to continue to derail the thread. Your point is well-taken: Tesla is doing a number on the other participants of the luxury segment, and that's cool.

Market for 4 door sedans getting much worse as consumers convert to SUV and CUV.

benf said:

isn't it possible that the luxury market is simply shrinking and Tesla is finding buyers from other segments?

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sure it is, but it's an awful coincidence that MS sales increased by roughly the same amount as luxury car sales decreased in the same market...

green1 said:

sure it is, but it's an awful coincidence that MS sales increased by roughly the same amount as luxury car sales decreased in the same market...

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It is quite a coincidence, but I bet if you polled every Model S owner, less than 25% of them would tell you they considered any of the cars on that list when purchasing their Model S.

benf said:

It is quite a coincidence, but I bet if you polled every Model S owner, less than 25% of them would tell you they considered any of the cars on that list when purchasing their Model S.

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Luckily that polling has already been done several times, I believe you lose.

green1 said:

Luckily that polling has already been done several times, I believe you lose.

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Please provide the results. I don't care if I'm wrong, I am genuinely curious.

MsElectric said:

Interesting how the market segment has been decimated by Tesla.

It seems the Germans are in complete denial. It's staggering to see how not a single competing vehicle managed to increase its market share.

http://electrek.co/2016/02/10/tesla...upting-the-large-luxury-car-market-in-the-us/

Mercedes is apparently finally working on a smaller EV the size of the C Class to compete with the Model 3 and it is expected to be out in about 2-3 years. However they will not have a larger EV in the segment of the S Class and the Model S for another 4-5 years. They kept telling themselves customers were not ready for a premium long range Ev when it turns out only Mercedes was not ready for such a vehicle.

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The data needs a bit more context, and doesn't reflect the overall change in the automobile market. It does show that it's fairly stagnant in that grouping in terms of raw sales, with Tesla apparently taking sales directly away from others. But that's still reading a lot into things. That would be true only if 100% of Tesla buyers were considering other cars on the list. Since Tesla is taking sales away from other brands too, and in some cases, no other cars were considered (I didn't consider anything else, for the first time in my life) it shows Tesla growing and the others falling, but doesn't really show enough to conclude anything. If, hypothetically, the market as a whole had been falling, the delta between that and the rates in the chart would be relevant. If that overall rate drop were even higher than it fell for some of those models, it could indicate that they fell less than might have been expected, and that Tesla grew faster than one would have expected. And if the market as a whole had been rising, that would have made it far worse for the others, but still good for Tesla. But we don't need hypothetical guesses when the data is out there. I just don't have it nor do I want to do a complex analysis.

From the numbers given, it's fair to say they decimated the competition, given the literal connotation of the competitors losing near 10% and in the figurative sense of their market being disrupted significantly.

green1 said:

Luckily that polling has already been done several times, I believe you lose.

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If you have actual cross-shop data, that would be useful to post.
The only thing I found was something from 2013 about Tesla cross shopping that only had other EVs, no mention of other cars. But the question there could have been limited to EV cars.

Without any actual, you know, data, it is just a guess about where Tesla sales came from.

What a surprise: these types of claims have been made and debunked before.
For instance:
No, Tesla Does Not Outsell the Mercedes S-Class in the U.S. or Globally - TheStreet

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Haggy said:

From the numbers given, it's fair to say they decimated the competition, given the literal connotation of the competitors losing near 10%

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No.
That is just spin, it isn't a fair statement.

Assuming that all of Tesla's sales came from people who were going to buy one of those cars listed, AND assuming that there were no changes in any of the competitors (changing to a new model year, focusing on other markets vs. U.S., etc) the fair statement is that Tesla's incremental gain was 10% of a market that consists of 9 different competitors.

Which is fine.
No need to hype it or spin it.

It is no secret that sedans are losing market share to SUVs and crossovers. Would be more fair to include luxury SUV and crossovers in this comparison.

Tesla is playing a role in growing the otherwise shrinking market for sedans. Furthermore, I speculate that being able to drive alone in carpool lanes in California plays no small role (approximately half of US Model S sales are in California).

Zaxxon said:

No, the market segment was not decimated. The overall sales of the other participants of said segment were. I get what you're saying, and didn't mean to offend--and certainly don't want to continue to derail the thread. Your point is well-taken: Tesla is doing a number on the other participants of the luxury segment, and that's cool.

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You are derailing the thread actually - calling someone out in front of other people for their misuse of a word is a faux pas. Nevertheless you are correct - she did misuse "decimate" in her sentence. She should have said "...decimates the competition" OR "...dominates the market."

Despite you being correct, I still find it cringe worthy that you bothered to be "that guy" and call her out for it. In the overall scheme of things she wins, you lose.

New S Class is a sexy car. Wouldn't buy it though. Don't like any of the cars on that list.

benf said:

I know everyone likes to compare the Model S to the 7-series and S-class, but I just don't really get it. The Model S starts at $70k ($60k with rebate). The 7-series starts at $81k. The S-class starts at $95k. The 7-series and S-class are considerably more luxurious than a Model S ... the comparison is simply not apples to apples.

On a side note, is there any data on the number of people who actually cross-shop the S-class and the Model S?

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Well I'm one point - I cross shop them. You're right that a $70K Model S isn't in competition but the more typically equipped $95K Model S is.

The Model S is MORE luxurious than the S Class because the ultimate luxury is a silent, vibration free car which steers itself down the highway.

The fancy interior of the S Class is in a different league than the Model S true - but its importance in overall luxury is far out-gunned by Tesla's ability to essentially drive itself. Mercedes' current autopilot is a pale shadow of the Tesla's ability.

If there were today an S Class which had an autopilot in the same league as Tesla's and which also sipped electricity I would probably buy it. My prior car is an E55 AMG and were it not for the Model S my next would likely be an S Class as I'd like a quiet luxo-barge for cruising long distances.

Tesla has the market for the ultimately relaxing quiet luxo barge all to itself right now. Until Mercedes builds a hands-off autopilot (which admittedly may come soon) - and then the game may shift again, at least for this buyer.

Drivin said:

What a surprise: these types of claims have been made and debunked before.
For instance:
No, Tesla Does Not Outsell the Mercedes S-Class in the U.S. or Globally - TheStreet

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That article (written by an investor who was short on TSLA) is about 2014 sales, when the S Class got a 5 year cycle new model bump, and did sell better than the Model S. Tesla's claim at the time was they outsold them in 2013.

However, this thread is about 2015 sales, in which the S class has slowed, and the Model S sales have increased. In 2015, Tesla sold more Model S cars than Mercedes sold S class cars in the US.