The bet is on; $1M says the Model S will be on time

[ckessel]

Well, it seems they said in the IR presentations that it would be 5-star...

Tesla Motors - Current Report
http://content.edgar-online.com/edga...X99_1PG009.JPG

Right, but those were before the 2012 crash ratings. The first link is to a 2010 report. I have no idea when the image link was done, but presumably also well before the 2012 ratings. If you want to be pedantic, you could say it'll have 5-star ratings against pre-2012 standards.

In the call (or some interview shortly thereafter related to it, can't recall), Elon talked about it specifically saying they fell just short in the alpha model crash tests and they think with some tweaking they'll make the 2012 ratings across the board. There were some wiggle words about not going nuts on cost for it though.

[Iz]

Price was corrected.

(4) Model S prices must remain at the levels Tesla and Musk announced: $57,400 for the version with 160 miles of range, $67,400 for the 230-mile version, and $77,400 (was $87,400, corrected) for the top-of-the-line 300-mile version (which will comprise the bulk of early production). All prices are before any Federal or other incentives.

[JRod0802]

... No car has, yet, passed the 2012 ratings with 5-stars across the board. ...

Hasn't the 2012 Kia Optima?

2012 Kia Optima 4 DR FWD | Safercar -- NHTSA

Or am I missing something?

Edit:
Upon further inspection, it seems that each category is subdivided into a few different tests. The side crash rating was given a 5-star over all, but not every specific test was given 5-star, so I guess the Optima didn't get a 5-star rating in every test.

I double checked the entire US database, and no 2012 car has 5 stars across the board (yet).

[TEG]

Hasn't the 2012 Kia Optima?

2012 Kia Optima 4 DR FWD | Safercar -- NHTSA


Or am I missing something?

Kia sure has come up in the world if they are leaders in safety now.

[Norbert]

If the alphas almost got to the 5 star rating on all counts, then they probably have 4 stars as the lowest count. Although achieving top safety, with a 5 star rating, is surely more important than winning the bet, I guess in regard to that, the only open question (except for surprises) might be manufacturing.

I think the article (and the bet itself) shows that there is still a lot of skepticism about the Model S (and the near-future feasibility of long-range EVs in general).

[TEG]

Edit:
Upon further inspection, it seems that each category is subdivided into a few different tests. The side crash rating was given a 5-star over all, but not every specific test was given 5-star, so I guess the Optima didn't get a 5-star rating in every test.

I double checked the entire US database, and no 2012 car has 5 stars across the board (yet).

Getting a 5-star overall is impressive.
Getting a (blended) 5-star on those different categories is even more impressive.
Getting a 5-star on every single test might be nearly impossible.
(But if Tesla aims to make the Model S "The safest car on the road...")

[Larry Chanin]

I wouldn't be too surprised if (a) Elon wins the bet and (b) he makes the donation anyway. It would be a delicious PR coup, and let's face it, lots of Tesla customers are doctors. Wouldn't want to disappoint them...

Hi,

It looks like Elon is willing to make the donation, but it doesn't appear to be a bet anymore.

Charity will be big winner of Tesla bet

"I'm still game if Elon is," said Neil, a former Los Angeles Times car critic who in 2004 won the Pulitzer Prize for criticism for his automobile reviews.

It turns out that Musk is, but with a slight change. "I will put the car out and give $1 million to Doctors Without Borders," Musk told The Times. "I don't really need a bet to give money away. I have a foundation that gives away money every year. I think Doctors Without Borders is a good cause, so sure, I will do this. Dan should chip in $1,000 too."

Larry

[doug]

It looks like Elon is willing to make the donation, but it doesn't appear to be a bet anymore.

The obvious outcome was always that Elon would give the money regardless. Certainly takes the air out of it, though.

[AnOutsider]

The obvious outcome was always that Elon would give the money regardless. Certainly takes the air out of it, though.

Yeah, I wonder if that means they foresee not meeting one of the criteria.

[tdelta1000]

Any updates on this friendly wager?