How much of a deposit do you think will be required?

McHoffa · Jan 12, 2016

The Model X requires $5k. I wasn't watching all that closely at the time of the S unveiling, but I assume it was the same? Do you think the 3 will also be $5k or since it's a much lower cost car do you think it will be half that?

I'm ready to put down money on one, or maybe two. Most likely we'll end up getting one base model for around town, one P90DL equivalent (for me:biggrin

but it would be nice to know how much cash I'll have to lay out to make that happen at launch rather than waiting an extra year or two after launch to get it.

Saghost · Jan 12, 2016

McHoffa said:
The Model X requires $5k. I wasn't watching all that closely at the time of the S unveiling, but I assume it was the same? Do you think the 3 will also be $5k or since it's a much lower cost car do you think it will be half that?

I'm ready to put down money on one, or maybe two. Most likely we'll end up getting one base model for around town, one P90DL equivalent (for me:biggrin but it would be nice to know how much cash I'll have to lay out to make that happen at launch rather than waiting an extra year or two after launch to get it.

The $5k granted a production spot - cars that haven't started delivering yet, somewhere after a few thousand signature cars. I doubt the 3 Signature deposit will be $40k again, since the cars may not be much more than that, but I'll be surprised if they don't do a signature version, and surprised if you can get a signature for $5k.

With as much interest as they know they have for the Model 3, I think a $5k production reservation is perfectly reasonable, and will get plenty of people. Maybe $25k for Signature?
Walter

igotzzoom · Jan 12, 2016

I think $2,500 would be a reasonable price to reserve a car.

coco81 · Jan 12, 2016

I would not pay more than 2500€ to reserve a 40,000€ car... two years in advance.

larmor · Jan 12, 2016

coco81 said:
I would not pay more than 2500€ to reserve a 40,000€ car... two years in advance.

I wonder if TM will restrict the number of M3 reservations per person or per company/entity... just sayin'

omarsultan · Jan 12, 2016

My prediction is $2500 for a production, $20K for a sig.

McHoffa · Jan 13, 2016

omarsultan said:
My prediction is $2500 for a production, $20K for a sig.

That's what I'm hoping, especially if I end up doing two of them.

Max* · Jan 13, 2016

I vote $2,500 production and no signature model 3.

omarsultan · Jan 13, 2016

Max* said:
I vote $2,500 production and no signature model 3.

I think its a mistake to look at the M3 as a budget model. If you look at the BMW 3-series, it has a price range from ~$30K to ~$50K. While I do think Tesla will hit the $35K price point (RWD, small pack, no options) I would also expect them to have a fully loaded P70D model in the ~$60K range. Much as there is a market for BMW M3, I think there will be a market for a Sig M# for folks that want a loaded car and want to go to the head of the line.

Although, as I type that, I am talking myself out of my own argument. One of the snafus with the MX launch was that Tesla lost control of the message and left the general public thinking all MXs cost $130K. Seeing as how the M3 is supposed to be the EV for the masses, I do not think its going to play well in the media for the first deliveries being ~$60K cars going to 1%ers. So...perhaps you are right, no Sig.

Max* · Jan 13, 2016

omarsultan said:
I think its a mistake to look at the M3 as a budget model. If you look at the BMW 3-series, it has a price range from ~$30K to ~$50K. While I do think Tesla will hit the $35K price point (RWD, small pack, no options) I would also expect them to have a fully loaded P70D model in the ~$60K range. Much as there is a market for BMW M3, I think there will be a market for a Sig M# for folks that want a loaded car and want to go to the head of the line.

Although, as I type that, I am talking myself out of my own argument. One of the snafus with the MX launch was that Tesla lost control of the message and left the general public thinking all MXs cost $130K. Seeing as how the M3 is supposed to be the EV for the masses, I do not think its going to play well in the media for the first deliveries being ~$60K cars going to 1%ers. So...perhaps you are right, no Sig.

I'm not looking at the Model 3 as a budget car at all. What I am looking at is the negative PR Tesla will get if they release a signature Model 3.

From day 1 Tesla has been saying $35k base Model 3. (as you pointed out in your 2nd paragraph) The negative PR Tesla got with the Sig Model X's -- Look Tesla promised an SUV that's going to be $5k more expensive than a Model S, yet it costs $140k! It's easy clickbait, and most people wont follow up on it.

In addition, if sig's come out first (requiring either $20k or $40k deposits), those are the people who will get the $7,500 federal tax credit. The Model 3 is aimed as a "mass market car", imagine when it hits the mass market and the federal credit dries up (yeah, yeah, it phases out over several quarters) and imagine the bad PR from that "Rich Tesla buyers purchase mass market cars to get $7,500 federal rebate leaving the masses stuck paying more"

I stand by my opinion. No signature Model 3, not because it's a budget model (and I agree with you, I'm sure there'll be a $60k-$70k fully loaded Model 3), but because of the potential backlash of negative PR a signature model may lead to.

S3XY · Jan 13, 2016

Max* said:
I'm not looking at the Model 3 as a budget car at all. What I am looking at is the negative PR Tesla will get if they release a signature Model 3.

From day 1 Tesla has been saying $35k base Model 3. (as you pointed out in your 2nd paragraph) The negative PR Tesla got with the Sig Model X's -- Look Tesla promised an SUV that's going to be $5k more expensive than a Model S, yet it costs $140k! It's easy clickbait, and most people wont follow up on it.

In addition, if sig's come out first (requiring either $20k or $40k deposits), those are the people who will get the $7,500 federal tax credit. The Model 3 is aimed as a "mass market car", imagine when it hits the mass market and the federal credit dries up (yeah, yeah, it phases out over several quarters) and imagine the bad PR from that "Rich Tesla buyers purchase mass market cars to get $7,500 federal rebate leaving the masses stuck paying more"

I stand by my opinion. No signature Model 3, not because it's a budget model (and I agree with you, I'm sure there'll be a $60k-$70k fully loaded Model 3), but because of the potential backlash of negative PR a signature model may lead to.

So now we can logically extend this argument and question whether or not large battery pack and/or dual motor M3's will be the first off the line since those will bust the stated $35k pricing as well.

Muaddid · Jan 13, 2016

They could always do a signature model that is only available if you reserve within 2 months of the announcement, BUT with the caveat that it will not be produced ahead of people who reserved before you, so that on the day they deliver the first few cars, they can deliver a M3 signature alongside a not-so-pimped M3 and thus avoid the whole “Tesla is still only for the 1%ers”. It would mean producing less profitable cars faster, but as the goal is a more mass-market car, it could be worth it in terms of PR.

omarsultan · Jan 13, 2016

S3XY said:
So now we can logically extend this argument and question whether or not large battery pack and/or dual motor M3's will be the first off the line since those will bust the stated $35k pricing as well.

Not sure if battery size makes any difference since its a drop-in part and they last thing we need is a bunch of first-time EV owners getting stranded because they ran out of juice, but yes, I can see a RWD > AWD > Performance progression, to have the first deliveries be at the $35K end of things, but in an ideal world, I hope Tesla gets to the point where they can quickly ramp up the manufacturing complexity so its not a six month lag between RWD and perf models.

Max* · Jan 13, 2016

S3XY said:
So now we can logically extend this argument and question whether or not large battery pack and/or dual motor M3's will be the first off the line since those will bust the stated $35k pricing as well.

The battery pack needs to deliver 200 real world miles, and the car needs to start at $35k. Once the GF is up and running they wont be as constrained with battery packs as they are now, so I don't think they would be forced to sell the larger packs for a year before allowing the smaller packs to hit the mass market. I would hope it would be first come first serve (well 2-3 years later) and not what they're doing with the Model X now, where the smaller battery packs have to wait a year. But I don't know what to expect.

I don't see this one as black and white as I do the sigs reservations, now I've been wrong before and often enough, but I still don't think we'll be seeing sigs.

tga · Jan 13, 2016

If they don't do Sigs, I fully expect early deliveries to be skewed towards higher margin, more highly equipped orders. Even if 90% of day-one orders are for base configs, I expect only 10% of off day-one deliveries will be those base configs. It only makes economic sense to deliver the higher margin cars first.

They'll push out a few base configs early to minimize bad PR, but anyone who thinks their stripped-down no-option RWD car is going to be as high priority as an AWD, P90D equivalent is delusional.

Model 3 · Jan 16, 2016

tga said:
If they don't do Sigs, I fully expect early deliveries to be skewed towards higher margin, more highly equipped orders. Even if 90% of day-one orders are for base configs, I expect only 10% of off day-one deliveries will be those base configs. It only makes economic sense to deliver the higher margin cars first.

From my viewpoint it is that you can order the $35k version of Model 3 from day one when they open the design-studio on the Model 3, not that the $35k car will have to be the first of the line. But on the other hand, saying that you will not get delivery for 6/12 month if you order the smallest battery pack will also be a bad choice...

EVNow · Jan 16, 2016

$35k or bust. Musk has repeated $35k so often, they have little choice now.

There might be sig reservations - but I doubt it. Definitely the first ones you can order won't be $60k - but $35k.

eye.surgeon · Jan 16, 2016

Let's be real...many people shopping cars at the M3 price point wouldn't even make a $5,000 down payment at the time of purchase, let alone a $5,000 deposit 2 yrs in advance. I'd be surprised if the required deposit was more than $2000.

pmadflyer · Jan 16, 2016

1,500 usd. Wag

doubeld · Jan 18, 2016

All I hope is that the down payment is in the local currency as the USD is so high right now. Especially compared to the CAD, which will probably be bottoming out riiiight around the time of the Model 3 unveiling

How much of a deposit do you think will be required?

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