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Elon is always optimistic. The gigafactory will be up and running this year. It really comes down to building the Model 3 line and bringing all the vendors together. It will not be easy but there is more incentive now with the Bolt to be more on time.
jerjozwik
Active Member
^^ unless they start selling at a loss and wait till the factory is up before turning the [minor] profit on the car.
but more than likely they will be building the ultra high spec versions first, making crazy amounts of money off them like the P90D cars. in which case they could totally start before the gigafactory is up.
but more than likely they will be building the ultra high spec versions first, making crazy amounts of money off them like the P90D cars. in which case they could totally start before the gigafactory is up.
strider
Active Member
And there's still no way they will ship in 2017. Model X was over 2 years late and the entire chassis was lifted straight from Model S. Model 3 is a whole new car with new materials. Even 2018 is a long shot for production at any kind of scale.
the Model 3 has been in the works for over 10 years. the design was done a long time ago. now it is little tweaks here & there to make it look cooler, save weight, increase efficiency, add functionality, and streamline
the first cars to come of the line will use gigafactory format cells made in japan. the first gigafactory format line is already running in japan. after they finish tweaking the production flow the line will simply be replicated in Japan and then replicated at the gigafactory in nevada and then replicated at the gigafactories in germany and china. Initially the gigafactory will be doing battery assembly only. The batteries will be shipped on a train to Fremont (where they are already making Model 3's)
Model 3 packs are way simpler to build. They already have Model 3 packs on the back of flat bed trucks in the desert and in the arctic running worst case discharge and charge cycles using portable next gen superchargers. the goal is 20 year life. the most difficult part of a sealed pack design is accounting for humidity.
The smaller Model 3 pack design architecture will be carried over into the GEN2 X/S size packs. They should easily hit 120 kwh before 2020. GEN2 packs will retrofit into older cars.
the first cars to come of the line will use gigafactory format cells made in japan. the first gigafactory format line is already running in japan. after they finish tweaking the production flow the line will simply be replicated in Japan and then replicated at the gigafactory in nevada and then replicated at the gigafactories in germany and china. Initially the gigafactory will be doing battery assembly only. The batteries will be shipped on a train to Fremont (where they are already making Model 3's)
Model 3 packs are way simpler to build. They already have Model 3 packs on the back of flat bed trucks in the desert and in the arctic running worst case discharge and charge cycles using portable next gen superchargers. the goal is 20 year life. the most difficult part of a sealed pack design is accounting for humidity.
The smaller Model 3 pack design architecture will be carried over into the GEN2 X/S size packs. They should easily hit 120 kwh before 2020. GEN2 packs will retrofit into older cars.
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Vger
Active Member
The Model X chassis is extremely different structurally and functionally than Model S. Elon admits going overboard on Model X. I think Elon and all of them understand that the Model 3 has to come absolutely as fast as possible. He indicated that they had an internal debate about whether to make the car another adventurous radical car, or whether to be more conservative with Model 3 (at least with the first version), and just get it out there. He said they chose to go conservative.
So, while I do not think he is breaking news by restating end of 2017, I think it is what he really wants, and will try earnestly to hit it. I think we will all have totally different sense of it all when the reveal comes in a matter of weeks.
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Those are some pretty intriguing and radical claims. Care to share, even obliquely, why you think you have intel of that nature?
This forum has discounted such info at its significant peril before, so I am not doing that. But I have not seen anything to corroborate what you say, @fflathillll.
GasKilla
No Gas Know Peace
Other than hand built cars (they need one for the reveal in March) please explain how they are "already making Model 3s" in Fremont? Doesn't seem likely they'd already fire up an assembly line for a car they have yet to reveal.
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
There is absolutely no way they are clear of the Model X fire (yes, every release of a product like the Model X is one huge all hands on deck fire) sufficiently to think about tooling up for Model 3. Remember the leak trail that led up to Model X? All the talk of lines, tooling, vendors and all went on for a very long time before the first cars appeared. We are not hearing any of that for Model 3.
The ongoing attempts to get Model X deweeded combined with the radio silence on Model 3 production details tells me 2017 is Elon time and has no bearing the atomic clock.
The ongoing attempts to get Model X deweeded combined with the radio silence on Model 3 production details tells me 2017 is Elon time and has no bearing the atomic clock.
strider
Active Member
Uh, yeah, ok. That statement is just straight-up wrong and so calls into question everything else in your post. You don't even know Tesla's public history so how could you know details that would be closely guarded?
Yep, it's all speculation at this point. But I'm just basing my statements on history and that history is simply not on the side of those saying Model 3 will be on time. The Roadster was way late, the Model S was way late, and the Model X was way late. While Elon may say they went overboard on Model X that doesn't mean he's learned from it. From the doorsill redesign on the Roadster to the motorized doors and seats on the Model X, Elon wants the car his way and that's the way it will be, schedule be damned. Personally I'd rather wait another year and have a much nicer car - I'm content to drive my Roadster until then.
I disagree. Tesla said cell production at the Gigafactory will start this year and it will be for Model S and X.
Quote (Tesla Motors): "Gigafactory ... first cells expected to be produced in 2016 for use in Model S and Model X."
Source: SEC report page 26
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lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
If the Chevy Bolt comes at the end of 2016 (as advertised) and the Model 3 only starts production late 2017, Tesla is one year behind. That's significant. Given Tesla's track record of not keeping deliver date promises, it might be even worse. Who is winning? The end user and the environment!
Trev Page
Member
If we start seeing reports of Tesla tooling up the factory this year then we can assume the car is indeed about a year away from production. They retooled the factory in November 2014 for Model X production and Model S production increase so I think that's a good metric to follow.
Model X was indeed very very late but that car got caught up in the quagmire of production ramp up for Model S and was put on the back burner. Tesla had more important things to deal with that get Model X ready for production so it wasn't a priority for them.
Model 3 is their raison dêtre so focus is on that now. Based on comments Elon made in 2013, Model 3 design is about a year behind their original schedule ( he said they expected clay model by mid 2014 and prototype in spring 2015).
Provided they don't get carried away and keep it simple to build and the Gugafactory does indeed start early production by this year they have a chance to meet their late 2017 production date. My current lease expires in April 2018 so I'm giving them an extra 6 months. If it's later then so be it, I have another to drive in the meantime.
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Wrong. Bluestar development started in parallel with whitestar (which turned out to be a waste of time component sharing wise) but the overall concept has been a 10+ year labor of love
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Why would you disagree. I am not talking about production Model 3s using Japanese cells. They are already building Model 3's which use cells built in Japan. The gigafactory is already being used to build grid packs and will soon be used to build Model 3 packs.
Plans changed with the sucess of Tesla Energy. They will no longer be making 18650s at the gigafactory for GEN1 X/S packs. The gigafactory cell is 21700 (extra 3mm still fits in GEN1 pack)
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Trev Page
Member
Video was done in the Hawthorne design studio. Wouldn't we all just love to peek over the walled partition huh? 
They will start taking pre-order long before production starts. While technically the first few cars cost more to build I don't anticipate the first production run being at a loss in total.
I've long felt that if the Model 3 launches in 2017, it will be similar to the Q3 2015 launch of the Model X. That is, just a handful of cars delivered to VIP's. The true ramp up, with cars getting into customer's hands in significant numbers won't happen until well into 2018.
My guess is that Elon specifically, and Tesla as a whole, want to launch in 2017, but I don't think they'll make it. I'm guessing Q2 or Q3 of 2018 for the launch, with ramp up happening in Q4. Either way, 2018 will be sold out before the launch.
I don't say this with any inside information or expertise, just as my perspective as an outsider watching what's happening.
My guess is that Elon specifically, and Tesla as a whole, want to launch in 2017, but I don't think they'll make it. I'm guessing Q2 or Q3 of 2018 for the launch, with ramp up happening in Q4. Either way, 2018 will be sold out before the launch.
I don't say this with any inside information or expertise, just as my perspective as an outsider watching what's happening.
Camera-Cruiser
Fully Charged
I like everyone else am eagerly waiting for the Model 3's debut. That said, I think the mission of the 3 is different, and if Tesla is smart, that there should be no such thing as a "Signature" model. It is the antithesis of what the car is supposed to be. I don't think you should be able to click all the buttons when ordering and break $50K.
Just some thoughts.
Just some thoughts.
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