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FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
They barely made the low end of their revised 50,000 car forecast for 2015. Let's hope they can really ramp up Model X production in 2016.
What they did is nothing short of amazing: the jump in (almost entirely) Model S deliveries, which is clearly visible in the graph, is a huge accomplishment. I think it would have been worse if 25% or 30% of those 17,400 cars had been Model X.
Always interesting how "journalist" chose to present data. They easily could have said: "Tesla increased its deliveries an amazing 47% over the 3rd Quarter. The strong deliveries and demand of Model S Sedan in the 4th quarter continued which made up 98% of the delivery increase over 3rd quarter. Tesla delivered 208 Model X SUV's in the quarter with strong demand indicated by order backlog that is 6-8 months deep. Another 300 Signature Model X's are completed, and on their way to Signature series owners in the 1st Quarter of 2016."
All in how they choose to deliver the message..... discount the 48% delivery increase in favor of "barely made" its guidance. Any one wonder why Exec's hate to talk to the "press".
All in how they choose to deliver the message..... discount the 48% delivery increase in favor of "barely made" its guidance. Any one wonder why Exec's hate to talk to the "press".
1101011
Proud TSLA/SCTY shareholder since 2013.
PGeer
Member
Another thing not mentioned is the delivery of the 100000th Model S. I get a total of 107k now after the Q4 2015 results so the 100000th Model S came in November possibly. I think this is a great milestone and cements Tesla as a mainstream manufacturer.
Some perspective... Porsche delivered 190k cars in 2014.
Tesla needs to match something like that to be taken seriously.
At least 200k cars / yr and US$ 20 billion in yearly sales.
I do however think its just a matter of 3-4 years to get there...
Tesla is still burning cash. For me the most important number from Q4 2015 and full year 2015 results is hopefully cash bleed per car dropping. And looking forward for 2016 is total cash bleed reducing while increasing production at least 40%.
The other way to think about it is Tesla becoming self sustaining financially. I have zero issue with Tesla bleeding cash in 2015 and 2016. But for 2017 that needs to be at least break even.
Hopefully Tesla Energy will help that too.
The Model S and Model X are the best cars in their class.
Now Tesla financials must prove pure EV car companies are a viable economic model. I already believe it is, but need to convince others.
There are plenty of potential Tesla buyers that are too conservative to buy from a company they keep hearing will go broke soon.
I also think Tesla should do a one off paid ad campaign in USA states with anti Tesla prohibitions to convince voters to remove anti Tesla legislators from office. Something fairly big, like US$ 50 million in ads (1% of revenues). In time for the 2016 elections.
Tesla needs to match something like that to be taken seriously.
At least 200k cars / yr and US$ 20 billion in yearly sales.
I do however think its just a matter of 3-4 years to get there...
Tesla is still burning cash. For me the most important number from Q4 2015 and full year 2015 results is hopefully cash bleed per car dropping. And looking forward for 2016 is total cash bleed reducing while increasing production at least 40%.
The other way to think about it is Tesla becoming self sustaining financially. I have zero issue with Tesla bleeding cash in 2015 and 2016. But for 2017 that needs to be at least break even.
Hopefully Tesla Energy will help that too.
The Model S and Model X are the best cars in their class.
Now Tesla financials must prove pure EV car companies are a viable economic model. I already believe it is, but need to convince others.
There are plenty of potential Tesla buyers that are too conservative to buy from a company they keep hearing will go broke soon.
I also think Tesla should do a one off paid ad campaign in USA states with anti Tesla prohibitions to convince voters to remove anti Tesla legislators from office. Something fairly big, like US$ 50 million in ads (1% of revenues). In time for the 2016 elections.
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JohnSnowNW
Active Member
Tesla is only the 2nd post-WWII independent Am. automotive manufacturer to sell over 100,000 vehicles, and the only one to do so entirely with BEVs.
That's enough of an accomplishment to be taken seriously.
There are several ways to look at numbers.
We're already in the Tesla believer camp, so our natural predisposition is to take anything new as reinforcement in what we already believe in. It's called confirmation BIAS.
Tesla will be taken seriously when the anti Tesla camp is mostly silenced.
100,000 cars delivered is a pittance compared even to the worldwide fleet roadworthy of cars that costed at least US$ 70k when new.
I'm trying really hard to think outside of my own confirmation bias. Its hard to do... Very hard...
So I sustain... 200k cars / yr delivered. Or one million total cars delivered. I think the former will happen much sooner.
There are 2 billion cars in circulation around the world. 2 million cars is just 0.1% of that.
Tesla's mission is to accelerate migration from ICE to BEV for the entire car fleet.
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
A more positive spin from Tesla ... http://insideevs.com/tesla-delivers-17400-evs-q4-50000-sold-2015/
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Krugerrand
Meow
Disagree and would say Tesla is already being taken seriously considering such things as:
GM copying the Model 3 specs and rushing the Bolt to market in hopes of claiming first to market in that market segment.
BMW, Mercedes, Porsche et al announcing plans for several BEVs of their own.
Nissan and BMW?/GM?/can't recall who it was partnering for their own 'fast' (though not as fast and far more limited than Tesla's) charging network.
The many 'Tesla killer' articles that continue to come in ever larger quantities.
The likes of Faraday and Atieva working on BEVS (and particularly in Faraday's case - copying the essence and feel of Tesla (of course there are ex-Tesla employees there).
The continued battle between longs and shorts, and all that that entails.
If Tesla wasn't being taken seriously, nobody would be paying attention. Not only are they paying attention, but they're also doing everything in their power to make Tesla seem irrelevant/small/unimportant. So much so we can say 'thou doth protest too much'.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Tesla is already being taken seriously by the major automakers and the media. The automakers try to marginalize any influence by Tesla publicly but it is very obvious they do feel a need to respond.
The anti-Tesla camp will never be silenced no matter what Tesla does. A lot of the same naysayers dismissed Tesla as a small company that just makes converted Lotus sports cars. Then after the Model S came out they simply moved the goal posts. I don't think Tesla needs any arbitrary volume target for legitimacy. The naysayers will just keep moving the goal posts (by the time they hit 200k/year I'm willing to bet the goal post will move to 1 million / year like the smaller makes).
What they have accomplished with the Model S is recognized by the general public already. Only the most die-hard anti-Tesla people will refuse to admit what an accomplishment the Model S is. The main criticism of it by the general public is the price (not the volume). Model 3 will change that.
Tesla gets paid for deliveries - its an important number. As forecast deliveries is the number provided for investor guidance, actual deliveries compared to guidance is the metric the media will comment on. The company has a deep order book and customers around the world. Some vehicles likely take months to deliver to customers. Tesla should also report the number of cars that made it out the factory door each quarter as it is a better guide to future growth. The Q4 2015 figure of 17,400 deliveries is an average of 1340 vehicles a week. Were 1600 vehicles per week making it out the factory door into the factory yard to await delivery in the lead up to Christmas???
Ummm...that is correct about the BEV part, but have you forgotten Kaiser-Frazer (later Kaiser-Willys) which sold about 730,000 cars from their main plant in Willow Run, Michigan, but also from their other plants in Leaside, Ontario; Portland, OR; Long Beach, CA; Haifa, Israel; Rotterdam, Holland; Japan etc? Years of operation 1946-1955 in North America --as far as making Frazer, Kaiser, and Willys Aero cars, although they kept producing Jeeps until the sale of Jeep to AMC in 1970. They continued to produce cars overseas in places like Brazil (via Willys do Brasil--the Willys Aero) and Argentina (via IKA, Industrias Kaiser Argent.--the Kaiser Carabela which was the former 54-55 Kaiser Manhattan, sans supercharger etc). What Henry J Kaiser and Joseph Frazer did was completely amazing at that time, and a small look into this forgotten company has a wealth of details, especially the first fiberglas sports car sold to the public (yes, the Darrin KF 161 beat Corvette), their revolutionary safety features and colour and fabric schemes were way ahead--too far ahead. A 53-55 Kaiser Dragon or supercharged Manhattan is still a decent car to drive today...for an ICE. If they had only continued the development of their OHV 288 V8, instead of throwing money down the mousehole with the small cars Henry J and Allstate, they might be around today.
Kaiser-Frazer - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia has about 1/1000th of 1% of this very unusual story. I have had 3 of the 730,000+, a 49 K Special, a 53 K Manhattan, and a 53 Willys Aero Eagle.
Lets just say that Tesla is the first volume American car manufacturer to start up since Walter Chrysler in the 20s.... that is currently operating, and producing cars that are also amazing and world leading.
Runarbt
Active Member
Some more perspective, Porsche produced way less than this the past 13 years.
2002 - 55k cars (were they not taken seriously then?)
2003 - 73k cars
2004-2010 - 80-100k
2011 - 127k cars
2012 - 151k cars
2013 - 165k cars
source: Porsche - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
JohnSnowNW
Active Member
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