OPEC bashes prospects for electric cars

I'm sure there's no possible reason for OPEC to be producing a report that says this. Nope, no reason at all.

That's a lot of carbon just waiting to be spewed into the atmosphere. I don't think our oceans and atmosphere can handle it. If those numbers are correct, planet Earth is doomed.

On the bright side, I disagree with their prediction. Electric cars are better than their oil-burning counterparts and once EVs become cheaper, they will crush gasoline.

Also, the article doesn't mention anything about potential carbon taxes.

Nothing new. They did the same the past years. Fun fact: They believe HFCV will do even worse.

The source, not mentioned in the article, is OPEC’s yearly World Oil Outlook.
2015:

2014:

zoom of 2015:



Direct link (4MB): http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/WOO%202015.pdf

LOL, an oil monopoly says EVs are bad? NOOOOOOOOO

EVs aren't better than gasoline because they don't use gas. They are better because of thousands of reasons! Oil is just ONE of those.

ummm what would you expect from a petroleum cartel?

Sadly, I fear OPEC may be right about this. I can easily see everybody dragging their feet, companies waiting for a handout to switch to electric, consumers not caring because the gas is cheap, governments not able or wanting to do the hard thing. I'd love to be proven wrong because I prefer post-apocalyptic stories in the fictional work only, but we (as in, humans) don't have the best track record...

Cebe said:

Sadly, I fear OPEC may be right about this. I can easily see everybody dragging their feet, companies waiting for a handout to switch to electric, consumers not caring because the gas is cheap, governments not able or wanting to do the hard thing. I'd love to be proven wrong because I prefer post-apocalyptic stories in the fictional work only, but we (as in, humans) don't have the best track record...

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Fox News will help by making everyone too scared to go to the gas station.

I don't think electric cars are as affected by oil prices as people think. They are clearly better, safer, more convenient cars and the only thing holding them down is battery price and infrastructure (charging on road trips and charging in urban environments). Once you see EV prices come close to gas cars there will be mass adoption in fleet cars and suburban cars which will spawn a whole industry of infrastructure to support all these new cars.

The Tesla Model 3 will be the fist catalyst to bring in "regular" suburban people. By 2020 Tesla plans on selling 500k cars and the rest of the field will probably match that for about 1,000,000 electric cars a year. I know that's still a small percentage but that's also just 5 years away.

Cebe said:

Sadly, I fear OPEC may be right about this. I can easily see everybody dragging their feet, companies waiting for a handout to switch to electric, consumers not caring because the gas is cheap, governments not able or wanting to do the hard thing. I'd love to be proven wrong because I prefer post-apocalyptic stories in the fictional work only, but we (as in, humans) don't have the best track record...

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People don't have a good track record for making changes because they are environmentally friendly.
People do have an excellent track record of switching to something new if it is more convenient, more powerful, more spacious, etc.

These later reasons are the reasons people will switch to electric, not because it is the right thing to do.

Zythryn said:

People don't have a good track record for making changes because they are environmentally friendly.
People do have an excellent track record of switching to something new if it is more convenient, more powerful, more spacious, etc.

These later reasons are the reasons people will switch to electric, not because it is the right thing to do.

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You are correct with one major omission. Tax policy determines behavior as much as anything.

jerry33 said:

Fox News will help by making everyone too scared to go to the gas station.

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what bs will MSNBC/CNBC come up with? this fact might be new to some of you but all media is biased inaccurate and corrupt. everything you are offered by the media is molded to generate a pattern of thought, so regardless of the source I don't give the "news" much credence.

I spent many years trading oil and products and I learned long ago to ignore OPEC, they had only a minor influence in the world wide oil market. once russia, and norway/england along with many african and south american producers became major producers the arab bloc lost most of their clout

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eye.surgeon said:

You are correct with one major omission. Tax policy determines behavior as much as anything.

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you are correct, the entities that profit the most from consumption of petroleum products is governments.

kort677 said:

what bs will MSNBC/CNBC come up with? this fact might be new to some of you but all media is biased inaccurate and corrupt. everything you are offered by the media is molded to generate a pattern of thought, so regardless of the source I don't give the "news" much credence.

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Well... no one is perfect... but there is biased.... and then there is Faux News... who will tell almost any lie to support their narrative.

Here is my favorite example about government subsidies, in this case solar. After railing against solar subsidies the question comes up of why solar works in Germany. Well obviously the truth that Germany simply has a more successful subsidy program won't work... so they explain that Germany gets more sun... which could not be further from the truth.

Start with your conclusion... then make crap up to support it... that's the Fox News way.

Ktowntslafan said:

Excellent rebuttal in the Telegraph:

The oil cartel is living in a time-warp, seemingly unaware that global energy politics have changed forever

Opec faces a mortal threat from electric cars - Telegraph

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Seeing as the gigfactory is likely to reduce pack costs by 30-50% over the next half decade, I'm not sure where OPEC is getting this from...

OPEC says battery costs may fall by 30-50pc over the next quarter century but doubts that this will be enough to make much difference, due to "consumer resistance".

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OPEC bashing electric cars? This is my shocked face...

kort677 said:

ummm what would you expect from a petroleum cartel?

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Actually, it's just people.

We all want business as usual / more of the same / minimal change.

I feel an apocryphal anecdote coming on.

OPEC says oil based fuel will still be mainstream in 25 years!

Have to take this with a grain of salt coming from oil induced OPEC!
Coming from OPEC, what do you expect?
They are out of touch with reality if you ask me and I think the exact opposite will happen in 25 years!

Warning: If you are a supporter of Tesla, electric cars and alternative-energy vehicles, this report will upset you.

OPEC is predicting that 94% of cars on the road will still be powered by oil-based fuels in 2040.





"Without a technology breakthrough, battery electric vehicles are not expected to gain significant market share in the foreseeable future," the organization said in its annual World Oil Outlook.
The group predicts battery-powered electric cars will capture just 1% of global vehicle sales by 2040.
OPEC says there will be little demand for other alternative-energy vehicles powered by hydrogen fuel and natural gas due to high costs and a lack of refueling stations.
OPEC -- a group of major oil producing nations -- depends on oil-guzzling industries like the transportation sector to make money, so it isn't surprising that it's not cheering the advancement of alternative-energy cars.
OPEC counts hybrid electric cars as oil-powered, because most of them run on gasoline. It says hybrids will capture 14% market share by 2040.

Tesla makes handsfree driving a reality



While electric cars are gaining in popularity, they still make up a very small sliver of overall global sales.
In the U.S., electric vehicles and hybrids are forecast to capture just 3.3% of overall car sales this year, according to data from market intelligence firm LMC Automotive.
And in Western European nations, sales of electric, hybrid and alternative energy vehicles have gained market share, but still represent about 4.4% of total car sales, according to LMC Automotive.
The OPEC report predicts that even as passenger cars become more fuel efficient and hybrid sales increase significantly, cars will still consume more oil as the share of vehicles on the roads more than doubles over the next 25 years.
The organization predicts cars and trucks will consume about 17% more oil in 2040 compared to today as fuel demand from new customers in China and India shoots up.
The OPEC report says that over 40% of global oil demand comes from road vehicles. That's not expected to change over the next 25 years.
Related: Gas falls below $2 a gallon
Related: New taxes threaten Tesla sales in key European markets
Related: These roads will charge cars are they drive


CNNMoney (London) First published December 23, 2015: 5:00 AM ET

Of course they will say that. It is in their best interest.