What does 35K get me?

Model3G said:

My question is what does anyone speculate comes with the BASE Model III? I think it's important to remember that the base model will be $35K and we can only expect to pay extra for things like auto-steering or traffic controlled cruise control; if they're an option for the III. All that being said, what do you think comes in that "basic" Model III?
Battery size/estimated useable miles?
Does the $35K get me the sedan or crossover?
Any thoughts on BASE model's deposit amount?

I want to plug the minds of you experts and see what you think.

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You have to think in terms of the lowest expectation. Elon Musk has said it will get at least 200 usable miles. Many have speculated what size battery pack that means, the expert consensus is around 45-50KWH. It will probably have range roughly around what you get from a Model S 60 KWH. It will almost certainly be the sedan, not the crossover. The crossover will cost more, they always do.

It will have some form of touchscreen because that's part of the Tesla brand and a lot cheaper than loading up the driver's area with buttons. It may or may not have a 4G connection, but it will have some way to update wireless. Possibly by connecting to the wireless internet at your home or office. It will have cloth seats and probably the interior features you get in the basic Model S. It will likely be called a sedan, but like the Model S, it will really be a hatchback. The wheels will probably be around 17 inches.

The base model will probably be rear wheel drive with 250-300 hp. Supercharging may not be included in the base price, but can be enabled later for an extra fee. It depends on Tesla's marketing plan for the superchargers. If they are going to pitch it's included in every car, then it will be in there for the base price.

It will have a lot more steel in the construction, and will probably look like many other compact to midsize sedans out there. The Model 3 will win only if it converts over ICE drivers. The eco and incentive (car pool lane driving, other perks) buyers are too small a pool to try to plumb forever. Tesla's goal is to make BEVs mainstream and to do that they need to make the initial Model 3 look conventional. Most EVs out there are weirdmobiles that turn off most car buyers. They are sold to the pariah club willing to give up something, including their dignity to drive an eco car. Many wear it as a badge of honor. (Most non-Tesla EV drivers I know in this area are proud of driving a weirdmobile because they like the world seeing their eco warrior spirit, it's Portlandia what can I say.)

It will have good performance, but don't expect 2.8s 0-60 from the base model. Probably somewhere around 4-5s 0-60 mph.

Anyway, that's my prediction of what you'll get for $35K. Many will criticize it for being spartan compared to other $35K cars, but you're paying a premium for the large battery pack and possibly the supercharger access. Electric cars are going to remain more expensive than ICE counterparts for a while yet. It will probably be 5 years or so until prices for batteries get down to being competitive with ICE cars. The Model 3 is a step in that direction rather than the achievement of that goal. Expect features you would find on a $25K ICE car.

On the performance front, I think we're being too optimistic. I'm leaning towards 200hp maximum and 0-60 mph in 6.0-6.5 sec and the promise of 200 miles of range. Supercharging will be extra for sure. I don't think it will have any aluminum, maybe just a few critical parts. 4G or LTE will be extra with your own contract but it'll have wifi for updates. I would like the Model 3 to be innovative without looking weird, difficult balance.

I'm also running some numbers and planning ahead my savings to get some "must-have" options like supercharging and good paint. Those only will put the car easily at $38-39k. Add more battery and it will like get the car to $45k. No more fancy trips on holidays until I get those extra $10K .

Yeah, no way the base model will have the performance numbers of the S85. It will be slower.

Car will definitely have a 17" and LTE for telemetry but browser and music streaming will likely cost extra.

SpC will either be subscription for the base model or added on for free with larger packs.

My guess:
50kWh battery - 220miles
Drag coefficient 0.21
Motor: 280hp
0-60mph - 5s
15" touch screen

Model3G said:

if they're an option for the III ...

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Yes, it will be an option on the TM3. When Elon started talking about autopilot he said the Gen-III would have it. That they already could introduce it on the Gen-II platform was a pleasant surprise.

Model3G said:

Battery size/estimated useable miles?

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Elon have said it would be at least 200 miles of realistic range. Later (under the introduction of the 70D?) he have been record to say that to get 200 miles of realistic range you need 240 miles of EPA range.

240 miles EPA range is perhaps a bit too much to hope for, but I'm sure it will be in the 220 to 240 miles EPA range. Or about 400km NEDC.

The exact size of the battery is in my opinion of less interest, but it will probably be in the range of 50-60kWh. And with an option to "go bigger"...

And supercharger? Yes, it WILL have access to the superchargers. But if it is included or a paid for option is an open question...

Model3G said:

Does the $35K get me the sedan or crossover?

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A "sedan" for sure. Gen-III is promised to get out with at least two models, a "sedan" and a Crossover/SUV. The Model 3 is the "sedan", just like the Model S is the "sedan" in Gen-II. And read "sedan" as lift-back/hatchback... (just like the TMS).

Model3G said:

Any thoughts on BASE model's deposit amount?

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This is the most difficult question to answer My gut feeling says "half of what it was for the Model S before start of production" (anyone remember what that was?).

I would say the base Model 3 ought to compete with the BMW 320i.
Build Your Own


That's ~$36k base, 0-60 in 7.1 seconds, 180 hp.

I think Tesla will position the base model between the 320i and 328i, with a 0-60 time around the same as the 70kWh, 5.5 seconds or thereabouts, and at least 200 hp which would actually beat the BMW. The cool thing about electric motors is it doesn't take much to make them peaky. There's not much additional cost for Tesla to make the car 200-250hp, but it will make it much more attractive.

Guesses:
- Mostly steel body (suspension and battery tray aluminium)
- Won't include free music packages & no in car internet (or optional internet package)
- Supercharging will be free but limited number of charges per year
- Will have a touchscreen around 14.2" or 15.6" (using commodity laptop LCDs, 1366x768 or so)
- Base model 45-55kWh battery for 205 miles EPA, high end model 70kWh battery giving about 250 miles EPA
- There will be a performance model offering 0-60 times around that of the M3 (~3.9s)

Model3G said:

My question is what does anyone speculate comes with the BASE Model III? I think it's important to remember that the base model will be $35K and we can only expect to pay extra for things like auto-steering or traffic controlled cruise control; if they're an option for the III. All that being said, what do you think comes in that "basic" Model III?
Battery size/estimated useable miles?
Does the $35K get me the sedan or crossover?
Any thoughts on BASE model's deposit amount?

I want to plug the minds of you experts and see what you think.

Click to expand...

Here are some of the most valuable things that the Model 3 will include...

1. Practically zero maintenance (except tires). No oil changes, no belts, no filters, no plugs.

2. Brake pads and rotors that last over 100K miles, thanks to Tesla's regenerative braking system.

3. 75% savings in fuel cost. When I got my Model S, my electric bill went up $50/month, while my gasoline bills went down more than $200/month.

4. Not having to stand in the rain or cold next to a gas pump. In fact, not having to stop to refuel at all (except for long trips) because all of your daily charging will be done at home while you're sleeping.

5. The ability to put a smile on your face every time you drive it. I never cease to be amazed at the elegant way the Tesla drivetrain delivers torque to the road, even under extreme acceleration. And this is coming from a former Ferrari owner.

Model3G said:

My question is what does anyone speculate comes with the BASE Model III?

I want to plug the minds of you experts and see what you think.

Click to expand...

I think the only thing we can say with good certainty is that 35k will buy you a long wait.

Tesla ships the high-priced and performance versions of its cars first. Look at Model X reservation holders: those who didn't want the "Performance" powertrain have to wait longer, and those who want the base 7D are at the end of the line

tom66 said:

I would say the base Model 3 ought to compete with the BMW 320i.
Build Your Own


That's ~$36k base, 0-60 in 7.1 seconds, 180 hp. (~3.9s)

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That is AWD 320ix

Base RWD 320i is $33,150 plus $995 shipping/destination fee.

http://www.bmwusa.com/Standard/Content/BYO/ByoHome.aspx?namodelcode=16TI


Per Elon base M3 will be RWD.




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Jerico said:

I don't think it will have any aluminum, maybe just a few critical parts.

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That makes zero sense. IF you are putting in steel then you would want critical parts to be steel.

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apacheguy said:

Yeah, no way the base model will have the performance numbers of the S85. It will be slower.

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A base 2018 M3 will definitely not have the performance and standard equipment of a 2018 Model S.

A base 2018 M3 might have equal or better performance and standard features than a 2015 Model S.

anticitizen13.7 said:

I think the only thing we can say with good certainty is that 35k will buy you a long wait.

Tesla ships the high-priced and performance versions of its cars first. Look at Model X reservation holders: those who didn't want the "Performance" powertrain have to wait longer, and those who want the base 7D are at the end of the line

Click to expand...

I'm not sure that will be the thing with the Model 3. Tesla's big pitch with this car is that it's the affordable model and to make good on that promise, they will have to ship the cheaper version from the start. The Model X was priced from the beginning as even more expensive than the Model S, so it's not surprising the cheaper model is coming out much later.

I'm going to guess that if you look at the base 2015 Model S, the RWD 70, and that's probably close to what you'll get in a base 2018 Model 3. Except no included Supercharging, and the battery and drive unit warranty may not be unlimited mileage. The battery will be smaller but give about the same EPA range.

As far as priority of delivery, I expect that high-spec versions will be delivered first so they can book the revenue as soon as possible. Nothing personal, just business.

Model III will be the BEST CAR $35k can buy

Everything said and done, Model III will be the BEST CAR $35k can buy. And while at that base price not all frills and thrills will be included, nothing that Elon has delivered ever leads me to believe even the base version will be an all around 'compromise' just to get into a BEV, unlike the Leafs and Volts (and whatever BMW or Volvo or MB come up between now and then)

ToddRLockwood said:

Here are some of the most valuable things that the Model 3 will include...

1. Practically zero maintenance (except tires). No oil changes, no belts, no filters, no plugs.

2. Brake pads and rotors that last over 100K miles, thanks to Tesla's regenerative braking system.

3. 75% savings in fuel cost. When I got my Model S, my electric bill went up $50/month, while my gasoline bills went down more than $200/month.

4. Not having to stand in the rain or cold next to a gas pump. In fact, not having to stop to refuel at all (except for long trips) because all of your daily charging will be done at home while you're sleeping.

5. The ability to put a smile on your face every time you drive it. I never cease to be amazed at the elegant way the Tesla drivetrain delivers torque to the road, even under extreme acceleration. And this is coming from a former Ferrari owner.

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But will it make espresso?

I would look at how Porsche configures the 911 vs Cayman/Boxster for pricing and performance. You don't want your lower models to eclipse performance on the higher models. Look at the Cayman S or New GTS and the base 911. The base 911 is a bit pricier than the highest model Cayman and the 911 out performs the Cayman on numbers and on the track. I don't expect the Model 3 to surpass the MS 70D (0-60 in 5.4s and 240 miles range) in performance numbers and range...it doesn't make sense econically for any vehicle manufacturer to cut into sales of the higher model vehicle. I hope I am wrong and with insane or ludicrous options being sub 5 and 4 seconds.

dmd2005 said:

I would look at how Porsche configures the 911 vs Cayman/Boxster for pricing and performance. You don't want your lower models to eclipse performance on the higher models. Look at the Cayman S or New GTS and the base 911. The base 911 is a bit pricier than the highest model Cayman and the 911 out performs the Cayman on numbers and on the track. I don't expect the Model 3 to surpass the MS 70D (0-60 in 5.4s and 240 miles range) in performance numbers and range...it doesn't make sense econically for any vehicle manufacturer to cut into sales of the higher model vehicle. I hope I am wrong and with insane or ludicrous options being sub 5 and 4 seconds.

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However, it has been Tesla's plan from the beginning to advance the adaption of EVs, and do so by first creating very expensive "toy" (I mean that in all sincerity in a good way, not negative) whose profits were spend on creating less-expensive-but-still-quite-expensive car and profits again to be used on developing even more affordable vehicle. As such, I could see Tesla from diverting from traditional business plan. That being said, I do think that you might be correct.

dmd2005 said:

I would look at how Porsche configures the 911 vs Cayman/Boxster for pricing and performance. You don't want your lower models to eclipse performance on the higher models. Look at the Cayman S or New GTS and the base 911. The base 911 is a bit pricier than the highest model Cayman and the 911 out performs the Cayman on numbers and on the track. I don't expect the Model 3 to surpass the MS 70D (0-60 in 5.4s and 240 miles range) in performance numbers and range...it doesn't make sense econically for any vehicle manufacturer to cut into sales of the higher model vehicle. I hope I am wrong and with insane or ludicrous options being sub 5 and 4 seconds.

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I wouldn't be surprised if the higher end Model 3 out performs the lower end Model Ss. They will be different cars aimed at different markets. The Model 3 will be smaller which leaves the Model S alone as the "big" car in the lineup. The top end of the Model 3 price range will probably be right around, or higher than the base price of the bottom end Model S. But a stripped Model S 70 RWD and a fully loaded Model 3 will be two different things. Even if the Model 3 P out performs the base Model S, that isn't a market killer. The base Model S buyer is not buying it for the performance, in many cases they are buying it for the price and they probably would go with a cheaper Model 3 if it meets their needs. The few people who buy a 70 will be people who want the full sized car.

They may have some other perks to keep the Model S exclusive like supercharger access might be limited on the Model 3 to a few times a year, or you need a subscription or something. I think the plan is to offer some free access, but it will probably be limited.

The Model S might get some new features that distinguish it as worth the extra money. On the other hand, Tesla might pass on the price savings on batteries to their customers and lower prices on the Model S and X. They will still cost more, but the price difference might not be as dramatic. The Model S and X top battery size will probably have longer range than the top range Model 3 which would be a selling point. There will always be more room for batteries in the Model S/X platform.

Tesla gets compared to brands like BMW and Mercedes because the Model S and X are in that price range, but the long term goal for Tesla is to be a mainstream car maker with a lineup like Toyota, Ford or GM. If you look at the price ranges for the various models offered by those makers, you will see price overlaps. The Ford Focus ranges from $17K to $35K, the Fusion from $22K to $36K, and the Taurus from $27K to $40K. The Fusion is the best selling car in their car lineup. The cars don't compete with one another that much because each is aimed at a different market niche.

Model 3 said:

Any thoughts on BASE model's deposit amount?

This is the most difficult question to answer My gut feeling says "half of what it was for the Model S before start of production" (anyone remember what that was?).

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The deposit was $40K sig, $5K production for the Model S. I hope it is half that for M3, but I wouldn't count on it. A sig 3 will likely cost >$70K

I will be surprised if the Model 3 doesn't feature the Tesla Trilogy:
• Industry-leading range
• Sub-six-second 0-100
• Automatic door handles

The above are a sort of trademark. So are the touchscreen and Supercharging, of course, but if I included those it wouldn't be a trilogy :smile:

Only time will will tell whose speculation is correct.

There will be a Signature version. How many will be the question. I expect a lot more than the Model S and Model X.

I definitely expect two versions of the battery pack and how much kWh in the big one is going to be interesting. I'd assume as much as they can mange to fit in the space available. The base level will be what everyone else has said: 45 to 55 kWh for a minimum of 200 realistic miles.

4 door sedan hatchback, like the Model S.

Acceleration better than a 2018 BMW 3 series base model. I'd guess less than 6 seconds 0-60. The instant torque will blow away most consumer's expectations for quickness.

No automatic door handles. Maybe on a loaded model.

I will guess that reservations are more than 200,000 by the time production begins. $5K for Sig and $1K or $2K for general production. It will benefit Tesla to have an enormous reservation number since they will likely need some more loans to cover infrastructure build out for the Model 3.