When will 100+ KWh battery become available?

My guess is 100kWh in 4 years. According to EM/TM, batteries improve by ~5%/year. Biggest single-step improvement will be when Tesla begins using the new form-factor batteries (18650?) probably in a year or two.

Just speculating but it seems like if Tesla was close to offering a 100 KWh battery, they would offer it with the X. Considering they just announced the 90 KWh battery for the Model S (based on development for the X) in July 2015, and that was only a 5 KWh bump from the 85 they announced with the S year ago, I'd guess you probably won't see a 100+ KWh option until early-2017 at the earliest.

Based on what Elon said: 2 years
Based on Tesla's actual track record: 9 years

Once the gigafactory is producing the new larger cell size format we should see a bump in density. Hopefully we'll see cell production start next year and make it battery packs in 2017.

I believe JB wanted at least 15-20% increase in density with the new cell format. That should easily provide a 100kw - 110kw pack size.

deonb said:

Based on what Elon said: 2 years
Based on Tesla's actual track record: 9 years

Click to expand...

I laughed. But I think 4-5 years is reasonable to expect.

2017 is my guess too.

shokunin said:

Once the gigafactory is producing the new larger cell size format we should see a bump in density. Hopefully we'll see cell production start next year and make it battery packs in 2017.

I believe JB wanted at least 15-20% increase in density with the new cell format. That should easily provide a 100kw - 110kw pack size.

Click to expand...

Actually JB Straubel expects about a 40% volumetric energy density improvement for the Gigafactory/Model 3 packs compared to the first Model S packs.
This is mainly due to a improvement in packaging efficiency with a bit of cell chemistry improvement (10-15%).
So I expect a bump in capacity once those cells become available for the Model S. 2017 at the earliest.

Source 1: Conference call

25:23 Journalist: On the Gigafactory, is the chemistry going to be the same battery chemistry that you're currently using or is that part of the discussions that are going on with Panasonic?
25:34 Elon Musk: There are improvements to the chemistry, as well as improvements to the geometry of the cell. So we would expect to see an energy density improvement and of course a significant cost improvement. JB, do you want to add anything?
25:53 JB Straubel: Yeah, that's right. The cathode and anode materials themselves are next generation. We're seeing improvements in the maybe 10% to 15% range on the chemistry itself.

Click to expand...

Elon Musk on Tesla’s F1-like service approach - Q2 2014 Earnings Call (7.31.14) AUDIO - YouTube

Source 2: SBS Seoul Digital Forum

8:54 JB Straubel: And when we're looking forward to the next generation, our third generation product, we expect they are going to move, again, by about 40%

Click to expand...

Tesla Reimagines the Century-old Power Grid - JB Straubel | SDF2015 - YouTube

ScepticMatt said:

Actually JB Straubel expects about a 40% volumetric energy density improvement for the Gigafactory/Model 3 packs compared to the first Model S packs.

Click to expand...

So that makes a 85kW = 119kW. I sure hope that comes true by 2017/18.

Packaging efficiency? Has anyone seen wk057 photos inside the pack housing? There's no improvement to be made there.

apacheguy said:

Packaging efficiency? Has anyone seen wk057 photos inside the pack housing? There's no improvement to be made there.

Click to expand...

I thinks that means the packaging of the actual cells themselves and that the format size will change to allow for more efficiency.

Canuck said:

So that makes a 85kW = 119kW. I sure hope that comes true by 2017/18.

Click to expand...

Careful with the units, you meant kWh. It's wrong in your signature too. My Chevy Volt had 119 kW

Given 90 came out 2H 2015, even at Elon's announced rate, we won't see 100kwh until late 2017, which means realistically it ll be 2019 before there will be 100kwh. That would be my estimate.

Canuck said:

So that makes a 85kW = 119kW. I sure hope that comes true by 2017/18.

Click to expand...

My guess is some of the density improvements will be used to reduce cost or improve margins instead.

Canuck said:

I thinks that means the packaging of the actual cells themselves and that the format size will change to allow for more efficiency.

Click to expand...

That would also be my guess as well.

My guess - 110kWh in 2016.

AnOutsider said:

Feels a bit too soon. Maybe early 2017 after the GF is pumping them out

Click to expand...

My guess as well.

I am a roadster driver since 2010.
Got my Model S 1 week ago to replace our family van as I was not able to wait for the Model X to be delivered to Switzerland. It is a Model S 85.
Don't ask why, but we need to move 5 persons, a dog and a cat on winter tyres in cold weather mainly on a highway. 380 Km without recharging. Our Model S was capable to do this only with reduced speed ( 120 Km/h would be allowed). We arrive with 1 % energy left. Makes my wife very nervous.
So my calculation is that for a Model X which we like to have because of the increased space, and which I guess should have a bit higher consumption then the S, we would need a 120 kW/h battery.
Not before 2018? Even later?

Off topic, but what if the model 3 starts with 60 kWh and 85 kWh options while the S and X have 90 kWh and 115 kWh? That would be insane for PR, but that would mean increasing cell output pretty radically compared to stated goals of 35 gWh for automotive yearly. I guess some things are just too good to be true.