2018 is a long ways away. Can I wait?

McHoffa · Nov 19, 2015

When I bought my current car in 2009 (Honda Fit) I decided it would be the last ICE car I'd buy. I'm currently planning on putting money down toward a fully loaded M3 in March (estimating $65K), but I honestly don't know if I'm prepared to wait an additional two years after that (or longer, realistically) to go electric. My other option would be to buy a MS 70D with only a couple options. If the M3's range is low, design too crazy, or features/performance just not up there with the S, it'll be an easy decision, but otherwise, I'll be torn on which to go with.

Anyone else in the same boat?

dalalsid · Nov 19, 2015

Waiting is a two word phrase - Leaf Lease

anticitizen13.7 · Nov 19, 2015

I bought a Honda Civic in 2010, so I'm in a similar boat.

However, I pretty much have no choice but to wait. The Model S is too big for my parking infrastructure, and it's too expensive. There are some mitigating factors: I drive relatively few miles per year. My car is paid off so I don't have to time a lease.

I could buy a Volt or a LEAF, but I want a car that is great, not just ok.

SabrToothSqrl · Nov 19, 2015

get a CPO 70 or 85D. or buy mine when I get an X

MiamiNole · Nov 19, 2015

McHoffa said:
When I bought my current car in 2009 (Honda Fit) I decided it would be the last ICE car I'd buy. I'm currently planning on putting money down toward a fully loaded M3 in March (estimating $65K), but I honestly don't know if I'm prepared to wait an additional two years after that (or longer, realistically) to go electric. My other option would be to buy a MS 70D with only a couple options. If the M3's range is low, design too crazy, or features/performance just not up there with the S, it'll be an easy decision, but otherwise, I'll be torn on which to go with.

Anyone else in the same boat?

If you don't mind me asking, why will it be hard to wait an additional two years for the Model 3? I also bought my current car (2010 Nissan Altima) in 2009, however, I'm more than willing to wait on the Model 3. My car payment has been done since 2014. Any repairs that my car would need could easily be paid for with the money that I would spend buying a newer car earlier. My previous car before that was 10 years old (2000 Mitsubishi Galant that I bought used at 3 years) before I decided to upgrade to the Altima. And the Galant lasted a few more years after I gave it to my little brother before its reliability started dropping. My rule of thumb was to only get a new car if it gets to the point where it is more costly to maintain my previous car than purchasing a new one. Of course personal satisfaction weighs into that. I wouldn't want to drive a clunker just because it can get me from point A to point B while being cheaper.

My point is, unless your car is no longer reliable to drive, why not just wait and save for what you REALLY want to get? Is it just an itch to get a new car?

green1 · Nov 19, 2015

SabrToothSqrl said:
get a CPO 70 or 85D. or buy mine when I get an X

I have to second that one,

I bought CPO (well, inventory actually but it was from the CPO site and it was a full year old with over 10,000km on it) and it was the way to go, I got a vehicle higher spec than I would ever have done myself, for 25% less than what I would have speced myself.
I'm also expecting the CPO inventory to expand as X deliveries ramp up (lots of people upgrading) so it should be easy enough to find something soon. For that matter, older MS are already probably less expensive than a fully loaded Model 3, and Tesla provides an excellent warranty on them.

Also, I know Tesla has talked about 2017 and 2018, but do yourself a favour and look at their history, I'm optimistically hoping that they'll make 2019, but I'm not holding my breath.

anticitizen13.7 · Nov 19, 2015

MiamiNole said:
If you don't mind me asking, why will it be hard to wait an additional two years for the Model 3? Is it just an itch to get a new car?

Speaking just for myself, it's not an itch to get a new car. My Civic has hydraulic power steering, a good old-fashioned 5-speed manual transmission, and no modern connectivity at all. I actually like it that way. It's a very pure driving experience. I get in my car, put my phone in "Do Not Disturb" mode, and drive away. The steering is quick but weighted and communicative. The chassis can lurch a bit during quick transitions turning from side to side on roads that change direction quickly, but managing that and the different gears is a skill that is actually a bit fun.

So why the itch to get a Model 3? I want to stop using gasoline and stop spending my dollars on a fuel that is causing problems for our civilization. I have already drastically reduced my driving through use of electrified public transport and walking. However, I live in an area where there are still places that cannot be reached except by automobile. Electrification of my vehicle is the last step in getting off of oil.

McHoffa · Nov 19, 2015

MiamiNole said:
If you don't mind me asking, why will it be hard to wait an additional two years for the Model 3?

...

Is it just an itch to get a new car?

Somewhat, but not exactly. If it were a matter of buying a new gas car, I'd just drive my Fit until the wheels were falling off.

I've had interest in EV for a long time, but since the very first Roadsters showed up, I've had an huge interest in Tesla. Since then, My income has increased while costs of EVs have decreased. I couldn't do a Leaf because I often have to drive more than 80 miles in a day without a chance to fully recharge, and we do a couple road trips per year. Now that we have multiple supercharging stations on our normal routes, plus one right down the road opening soon, a Tesla is truly feasible now. I was already patiently waiting for the 3 to come, but what did me in was actually riding in one for the first time a couple months ago. That's when I decided to actually look at budget, costs, etc and realized that next year I could easily do a 70D.

I very much dislike the entire experience of driving in ICE cars. They're loud (especially Hondas) and stinky. It feels like using a rotary phone after you've used a smartphone. I also dislike stopping at gas stations very much. If someone else had an EV that could get me 200 miles plus super fast charging and also look good, I'd consider something other than Tesla. But the Leaf is hideous. The i3 is pretty ugly. The new Volt is ok, but it's still using gas.

So basically it's not an itch to get a new car, it's an itch to get an EV and finally be done with gas. Also, two years is a long time, and it will probably be more like three, even if I get my reservation in the first hour it goes live.

- - - Updated - - -

green1 said:
I have to second that one,

I bought CPO (well, inventory actually but it was from the CPO site and it was a full year old with over 10,000km on it) and it was the way to go, I got a vehicle higher spec than I would ever have done myself, for 25% less than what I would have speced myself.
I'm also expecting the CPO inventory to expand as X deliveries ramp up (lots of people upgrading) so it should be easy enough to find something soon. For that matter, older MS are already probably less expensive than a fully loaded Model 3, and Tesla provides an excellent warranty on them.

Also, I know Tesla has talked about 2017 and 2018, but do yourself a favour and look at their history, I'm optimistically hoping that they'll make 2019, but I'm not holding my breath.

Maybe they'll have a good selection of 70Ds on CPO by next summer if I decide the 3 isn't worth waiting for.

Or maybe I'll get the 70D CPO and then get a 3 for myself and my wife can have the S :smile:

bigbear · Nov 20, 2015

I have a 2004 prius with 182k miles on it and I'm happy to wait until 2018, hopefully the end of 2017. Get ready and wait!!!

dduffey · Nov 20, 2015

McHoffa said:
When I bought my current car in 2009 (Honda Fit) I decided it would be the last ICE car I'd buy. I'm currently planning on putting money down toward a fully loaded M3 in March (estimating $65K), but I honestly don't know if I'm prepared to wait an additional two years after that (or longer, realistically) to go electric. My other option would be to buy a MS 70D with only a couple options. If the M3's range is low, design too crazy, or features/performance just not up there with the S, it'll be an easy decision, but otherwise, I'll be torn on which to go with.

Anyone else in the same boat?

Similar boat. Bought a new Fit Sport in 2007 and I keep eyeing the Volt to hold me over. But the Fit is still in like new condition and I have no doubt that IT can wait that long

It is really tempting to get the Volt but I know I wouldn't keep it.

I've had a deposit on the X (two years now and so many life changes since then!) but I think I will pass because I think the 3 will be more my size. I took some of the money I put aside for the X and put solar (SunPower) on the house this year ... which feels great.

Max* · Nov 20, 2015

After getting the S, we sold the wife's SUV, and did a 3 year lease for her on a smaller car until the Model 3 comes out.

GermanMIII · Nov 22, 2015

I am in a similar situation here in germany, bought my Audi A4 back in 2010 (Produktion year 2007). 245.000Km now and counting. I promised myself this will be my last ICE car. Now i have to wait for the Tesla Model 3. And i definitly will wait - i mean its hard to wait but on the other side dreaming is very nice. The only thing that could happen is when the M3 doesnt have 350 Km minimum real range, thats what i definitly need because of my work.
So, i´m in the same boat. Hope that we get enough information in march to know whether its worth the wait or not....

Cheers

ratsbew · Nov 22, 2015

Just wait and be patient. Your car will easily last that long. It will be worth the wait.

Spenny818 · Nov 23, 2015

I'm also fighting this dilemma. I currently have a 2008 Prius with 240,000km on it, however I am looking at getting a used Volt to tide me over until the Model III. On one hand, it would be really nice to go electric 2 years earlier, but on the other I don't think my car will depreciate that much more in the next 2 years, whereas a newer Volt will. I am almost more inclined to just put the monthly payment of a Volt into a savings account for Model III.

My $0.02.

physicsfita · Nov 23, 2015

Spenny818 said:
I'm also fighting this dilemma. I currently have a 2008 Prius with 240,000km on it, however I am looking at getting a used Volt to tide me over until the Model III. On one hand, it would be really nice to go electric 2 years earlier, but on the other I don't think my car will depreciate that much more in the next 2 years, whereas a newer Volt will. I am almost more inclined to just put the monthly payment of a Volt into a savings account for Model III.

My $0.02.

240,000 km? You're just getting that Prius broke in! My 2007 Prius has over 335,000 miles on it, and my mechanic thinks it will go to 500,000 miles without any real trouble. I wound up making the same decision as you, basically -- I'll get a Volt only if the Prius doesn't make it to when the Model 3 ships. (The Bolt is a possibility -- it depends on what sort of DCFC network is available, and if the range is EPA or "marketing miles".)

Candleflame · Nov 23, 2015

GermanMIII said:
I am in a similar situation here in germany, bought my Audi A4 back in 2010 (Produktion year 2007). 245.000Km now and counting. I promised myself this will be my last ICE car. Now i have to wait for the Tesla Model 3. And i definitly will wait - i mean its hard to wait but on the other side dreaming is very nice. The only thing that could happen is when the M3 doesnt have 350 Km minimum real range, thats what i definitly need because of my work.
So, i´m in the same boat. Hope that we get enough information in march to know whether its worth the wait or not....

Cheers

if you drive autobahn style you will struggle hard to get 350km even out of a 100% charged Model S85. My guess is, at ~110-120kmh you may just be able to pull it off.

Electricfan · Nov 23, 2015

anticitizen13.7 said:
I could buy a Volt or a LEAF, but I want a car that is great, not just ok.

The Volt is a great car. Have you driven one? If not, try it, you might like it. If you're one of the "lucky" ones who live in the right area, you might be able to buy a 2016 Volt, and it gets over 50 miles of all-electric driving. I have a 2011 Volt and love the car, but may trade it on a 2017 Volt and possibly sell my Tesla. I'm under-whelmed with auto-pilot so far, which was the reason I got my 2015 Tesla. I may go back to Chevy-only driving next year, if the auto-pilot feature doesn't drastically improve.

bigbear · Nov 23, 2015

Electricfan said:
The Volt is a great car. Have you driven one? If not, try it, you might like it. If you're one of the "lucky" ones who live in the right area, you might be able to buy a 2016 Volt, and it gets over 50 miles of all-electric driving. I have a 2011 Volt and love the car, but may trade it on a 2017 Volt and possibly sell my Tesla. I'm under-whelmed with auto-pilot so far, which was the reason I got my 2015 Tesla. I may go back to Chevy-only driving next year, if the auto-pilot feature doesn't drastically improve.

You'd rather have a 17 volt over a 15 prius?

aronth5 · Nov 23, 2015

GermanMIII said:
I am in a similar situation here in germany, bought my Audi A4 back in 2010 (Produktion year 2007). 245.000Km now and counting. I promised myself this will be my last ICE car. Now i have to wait for the Tesla Model 3. And i definitly will wait - i mean its hard to wait but on the other side dreaming is very nice. The only thing that could happen is when the M3 doesnt have 350 Km minimum real range, thats what i definitly need because of my work.
So, i´m in the same boat. Hope that we get enough information in march to know whether its worth the wait or not....

Cheers

Welcome to the forum!

Electricfan · Nov 24, 2015

bigbear said:
You'd rather have a 17 volt over a 15 prius?

Did you mean 15 Tesla? I know naught of Prius, so can't say much about it. Actually come to think of it I rented a Prius once. I liked it but didn't really get as great mpg as I'd thought I would. I think I only got about 41. But this was probably a 2012 model or so.

2018 is a long ways away. Can I wait?

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