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Thread: Model S Reservation Tally

  1. #1991
    Sig X#1100 and X#1618 Discoducky's Avatar
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  2. #1992
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    Quote Originally Posted by Discoducky View Post
    Name:  model s ramp.PNG
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    The simple chart speaks volumes. And as good as thnigs look, given that the growth rate is decidedly non-linear, it is still under-representing the underlying dynamics of demand.

    Just have to thank those who have put in the time to assemble stats. I have nothing to offer in return but my appreciation.

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    Quote Originally Posted by strangethingintheland View Post
    The simple chart speaks volumes. And as good as thnigs look, given that the growth rate is decidedly non-linear, it is still under-representing the underlying dynamics of demand.
    In other words, two shifts coming next year.

    I think that is what will happen; they will make sure one shift is running smoothly at full capacity (20k), then start a second shift.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeterW View Post
    In other words, two shifts coming next year.

    I think that is what will happen; they will make sure one shift is running smoothly at full capacity (20k), then start a second shift.
    I agree. Elon stated publicly already that he wanted to push the production rate well above 20k/yr. While the MT COTY award was clearly a huge catalyst, there are still so many other drivers yet to kick in-- lots of cars soon on the street with friends and family getting rides and drives; big wave of additional stores opening; beginning of serious marketing and shipments to EU and Asia; what else?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vger View Post
    I agree. Elon stated publicly already that he wanted to push the production rate well above 20k/yr. While the MT COTY award was clearly a huge catalyst, there are still so many other drivers yet to kick in-- lots of cars soon on the street with friends and family getting rides and drives; big wave of additional stores opening; beginning of serious marketing and shipments to EU and Asia; what else?
    Yep, all true. Tesla also said they wanted to get the wait time down to 3-4 months. Without a second shift the wait for customers will get longer not shorter. I think the second shift will start before June 2013 (maybe sooner).

  6. #1996
    Quote Originally Posted by PeterW View Post
    Yep, all true. Tesla also said they wanted to get the wait time down to 3-4 months. Without a second shift the wait for customers will get longer not shorter. I think the second shift will start before June 2013 (maybe sooner).
    They are already running 2 shifts.

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    DrDave +1
    I think, it's more likely that they built up a second line. The documentary (NatGeographic) said, that they programmed 130 Robots! That's a number...

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    Quote Originally Posted by mcornwell View Post
    Congrats Kauai. I think there are going to be many (2) Model S garages once owners get a taste.

    Which day did you reserve? Either reservations slowed down the past few days, or you reserved on the 26th or early on the 27th.
    I reserved early on the 27th. Sorry for the slow reply. Busy at work.

  9. #1999
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    Actually, Tesla is gearing up for a third shift. If you look at the TM website/career section, they are hiring CDC operators for the "Graveyard Shift". Having more CDC operators would be the first step in having a full graveyard shift. Not sure if they are hiring for other disciplines in the graveyard shift. Most other positions that listed a shift listed the swing shift.

    It was also interesting that TM had many positions that were temp or temp to perm, so it seems like TM is being smart about how they hire (in case current demand is not sustainable in 2013). IMO, TM will be able to keep up demand, as they really have not done any advertising/marketing, and current demand is from word of mouth/good press/great reviews. Once they really market the car, they may see another upward demand spike. Plus, they have only partially turned on the spigot for international demand.

  10. #2000
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    Quote Originally Posted by EV>ICE View Post
    Actually, Tesla is gearing up for a third shift. If you look at the TM website/career section, they are hiring CDC operators for the "Graveyard Shift". Having more CDC operators would be the first step in having a full graveyard shift. Not sure if they are hiring for other disciplines in the graveyard shift. Most other positions that listed a shift listed the swing shift.

    It was also interesting that TM had many positions that were temp or temp to perm, so it seems like TM is being smart about how they hire (in case current demand is not sustainable in 2013). IMO, TM will be able to keep up demand, as they really have not done any advertising/marketing, and current demand is from word of mouth/good press/great reviews. Once they really market the car, they may see another upward demand spike. Plus, they have only partially turned on the spigot for international demand.
    It's not just because demand might turn out to be soft. It appears that productivity has not been as high as anticipated, and as a result Tesla is taking a brute force approach to meeting their production targets, ie by throwing bodies at the problem.

    However, it seems very likely that productivity will eventually improve, so Tesla wouldn't want to lock themselves into a workforce that is far more than necessary to meet their production goals. So I think it's more of an "all of the above" strategy, where Tesla is just trying to stay flexible so they can adapt as both the market and their production capabilities come into greater focus.

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