Model S Reservation Tally

[Citizen-T]

I think we probably are pushing up against an upper limit though in how long people are willing to wait in line. I think that limit is probably 1 year. When we hit that level, I think reservations will drop of to sustain a 1 year wait list, but not push beyond that. I think faced with a 1 year wait, most people look at other EVs or ICEs or will choose to just wait until the wait list isn't so long.

I say this knowing full-well that many people here waited 3 years. I don't think that we are very representative of most car-buyers.

[Krugerrand]

You make a good point Citizen-T about the wait factor. However, people are notorious for wanting what they want, and wanting what's hard to get. If I remember correctly, though, I think the ultimate goal was to eventually have only a 3 monthish wait, no?

[Citizen-T]

You make a good point Citizen-T about the wait factor. However, people are notorious for wanting what they want, and wanting what's hard to get. If I remember correctly, though, I think the ultimate goal was to eventually have only a 3 monthish wait, no?

I think one month based on recent comments by GeorgeB.

I'm not saying this is a huge issue, I think that Tesla will be able to ramp up production and start burning off the backlog and better balance it with demand. My point is just that if we see the reservation rate start to decline when we hit the 1-year wait list, we shouldn't panic and assume that we are running out of demand. I expect the rate to drop off as we approach that upper limit (and maybe 1-year isn't the right place it could be somewhere else that's just my best guess).

Let's just not get crazy and extrapolate a curve out to infinity based on the recent spike in reservations. That's all.

[gg_got_a_tesla]

I'm not saying this is a huge issue, I think that Tesla will be able to ramp up production and start burning off the backlog and better balance it with demand. My point is just that if we see the reservation rate start to decline when we hit the 1-year wait list, we shouldn't panic and assume that we are running out of demand. I expect the rate to drop off as we approach that upper limit (and maybe 1-year isn't the right place it could be somewhere else that's just my best guess).

Right on. 1 year+ would be somewhat of a mental block for many buyers, even EV fans. There are no comparable performance premium EV alternatives out there though to siphon some demand away from Tesla and it doesn't look like that situation is going to change through early 2014 (till maybe Infiniti and BMW get some out the door).

[Citizen-T]

Right on. 1 year+ would be somewhat of a mental block for many buyers, even EV fans. There are no comparable performance premium EV alternatives out there though to siphon some demand away from Tesla and it doesn't look like that situation is going to change through early 2014 (till maybe Infiniti and BMW get some out the door).

But there are comparable ICEs out there. I think we'll lose customers to BMW, Merc, and the like.

[Tesla229]

For what it's worth, I just spoke with my "Product Specialist" and was told that I can expect a call from TM sometime in September to schedule delivery. Counting the fill-ups until then.....
Signature Performance #229

[dsm363]

For what it's worth, I just spoke with my "Product Specialist" and was told that I can expect a call from TM sometime in September to schedule delivery. Counting the fill-ups until then.....
Signature Performance #229

Welcome.

Awesome. Are you Signature Special or on the Signature list? I see you put Sig 229.

[Tesla229]

Welcome.

Awesome. Are you Signature Special or on the Signature list? I see you put Sig 229.

I'm on the Signature List. (I guess I'm not "special" enough)

[dsm363]

I'm on the Signature List. (I guess I'm not "special" enough)

Tesla thinks all it's customers are special so you're good to go Anyway, with that number I'd bet you've been waiting around 2 years. It's amazing how close it is to arriving.

[mulder1231]

Wow, remember when people used to post reservation numbers in this thread? Those were the good old days...

Maybe someone with a spare $5K can put in a reservation, just to see what number we are at