2015 Q4 discussion thread for delivery numbers

News on X production, sorry for crosspost:

melton said:

My DS called today and told me, with the standard caveats, that the current production plan is to deliver the Colorado bound Signatures the last week of November / first week of December. My RN is in 1300s and my VIN is in the 300s.

He also said that the first vehicles are taking 6-8 weeks in production as they work out the process, but by mid-November the plan is for that to be brought down to 4 weeks.

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If this is true, it means that a whole lot of cars must be in production already without the status for the customers updated. I guess that would be because it is still hard for Tesla to predict production time.

He also said that the first vehicles are taking 6-8 weeks in production as they work out the process, but by mid-November the plan is for that to be brought down to 4 weeks.

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I don't understand what that means. Explanation please?

MitchJi said:

I don't understand what that means. Explanation please?

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I am guessing he means when a X enters production today it takes 6 weeks until it's ready to deliver. As they fine tune the production line for the X this will come down substantially.

He also said that the first vehicles are taking 6-8 weeks in production as they work out the process, but by mid-November the plan is for that to be brought down to 4 weeks.

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MitchJi said:

I don't understand what that means. Explanation please?

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blakegallagher said:

I am guessing he means when a X enters production today it takes 6 weeks until it's ready to deliver. As they fine tune the production line for the X this will come down substantially.

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That's what it sounded like to me too, but 6 weeks down to 4 weeks . That sounds like building them by hand! Can that possibly make any sense (I hope not!)?

So who thinks a guidance miss is priced in by now? The Model X delivery specialists have repeated to all Signature holders that it is their *goal* to deliver all Signatures by the end of the year. I will be shocked if they ship any significant quantity of production vehicles which means we are looking at 1,000 Model X only this year. Now reaching 49,000 Model S deliveries to make the 50k total guidance seems very challenging and I would think few investors think that will be easy at this point. I would be very happy to see 47,000 Model S deliveries which would continue the 50% annual growth narrative. I would also still be happy for the stock price to suffer for this since 2016 is filled with things like positive cash flow, Gigafactory production, Model 3 reservations, and Model X volume production. To be able to have one more opportunity to grow my position would be great.

The highest VIN reported on the forums is 683 with 15 or so samples including some of the later signatures. Statistically this means the highest VIN is going to be in the 700s. The rest has most likely deferred or cancelled. I think Tesla Motors is aiming to deliver those 700 cars still this year, but it's not going to be easy. 4 weeks after the 'full reveal' only an additional 3 or 4 cars have been delivered. No one has a status update on 'the factory is building your vehicle'. Clearly, the robot production line is not yet up and running. Unless Bonnie comes out with a delivery date, I think all the delivery dates communicated to later signature holders are overenthusiastic delivery specialists rather than a clear outlook on where production is at.

So here is my take on it : 700 signature model X delivered by 31st of December, if everything goes well. For good measure, I anticipate 13000 model S's delivered as well.

uselesslogin said:

........ I would also still be happy for the stock price to suffer for this since 2016 is filled with things like positive cash flow, Gigafactory production, Model 3 reservations, and Model X volume production. To be able to have one more opportunity to grow my position would be great.

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The risk for 2016 may be the rate of growth for the model S slowing. The U.S. has been cherry picked for the locations producing good sales volume per store. Europe and China aren't successful sales operations yet.

Going forward I'm unsure if selling S/X becomes harder or easier. I'm not sure if customer acquisition costs go up or down.

electracity said:

The risk for 2016 may be the rate of growth for the model S slowing.

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Model S growth rate can stagnate for 2016 and the Model X demand/production would push Tesla to positive cash flow and then the batteries are gravy.

FredTMC said:

Other opportunities include Uber, Google, city, law enforcement, limos, rental car companies other private company fleet sales.

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I see no reason why Uber or Google would be ordering fleets of Teslas right now. Neither of them own cars outside of their autonomous vehicle research fleets and I don't know why a Tesla would be a good choice for that. Law-enforcement tends to prefer cars with proven track records of reliability and durability, and even though they might have a lower TCO, a $70,000 car would cause budget concerns. I don't see a big advantage for rental car companies since they don't pay for fuel costs anyways.

If the Model 3 arrives as promised it will be a game-changer for any company that operates a fleet of vehicles and pays for it's own fuel. I don't know why anyone driving a Taxi (or an Uber) would consider any other new vehicle. But for now, the large up-front cost of the Model S is keeping a lot of that demand at bay.

Fleet cars are low profit too. Fleet sales are sometimes used to meet the volume demand of union contracts. The auto company doesn't make much money on the sale, but the production adds many hours for hourly workers.
A fleet sales on the mod 3 would likely be for basic cars. The margin on low end model 3 in the first couples of years is probably small to nonexistent. Tesla will want to design a base Model 3 that can compete fully featured in the $50-70K space. That base car will likely be more expensive to manufacture compared to cars like the Bolt. The Bolt likely looks like it does so that Chevy can always undercut Tesla on the low end of the Model 3. Upcoming cars like the i5 and Volvo will be designed to compete with Tesla in the midrange.

Estimates of Model S VIN delivery numbers, required to hit 2015 delivery targets

Working backwards, if Tesla aspires to achieve 52500 delivery of Model S in 2015, then q4 delivery needs to be 19,343 cars.

Assuming that happens, this is what we have so far, Model S only:



Delivery, leased cars and inventory numbers are from Tesla quarterly reports, with the exception of 2015 q4 delivery of 19,343. That is the required delivery number to achieve 52,500 Model S delivered in 2015. Cumulative numbers are not reported in quarterly reports.

The table shows 2014 and 2015 quarterly numbers for:

1. Leased cars
2. Inventory cars (transit, stores) in millions $.
3. Delivered cars to customers

Cumulative leased cars + cumulative delivered cars + the last quarter inventory cars = Total cars produced and delivered = The highest delivered VIN number

Note: I could not identify leased cars numbers in quarterly reports prior to q2 2014. I assume Tesla started leasing in q2 2014. If the leasing started earlier, the numbers of leased cars that I missed would be negligible. If there is an error due to that, it would be in the order of 100 cars or thereabout.



After q4, the table might look something like the below:



Assumption: no. of leased cars in q3 is 700 and in q4 is 650, and the inventory is 800 cars each quarter. These assumptions are in line with the historic performance.


Tesla needs to hit (deliver) VIN as follows:

112972 (cumulative lease and delivery) + 800 (inventory in q4) = 113772.

Any increase in the number of leased cars and in the inventory cars needs to translate into correspondingly higher delivered VIN number



There are a few assumptions above that may be incorrect, introducing error one way or the other.

Assumptions:
Inventory in q4 = 800 cars (could be higher)
Leased cars in q3 and q4 = 700 + 650 = 1350 (could be higher)
Sequential delivery of VINs

Let's say Tesla needs to be pushing out VINs in 114000+ before the end of 2015, to be on the safe side.

Model X seems unlikely to contribute much to the yearly delivery target.

Interesting ...

Not sure that indeed accounts for everything (loaners / demo's etc).

Anyway, in the Model-S delivery thread I found this posted yesterday :

Model S Delivery Update - Page 831

New S70 was confirmed on 10/21. Vin number is 113873. Heard from the delivery specialist today that the car is scheduled to go into Production in Mid-December. What I don't understand: Per the delivery spreadsheet, VINs up to 111870 are currently in Production.
At a rate of 1,000 cars/week, my car should be in Production during mid November. Is the DS incorrect with a better date to come in the future, or do things sometimes get this much "out of order"?


Of course, Tesla will have to be able to get that car produced as well as shipped to the customer. We all remember last years end-of-year delivery issues.
The car refered to here is from a buyer in CA. Could very well be why his production started later than he expected comparing to other VIN's.

Gerardf said:

Interesting ...

Not sure that indeed accounts for everything (loaners / demo's etc).

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Loaners and demos should be reported as finished goods inventory.

Tesla might scrumble VINs a bit, but only upwards, not downwards, ie we might see artificially high VINs assigned to people.

Tesla also handles CPO cars at an increasing rate, not sure how these cars will be reported.

Great post, Auzie. I like that you are going for 52,500 and not 50,000 - which I think many bulls would be happy with given the current sentiment.

For the record, leasing was first announced in April 2013, I think it was part of the 5-part trilogy: Tesla Announces Model S Leasing From $500/Month* - But Not Really (Video With CEO) | Inside EVs

And business leasing seems to have been announced April 2014: Tesla's new $408 per month business lease deal for Model S reminds us of last 'revolutionay' deal

If you are looking for another vin data point, I just confirmed an order for a 90d with a vin of 114390. December delivery. I'm assuming the vin everyone quotes is just the last six digits of the number under the picture of the car on the my tesla page right?

Can we really read anything definitive into the vins? Has anyone successfully drawn any conclusions in past quarters studying vins? I'm sure similar analysis has been attempted in the past. I've exited all my options positions prior to earnings but I could be persuaded to get back in...

esk8mw said:

Can we really read anything definitive into the vins? Has anyone successfully drawn any conclusions in past quarters studying vins? I'm sure similar analysis has been attempted in the past. I've exited all my options positions prior to earnings but I could be persuaded to get back in...

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VIN counting was effective during the early Model S days, but after a lot of people got burned on a bad ER, the general consensus was that the method was not accurate enough anymore. Still, I'd like to see some members see if they can find any flaws in Auzie's logic here.