Estimates of Model S VIN delivery numbers, required to hit 2015 delivery targets
Working backwards, if Tesla aspires to achieve 52500 delivery of Model S in 2015, then q4 delivery needs to be 19,343 cars.
Assuming that happens, this is what we have so far, Model S only:
Delivery, leased cars and inventory numbers are from
Tesla quarterly reports, with the exception of 2015 q4 delivery of 19,343. That is the required delivery number to achieve 52,500 Model S delivered in 2015. Cumulative numbers are not reported in quarterly reports.
The table shows 2014 and 2015 quarterly numbers for:
1. Leased cars
2. Inventory cars (transit, stores) in millions $.
3. Delivered cars to customers
Cumulative leased cars + cumulative delivered cars + the last quarter inventory cars = Total cars produced and delivered = The highest delivered VIN number
Note: I could not identify leased cars numbers in quarterly reports prior to q2 2014. I assume Tesla started leasing in q2 2014. If the leasing started earlier, the numbers of leased cars that I missed would be negligible. If there is an error due to that, it would be in the order of 100 cars or thereabout.
After q4, the table might look something like the below:
Assumption: no. of leased cars in q3 is 700 and in q4 is 650, and the inventory is 800 cars each quarter. These assumptions are in line with the historic performance.
Tesla needs to hit (deliver) VIN as follows:
112972 (cumulative lease and delivery) + 800 (inventory in q4) =
113772.
Any increase in the number of leased cars and in the inventory cars needs to translate into correspondingly higher delivered VIN number
There are a few assumptions above that may be incorrect, introducing error one way or the other.
Assumptions:
Inventory in q4 = 800 cars (could be higher)
Leased cars in q3 and q4 = 700 + 650 = 1350 (could be higher)
Sequential delivery of VINs
Let's say Tesla needs to be pushing out VINs in 114000+ before the end of 2015, to be on the safe side.
Model X seems unlikely to contribute much to the yearly delivery target.