The Tesla Motors mass market car....???

[stopcrazypp]

So you think their energy density will increase by 20% in 5 years or less than 4% increase per year ?!

I think in 5 years they will have a couple of range options. The base with the current 24 kWh battery but for about $25k (without tax credits - which anyway may have expired by then). A larger pack with some 150 or 200 mile range as an option for about $35k.

So far the 8% per year only applies to 18650s (with new cells coming out basically every year from Panasonic). It's hard to tell how fast automotive cells will improve (esp. in terms of reaching the market). They first have to use up the older cells and it'll take a while given the current low volumes of BEVs. For Nissan specifically, it'll depend on how far they get with their NMC chemistry (they originally planned 2015).

[strider]

Tesla could build a Gen III Alpha next summer, show it around for a year, build a Beta, show IT around for a year, all to keep the public (and us) hyped up and meanwhile waiting for two more of the yearly 8 to 14 percent battery improvement iterations before they place battery ordes, start crash testing, EPA certification, etc. Who knows, this may be what Tesla did with the Model S. Calculate to a certain extent what the next next gen batteries will be and base range claims on that.

This would be a very bad idea IMO. It would cannibalize higher margin X and S sales as people will wait for the "cheaper" car. Sell what's on the apple cart - selling futures is bad for business. Heck I think they brought out Model X too early and a number of people switched from S to X.

[BYT_P1,837]

The Model X is a tank in my opinion and I don't need AWD so the Model S is still perfect and I wouldn't ever change to that. Besides, I can't wait another year at this point!

[Grendal]

So you think their energy density will increase by 20% in 5 years or less than 4% increase per year ?!

I think in 5 years they will have a couple of range options. The base with the current 24 kWh battery but for about $25k (without tax credits - which anyway may have expired by then). A larger pack with some 150 or 200 mile range as an option for about $35k.

Tesla is a small company trying to build a cutting edge car. Tesla will push for every advance and advantage they can, while Nissan is a large old conservative company. That's why I'm being conservative in battery advances for the Leaf. So I'll stick with my prediction and also say they won't have range choices until Leaf Mk. III (2018-ish). The reason they will even offer range choices is because Tesla will have, by that time, shown that offering battery choices is a successful business strategy.

And to get back on the Mass Market/Bluestar topic, DougG said the Bluestar wouldn't be compelling without a 200 mile pack. I don't see how Tesla can have the starting pack be 200 miles. It doesn't strike me as monetarily feasible at a $35K starting price. I'll stick with my prediction there as well: 150 miles at 55 MPH or 120 realistic highway miles for the starting pack. Tesla will offer pack upgrades for an increase in price just like the Model S and Model X.

[Grendal]

It would cannibalize higher margin X and S sales as people will wait for the "cheaper" car. Sell what's on the apple cart - selling futures is bad for business.

I agree that premature showing of the Bluestar is not a good idea for lots of reasons. The current timeline for the Bluestar is 2015 at the earliest and a 2014 premiere should not be too early or hurt Model S or Model X sales.

Heck I think they brought out Model X too early and a number of people switched from S to X.

Disagree with you there. If someone switched it's because they thought the X was more appropriate for them. And there are a lot of people that are now buying both.

[Norbert]

I'll stick with my prediction there as well: 150 miles at 55 MPH or 120 realistic highway miles for the starting pack. Tesla will offer pack upgrades for an increase in price just like the Model S and Model X.

I could see that, however it really needs a >200 mile option from the beginning. I could also imagine that they start with a more-premium higher priced low volume version, yet same design/body, as a test balloon.

[Grendal]

I could see that, however it really needs a >200 mile option from the beginning. I could also imagine that they start with a more-premium higher priced low volume version, yet same design/body, as a test balloon.

If what you're saying is that they do the same type of rollout of the Bluestar/Mass Market as they did with the Model S and the Model X then I absolutely agree. There should be similar upgrade in pack/performance such as 150/210/275 mile versions with Signature and performance options. The base model being $35K and a Signature performance version at $60K+. I don't see any reason to distance themselves from their current marketing/selling strategy.

[tdelta1000]

Will the automotive market ever see a mass market car designed and built by Tesla Motors??? I'm not sure but I would i like to see that happen. In the past 18 months, I have seen several manufacture design and in some cases put small and cheap EVs on the road. Will TM be able to compete in this arena? If TM is going for an SUV and then a Coupe when will we expect to see a TM mass market EV? Just had some questions.

Having taken a step back and rethinking my initial question, I think Tesla will reach the goal of producing a 3 series, Fisker Atlantic, and Ford Fusion fighter in the near future but it will be done in a very calculated fashion. Tesla will used the S and X to button up their production line, TM will use their current battery management technology to maximize current and future battery chemistry and finally Mr. Musk has made it his goal.