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Speculation re: next major Model S upgrade announcement

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finallybuying

finallybuying

Member
Jun 7, 2015
42
10
San Mateo County, CA
#1
I'm planning to order sometime between November and February. (I have personal reasons why this might shift.) I know the old adage that we won't know when a new major upgrade to the Model S will be announced until it is announced . . . but ignoring that for a moment, if you had to take an educated guess, when would the next major Model S upgrade be announced?

By major upgrade, what I mean is a larger battery (100? 90 standard?), a standard center console (yeah, I know), or other major change that might make someone decide to wait to order. (Define it however you want, really.)

Again, I completely understand no-one knows. Just looking for speculation. What do you think?

(My thought is that the $1k incentive program expires October 31, and there have been previous major announcements in November, so by the end of November might be a good timeframe. But if not then, when?)

Thank you.
 
#2
Tesla says there are no plans for a refresh of the Model S. Given Tesla's communication history, I can understand if you discount their own opinion. But they also have their hands full with getting the (or rather a) model X out of the door. Battery capacity kept the same for more than 3 full years before it got an upgrade just 6 months ago, so I don't expect anything new on that front for at least another year.
 
#3
I was waiting for 4 month before pulling the trigger 6 days ago. If I can tell you one advice - buy it now because (1) you can get $2,000 discount using a referral from VA, and (2) no major changes can be introduced for at least 6 month, that will be worth waiting and not driving.
 
#4
My advice is to buy when it suits you financially and logistically given your personal situation. Trying to tie it to whatever Tesla is going to do is a fools errand. We don't even know when they will do the things they say they will do - AP Lanekeeping, P85D Upgrade, etc. let alone the things they haven't promised to do!
 
#5
The Road and Track article says they don't have plans for a redesign, and I can see that. There will be no major changes to the Model S for some time. The 90KWh battery was offered because it is the standard battery size on the Model X, so it was kind of a gimme upgrade option that cost them no extra engineering effort. There aren't many other features of the Model X that can be moved over to the S without some engineering effort. I think they might incorporate the X door handles at some point because they are simpler than the S, but the auto door opening is a complexity factor that would require engineering resources to retrofit. The only other Model X gimme I can see is the standard 72A charger. Tesla might upgrade the standard charger on the Model S to 72A. If it will fit in the same space the 40A charger fits in now, it won't take much engineering, just a bit of testing to make sure it works, though probably not much because the charging electronics between the two cars is very similar if not identical.

I suspected something was up when Tesla moved the dual charger from something that could be ordered with the car to an upgrade option on the S. This was probably when they were finalizing the design of the Model X charging hardware. They probably still have some 40 A charger hardware kits in stock and they will use those up before switching over. I doubt it will come as a big fanfare announcement, but there will probably be some kind of announcement.

The HEPA filter might make it into the S at some point, but the housing for that is very large and it takes advantage of the bigger height of the Model X to fit. With the S's smaller cross section, it may not fit easily in the space available.

I expect the next battery size announcement will be sometime after the Gigafactory is up and going. They probably have no plans for changing battery packs until they are building their own batteries and have more control over the price and form factor of the batteries. Tesla engineers have said they will be going to a rectangular battery at some point after the Gigafactory opens. That will allow for an increase in battery density of about 25-30%, but it may not be done immediately. I expect at least a year before any announcements of bigger capacity battery packs.
 
#7
I don't consider a tick up in battery size, or Hepa a major upgrade. Well, perhaps MS HEPA would be important in China.

If Tesla was going to do something like a new dash soon, it would have happened with the MX release.

Of course they will have some improvements later next year, but that will always be true. Now seems like a good time to order an MS with little risk of buyer's remorse immediately after delivery.
 
#8
My guess is that towing capability will be added fairly soon. We don't know exactly what, if anything, was done to strengthen the chassis on the MX to allow towing, but we DO know that the early testing for towing was done using a Model S.

I don't think it will be a big stretch of engineering resources to carry towing capability over to the MS.
 
#11
wdolson said:
I think they might incorporate the X door handles at some point because they are simpler than the S, but the auto door opening is a complexity factor that would require engineering resources to retrofit.
Click to expand...
The X style door handles are not "handles" because they do not extend and you cannot grasp onto them. Based on descriptions from people who were at the X launch event, they are "buttons" that cause the door to open when touched. So unless Tesla changes all the S doors to the powered style of the X front doors, the S handles will not change. I do not expect Tesla to add powered doors to the S any time soon. I could be wrong.
To the OP: Tesla adds features ("major" and "minor") to the S on no particular schedule, with no advance warning, and it is very hard to predict what will be added and when. Place your order when the car meets your needs. If you wait to order because you think something better is coming, you will be right: something better is coming, and you will never place an order because something better is always coming.
 
#12
I believe autopilot hardware version 2 might come out soon...This is just my guess

Next in line:

Version 7 and auto pilot features release
Better battery pack for Model X ?? Early 2016
Autopilot hardware 2 release...Mid 2016

Any guesses:confused:
 
#13
taurusking said:
I believe autopilot hardware version 2 might come out soon...This is just my guess

Next in line:

Version 7 and auto pilot features release
Better battery pack for Model X ?? Early 2016
Autopilot hardware 2 release...Mid 2016

Any guesses:confused:
Click to expand...

Which begs the question, does the Model X already have Autopilot 2 hardware? Check out the photo from post2188 in the link below:

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...vailable-over-6-months-after-delivery/page219

attachment.php?attachmentid=96209&d=1443662049.jpg
 
Last edited:
#16
schonelucht said:
Tesla says there are no plans for a refresh of the Model S. Given Tesla's communication history, I can understand if you discount their own opinion. But they also have their hands full with getting the (or rather a) model X out of the door. Battery capacity kept the same for more than 3 full years before it got an upgrade just 6 months ago, so I don't expect anything new on that front for at least another year.
Click to expand...
vitaliy said:
If I can tell you one advice - buy it now because (1) you can get $2,000 discount using a referral from VA, and (2) no major changes can be introduced for at least 6 month, that will be worth waiting and not driving.
Click to expand...
wdolson said:
The Road and Track article says they don't have plans for a redesign, and I can see that. There will be no major changes to the Model S for some time. The 90KWh battery was offered because it is the standard battery size on the Model X, so it was kind of a gimme upgrade option that cost them no extra engineering effort. There aren't many other features of the Model X that can be moved over to the S without some engineering effort. I think they might incorporate the X door handles at some point because they are simpler than the S, but the auto door opening is a complexity factor that would require engineering resources to retrofit. The only other Model X gimme I can see is the standard 72A charger. Tesla might upgrade the standard charger on the Model S to 72A. If it will fit in the same space the 40A charger fits in now, it won't take much engineering, just a bit of testing to make sure it works, though probably not much because the charging electronics between the two cars is very similar if not identical.

I suspected something was up when Tesla moved the dual charger from something that could be ordered with the car to an upgrade option on the S. This was probably when they were finalizing the design of the Model X charging hardware. They probably still have some 40 A charger hardware kits in stock and they will use those up before switching over. I doubt it will come as a big fanfare announcement, but there will probably be some kind of announcement.

The HEPA filter might make it into the S at some point, but the housing for that is very large and it takes advantage of the bigger height of the Model X to fit. With the S's smaller cross section, it may not fit easily in the space available.

I expect the next battery size announcement will be sometime after the Gigafactory is up and going.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the replies. Let me first just say I'm in a unique situation. Long story but it is easier for me to just wait to order until February time-frame. That said I want it now and am struggling with waiting. That's the basic reason I asked the question - looking for reasons to avoid ordering now as it would be better for personal reasons to wait. With that context. . .

I am a little surprised at the lack of replies speculating that changes may be announced during the October to February timeframe. I get that R&T indicated there won't be a body redesign (and agree), but would have thought some might be expecting more changes sooner to the MS - especially given the changes incorporated into the MX. For example, I would have thought folks here would speculate that some or all of these features (any of which I, at least, would consider a major enough upgrade to shift my order date to account for):
- 90 kWh battery standard (as opposed to an upgrade) (standard on MX)
- a/c ventilated front seats (avail on MX)
- paint colors from the MX available on MS (note: I now see that Silver is back on the MS, apparently due to MX having it)
- upgraded auto pilot hardware

I also, could easily see some surprises announced in this timeframe. Why do I think this? The MS is (still) the flagship Tesla. Historically Tesla has made major announcements in the November/February timeframe. Again, pretty surprised not to see more folks speculating more upgrades. I'm definitely a newbie so this is interesting stuff.
 
#18
Here are my thoughts...

First off, was at a Tesla showroom yesterday (Tuesday) to test drive a P90DL, a P90D and 90D and to understand the differences in the seats and sound system. Early on we noticed that the regular leather seat options had changed over-night with only one regular seat option available in black. Long time Tesla sales person was totally un-aware of this change and had no prior warning.

My speculation on this is that Tesla is probably either A) again simplifying the S line for production OR B) is trying to exhaust the current inventory of Next Gen Seats in preparation for a new version of the Next Gen seat (like in the model X). Time will tell. I am not certain this will happen.

Version 7 of the Model S software will be out within one month so expect that before Thanksgiving. I would say this is fairly certain to happen.

It is possible that a new interior wood trim choice may be coming as shown in the Model X. I am not certain this will happen but it makes sense.

It is possible that the nesting feature of the iPhone as shown in the Model X may make its way into the Model S optional center console. Do not hold your breath on this as the center console has been a enigma.

The very odd (to me) air filtration system of the Model X could perhaps find its way into the S... But really.... it is VERY ODD. I was horrified watching the X intro with how much time was spent on that one option.

Exterior colors come and go and I would say that you can expect a change in that area in the next 6 months if history is your guide.

I also think that version 7 of the software could provide some small level of performance to existing Model S cars or efficiency improvements....

Advancements in Autopilot hardware could be coming, however, I do not care for that option and could care less about it. Old School I know...:tongue:

I keep the Model S Options WIKI up to date so am VERY aware of how often Tesla makes a tweak here and there... usually TOTALLY UNANNOUNCED. TM should really take advantage of the UPDATES BLOG to inform us of these changes as they evolve. I think we are all in agreement of this. Someone inside of Tesla Motors must feel otherwise.

I will be ordering my P90D in early December for a late March delivery.

BTW, when I first started following the Model S, the P85+ was my car of choice, then it evolved to the P85D and now the P90D. My, how that car has changed.... and for the better. The P90D Ludicrous is one BEAST of an automobile. Yet you can drive it like a tottering grandmother if you choose. I just smile.
 
Last edited:
#19
ArtInCT said:
Here are my thoughts...
The very odd (to me) air filtration system of the Model X could perhaps find its way into the S... But really.... it is VERY ODD. I was horrified watching the X intro with how much time was spent on that one option.
Click to expand...

Stats have been out showing the Model S market is something like 83% men and women were more interested in the Model X on average, than the Model S. They also know that a big selling point for men is usually performance, whereas women are usually much more interested in safety. So the presentation hung a lantern on the safety features of the Model X first. I think it may have been sort of overkill, but they did it to appeal to women.
 
#20
wdolson said:
Stats have been out showing the Model S market is something like 83% men and women were more interested in the Model X on average, than the Model S. They also know that a big selling point for men is usually performance, whereas women are usually much more interested in safety. So the presentation hung a lantern on the safety features of the Model X first. I think it may have been sort of overkill, but they did it to appeal to women.
Click to expand...
Apparently folks need a reminder about how long Safety has been at the forefront for Tesla. This isn't something new for Model X.

Revealing Model S Beta | Tesla Motors
Revealing Model S Beta
October 3, 2011
Beta Reveal Pt. 1: Intro & Safety
 
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