Potential Impact of VW Diesel Cheating on EV Sales in the U.S. And Europe

Quant · Sep 21, 2015

1. News is tricking out that real world tests of emissions vs. lab tests of Volkswagen diesel cars sold in Europe have ALSO been a mystery to many researchers in Europe.

It is reported that about half of all car sales in Europe is diesel !

2. Have other car manufacturers used other similar or equivalent measures to boost their emissions testing scores in the lab in Euope, and/or EPA testing in the USA , which is not matched by real world driving conditions ?

How did all this happen over the past several years ? This could not have been a complete secret within Volkswagen for the CEO to admit to it so quickly!!

Were other car manufacturers aware ? After all employees at senior levels do move around....

Why are other car manufacturers being silent ?

The NEWS CYCLE on this big story is just beginning and will probably have a life of at least 6-12 months!

More researchers and law firms will now be doing more such tests and looking for software tweaks and software based cheating on ALL other manufacturers both in the U.S., Canada and Europe. Maybe China too , given the extremely poor air quality in cities like Beijing ?

Law suits and fines will mushroom .....other manufacturers will be forced to say, on the record, whether or not they did anything similar....

This could potentially boost all EV sales in developed countries, incrementally, in the next 12-18 months.

DFibRL8R · Sep 21, 2015

http://www.krcomplexlit.com/index.asp?N=attorneys-Seattle-WA-Volkswagen-Investigation&C=517&P=15144

This law firm has already filed a class action lawsuit and is soliciting for clients. Amazing how industrious lawyers can be when properly motivated (working on Sunday and such)!
Not to mention the 18% hit their stock has taken today.

MitchJi · Sep 22, 2015

http://jalopnik.com/your-guide-to-dieselgate-volkswagens-diesel-cheating-c-1731857018

Update 9/21: This morning Volkswagen Canada also announced they were halting sales of TDI models. The CBC reports Environment Canada is in talks with the EPA “to further examine this issue and assess potential implications for Canada.”

Update 9/22: This morning VW announced that the cheating issue on diesel engines is much more vast than initially expected. The company admitted to cheating on 11 million diesel engines worldwide...

jaguar36 · Sep 22, 2015

Quant said:
How did all this happen over the past several years ? This could not have been a complete secret within Volkswagen for the CEO to admit to it so quickly!!

This was not a quick thing, the certification agencies had been in contact with VW for awhile, and it was only when the decided to revoke the certification for the 2016 models that VW admitted it and the story broke. It was probably fairly secret up prior to that though.

gene · Sep 22, 2015

I would expect at least some increase in sales of Tesla S and X in Germany after this fiasco.

replicant · Sep 22, 2015

11 million vehicles are affected and VW sets aside $7.3 billion.
That's $664 per car (seems pretty low to me).

Do you have an idea of the ASP of the vehicles in question?

ggr · Sep 22, 2015

9837264723849 said:
11 million vehicles are affected and VW sets aside $7.3 billion.
That's $664 per car (seems pretty low to me).

Do you have an idea of the ASP of the vehicles in question?

That's (supposedly) the cost to "fix" the cars, which is to cover recall and software update. That seems like a reasonable amount to me, especially since there are a lot of places where there won't be any actual force applied to make people accept the "fix", so lots of people will just keep polluting.

On the other hand, they are ignoring for the time being the cost of civil and regulatory penalties. Probably because they have no reasonable way to estimate what that fallout will be.

Quant · Sep 22, 2015

MitchJi said:
http://jalopnik.com/your-guide-to-dieselgate-volkswagens-diesel-cheating-c-1731857018

This is in line with the cockroach theory that the shorts ( not me ) believe in !

Whenever a cockroach comes out , it's never just one cockroach. You will see more of them!

i would not be surprised if other automakers have used different technical methods ( that are not legit ) to make their EPA ratings better !

Now that this has been exposed and was hidden in the software , we should not be surprised if researchers who will dig into all of this deeper, with every single automakers vehicles, probably funded by the class action law firms ..,unfortunately !

Again, I am not short , though maybe I should have ...last week!

I generally don't look out for these sorts of integrity issues that are somehow built in some aggressive corporate cultures.... Certainly never expected this dumb behavior from a German automaker . Really ? They did not think sometime over the course of many years they would get caught??? Dumb.. Stupid ... Irrational . Utterly un- German IMO!

Gerasimental · Sep 22, 2015

Quant said:
This is in line with the cockroach theory that the shorts ( not me ) believe in !

Whenever a cockroach comes out , it's never just one cockroach. You will see more of them!

i would not be surprised if other automakers have used different technical methods ( that are not legit ) to make their EPA ratings better !

Can't name names of course, but I have overheard from people with very good knowledge of European auto industry that this is spot on. Some of the methods are hilariously simple.

SebastianR · Sep 22, 2015

Gerasimental said:
Can't name names of course, but I have overheard from people with very good knowledge of European auto industry that this is spot on. Some of the methods are hilariously simple.

And so I really hope that these days are the days the ICE car makers recognize their burning platform and get some bloody change done. Come on, it can't be that hard! (pardon my French).

LargeHamCollider · Sep 22, 2015

The mistakes that major auto-makers are making are so careless and so heinous it almost makes me feel sorry for them.

#1 Toyota's fuel cell goose chase will (I believe) be seen as one of the 5 worst strategic blunders in corporate history.

And now #2 commits an error that is so unbelievably stupid I'm just at a loss...

I guess we're all just humans, all very subject to confirmation bias and groupthink, but just wow.

VWs cash position is strong at ~18b USD at the end of last year but I suspect this will delay any serious Tesla competitors that VW had in the works, while drawing attention to the inferiority of ICE-mobiles.

Staring at my TSLA is so schadenfreudelicous today.

SebastianR · Sep 23, 2015

Quant said:
This is in line with the cockroach theory that the shorts ( not me ) believe in !

Whenever a cockroach comes out , it's never just one cockroach. You will see more of them!

i would not be surprised if other automakers have used different technical methods ( that are not legit ) to make their EPA ratings better !

I think there is a lot to the cockroach theory: I'm currently driving an Audi (not an A3 which is officially affected car) and I thought that I would like to verify with Audi, if there was cheating involved with my car, too. So I contacted them, gave them my VIN and asked them to confirm that there was no cheating for my car. They flat-out refused to do that. They said that at this time, they will not say anything. If they were 100% sure that there was no cheating involved, then they would have just confirmed that my car is as clean (or dirty) as they advertised. But they refused to say anything. To me that's a sign that they are scrambling to find out how deep that problem really runs.

jkirkebo · Sep 23, 2015

I think this scandal will motivate VW to shift focus from their diesel-engines to the EV and plug-in hybrid product lines. I assume they will ramp up battery production capacity and offer the GTE-variant in more cars. For now it's available in the Golf and soon the Passat. Sales of the e-Golf and Golf GTE vastly outnumber the diesel variants in Norway already, while a couple of years ago the TDI dominated completely.

lucy · Sep 23, 2015

Had some tweets regarding conversion to EV show up in my feed yesterday.

Previously I had only seen conversions of vintage cars.

https://twitter.com/aminorjourney/status/646436899154845696

Dennis Pascual retweeted

Lex ‏@alexeiw123 Sep 22
Hey @Volkswagen - I fixed the #volkswagen #emissions for you. #EV #Conversion

RETWEETS3
FAVORITES7

jhm · Sep 23, 2015

Ok, here's an opportunity for shorts to make some money and do the world some good at the same time. Here's the play: test real world emission on a bunch of cars, and find out who the cheaters are. Short the cheaters. Publish emissions data. Watch stock prices fall. Yay, capitalism.

VolkerP · Sep 23, 2015

jhm said:
test real world emission on a bunch of cars, and find out who the cheaters are. Short the cheaters. Publish emissions data. Watch stock prices fall. Yay, capitalism.

Hopefully, some folks will do exactly this. Watch for emission test laboratories that refuse to accept investigations because "we're overbooked all of a sudden."

Curt Renz · Sep 24, 2015

"Scientists Say Car Emissions Rigging Raises Health Concerns" - Scientific American Article

RobStark · Sep 24, 2015

eloder · Sep 25, 2015

EPA to road test cars after Volkswagen emissions scandal

The EPA will finally start actual road-tests of cars, and they're starting with ones on the road today.

This should be good...

EarlyAdopter · Sep 26, 2015

eloder said:
EPA to road test cars after Volkswagen emissions scandal

The EPA will finally start actual road-tests of cars, and they're starting with ones on the road today.

This should be good...

Oh man, this is gonna be fun to watch. Where's the popcorn?

Potential Impact of VW Diesel Cheating on EV Sales in the U.S. And Europe

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