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Hmm... no option that she will cancel because of "foldgate"? I thought 40% will cancel because of that, you know we even have a poll...
astrothad
Member
March 27 is the first Sunday after the first full moon after the vernal equinox, so... March 27.
This question sounds like it should spawn yet another ludicrously speculative thread about what Easter eggs will be in the software of the Model X.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
You know, I can see this thread.
I won't vote, of course. I'd expect (but do not know) that I'll see my X sometime in Nov/Dec timeframe. I have no anticipated delivery date assigned.
I won't vote, of course. I'd expect (but do not know) that I'll see my X sometime in Nov/Dec timeframe. I have no anticipated delivery date assigned.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
Wow, nov/dec is pretty pessimistic for sig #2. That's in the 100 or fewer cars delivered this year territory. Now where did I see that prediction again?
As I said, that is based on no knowledge of actual delivery date.
I'm the one who likes to manager her own expectations. Up until I confirmed yesterday, I wasn't excited about getting an X. It was always something 'someday'. So it's entirely normal and to be expected that I mentally will push out the date, so that I'm not making inappropriate plans around a delivery date.
Just how I roll.
Don't read too much into it.
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
So you don't vote but you tell us here...You know, I can see this thread.
I won't vote, of course. I'd expect (but do not know) that I'll see my X sometime in Nov/Dec timeframe. I have no anticipated delivery date assigned.
Given that Tesla apparently now has communicated that only Sigs will be delivered this year I think your estimate is a realistic one. I voted before reading the comments and voted second half of November...
Having yours slip to far into December would cause them some issues getting all the Sigs out... so calculating back from that... yeah, I'll stick with my vote.
But in reality I hope the answer is "when it's ready".
They should be building yours this week and then test the car that they built some more. And then build you a new one in a month or so
Merrill
Merrill
So a Thanksgiving party at picnic creek so show off the Model X?As I said, that is based on no knowledge of actual delivery date.
I'm the one who likes to manager her own expectations. Up until I confirmed yesterday, I wasn't excited about getting an X. It was always something 'someday'. So it's entirely normal and to be expected that I mentally will push out the date, so that I'm not making inappropriate plans around a delivery date.
Just how I roll.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
I'm in SoCal for Thanksgiving.
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So you don't vote but you tell us here...
If I voted (visible) and someone didn't read the comments, they might assume that I had knowledge of the delivery date. That was the only reason.
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
Good point, oh wise one. That makes perfect sense.If I voted (visible) and someone didn't read the comments, they might assume that I had knowledge of the delivery date. That was the only reason.
Merrill
Merrill
I'm in SoCal for Thanksgiving.
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Maybe trick or treat at picnic creek?
Signaturex
Member
I am one of the few that chose After December 1. In fact I would have been tempted to choose 2016 if that was an option.
There are many people here who are lot more informed than me. So I might very well be wrong. But FWIW here is my reasoning:
Looks like Tesla planned to release the car without 2nd row seat folding. But after seeing the reaction, they ought to fix this before release. I really see no way that signature folks get their cars without folding seats.
It's a HUGE issue for multiple reasons:
1) Elon promised that he will never ship a non-compelling car/product (this was when 40kWh was getting deprecated).
2) Elon promised that production car will always be better than demo cars. He mentioned this multiple times actually. In interviews/CCs and on twitter.
3) Many (uninformed) people will feel that it's a bait-and-switch to suddenly realize that the seats don't fold. What if people notice this well after taking delivery and are shocked? In this litigious society, opportunistic lawyers will certainly see blood in the water. Class-action lawsuits anyone? Sure Tesla can pre-empt this by "clearly" communicating this up-front before or during taking delivery. But clear communication seems to be the last thing Tesla is good at.
4) If many months later they fix this to boost demand, how will many signature holders feel with the wrong seats? They are promised, they are not given, then everybody else after them is given the right seats. This will not be right at so many levels.
In a nut shell, I fully expect them to fix the seats before the true launch (founders series doesn't count).
So now we are talking about back to the drawing board and re-designing the seats. Design, implement, test, productionise, and maybe multiple iterations of that actually. This will take several months.
For reference, Tesla took 6-months to launch the Titanium underbody from the first f!re incident, which should have promoted them to start exploring a solution. It's a seemingly simpler issue.
Put this all together, we have an early 2016 launch.
On a separate note, I am also very suspicious of all these cgi screenshots in the design studio. Why not real pictures? They didn't want a single photographer to be able to see the car? Ok, even if that's the case, nobody in-the-inside is capable of taking a decent picture? really?
Think about this, how much harder is generating a fake cgi picture, with a bike and everything, than a simple click on a camera? The only thing I can think of is that the car is not ready.
There are many people here who are lot more informed than me. So I might very well be wrong. But FWIW here is my reasoning:
Looks like Tesla planned to release the car without 2nd row seat folding. But after seeing the reaction, they ought to fix this before release. I really see no way that signature folks get their cars without folding seats.
It's a HUGE issue for multiple reasons:
1) Elon promised that he will never ship a non-compelling car/product (this was when 40kWh was getting deprecated).
2) Elon promised that production car will always be better than demo cars. He mentioned this multiple times actually. In interviews/CCs and on twitter.
3) Many (uninformed) people will feel that it's a bait-and-switch to suddenly realize that the seats don't fold. What if people notice this well after taking delivery and are shocked? In this litigious society, opportunistic lawyers will certainly see blood in the water. Class-action lawsuits anyone? Sure Tesla can pre-empt this by "clearly" communicating this up-front before or during taking delivery. But clear communication seems to be the last thing Tesla is good at.
4) If many months later they fix this to boost demand, how will many signature holders feel with the wrong seats? They are promised, they are not given, then everybody else after them is given the right seats. This will not be right at so many levels.
In a nut shell, I fully expect them to fix the seats before the true launch (founders series doesn't count).
So now we are talking about back to the drawing board and re-designing the seats. Design, implement, test, productionise, and maybe multiple iterations of that actually. This will take several months.
For reference, Tesla took 6-months to launch the Titanium underbody from the first f!re incident, which should have promoted them to start exploring a solution. It's a seemingly simpler issue.
Put this all together, we have an early 2016 launch.
On a separate note, I am also very suspicious of all these cgi screenshots in the design studio. Why not real pictures? They didn't want a single photographer to be able to see the car? Ok, even if that's the case, nobody in-the-inside is capable of taking a decent picture? really?
Think about this, how much harder is generating a fake cgi picture, with a bike and everything, than a simple click on a camera? The only thing I can think of is that the car is not ready.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
I believe a Tesla employee was quoted on TMC as saying Tesla expected to deliver U.S. Signatures, was it even all U.S. Signatures, by years end. Nothing seems to indicate so far a further postponement of the launch, though it is of course interesting to count how many Model X Tesla ends up shipping in 2015.
Merrill
Merrill
