Model X reveal impact on TSLA

anticitizen13.7 · Sep 9, 2015

Just a heads up on more possible trouble in Model X land :cursing:

It appears that Model X does not have a second row that can fold. See this thread: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...ns-you-might-cancel-your-MX-reservation/page2

AlMc said:
Sub: I have talked to the NASales people twice already about the second row seats. They will not fold flat. I asked if I waited for a Production X if there would be a second seat option that would fold flat: answer 'No'. Now, EM appears to love to surprise people and show things at the reveal that may make us go 'wow'....However, with some of the dissention in the Sig ranks about the second row seats not folding I can't believe that he has either lied to his sales force or instructed them to lie to Sig holders.

And

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...e-second-row-seats-fold-flat-If-so-how/page27

If this is true, and the seats don't have any alternative method of getting themselves out of the way in order to accommodate long cargo, the X may actually have less utility than the S in terms of things like wide TVs and lumber.

Tesla's silence on the issue, even apparently to Signature Series reservation holders, is of concern to me, as it could possibly signal higher than expected order cancellations.

In the long run, I believe that Tesla could eventually sort out the second row issue should it prove to put a dent in sales, but this could mean a slower than expected ramp.

drinkerofkoolaid · Sep 9, 2015

anticitizen13.7 said:
Just a heads up on more possible trouble in Model X land :cursing:

It appears that Model X does not have a second row that can fold. See this thread: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...ns-you-might-cancel-your-MX-reservation/page2

And

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...e-second-row-seats-fold-flat-If-so-how/page27

If this is true, and the seats don't have any alternative method of getting themselves out of the way in order to accommodate long cargo, the X may actually have less utility than the S in terms of things like wide TVs and lumber.

Tesla's silence on the issue, even apparently to Signature Series reservation holders, is of concern to me, as it could possibly signal higher than expected order cancellations.

In the long run, I believe that Tesla could eventually sort out the second row issue should it prove to put a dent in sales, but this could mean a slower than expected ramp.

This isn't new, and probably isn't accurate. Below is a pic from this link.
http://my.teslamotors.com/fr_CH/forum/forums/worried-about-model-x-seating

Zaxxon · Sep 9, 2015

Didn't the reveal in 2012 specifically show 'all this space' with both rows flat? If so, doesn't this contradict Elon's claim that the production model will always be better than the concept?

I was hoping this particular seat option was just a sig thing, but it sounds like that is not the case.

drinkerofkoolaid · Sep 9, 2015

Zaxxon said:
Didn't the reveal in 2012 specifically show 'all this space' with both rows flat? If so, doesn't this contradict Elon's claim that the production model will always be better than the concept?

I was hoping this particular seat option was just a sig thing, but it sounds like that is not the case.

This picture was posted last year. A lot could have changed since then.

anticitizen13.7 · Sep 9, 2015

drinkerofkoolaid said:
This isn't new, and probably isn't accurate. Below is a pic from this link.
http://my.teslamotors.com/fr_CH/forum/forums/worried-about-model-x-seating

View attachment 93627

The slides for the Model X concept set the expectation. This is why I think there might be trouble.

Zaxxon said:
Didn't the reveal in 2012 specifically show 'all this space' with both rows flat? If so, doesn't this contradict Elon's claim that the production model will always be better than the concept?

I was hoping this particular seat option was just a sig thing, but it sounds like that is not the case.

Yes, this would definitely contradict Elon's statement that the production model would be better than the concept. It also goes against the near universal expectation that Model X would have a folding second row, or some kind of equivalent way of making a large cargo area just like the vast majority of mid-size CUV/SUVs.

If people reserved with the expectation that they could have a large and useful cargo area, and that expectation isn't met, this could be a disaster.

While there is the possibility that Tesla has some more tricks up its sleeve, there is no indication from either the screen shots of the Configuration website or statements from Reservation holders to the contrary.

People trading for the short term need to be aware of this risk. If the X doesn't live up to expectations (in reservations turned into sales, as well as press critical acclaim) after a 2 year delay, TSLA will likely tank until a solution can be engineered and implemented.

Chickenlittle · Sep 9, 2015

anticitizen13.7 said:
The slides for the Model X concept set the expectation. This is why I think there might be trouble.

Yes, this would definitely contradict Elon's statement that the production model would be better than the concept. It also goes against the near universal expectation that Model X would have a folding second row, or some kind of equivalent way of making a large cargo area just like the vast majority of mid-size CUV/SUVs.

If people reserved with the expectation that they could have a large and useful cargo area, and that expectation isn't met, this could be a disaster.

While there is the possibility that Tesla has some more tricks up its sleeve, there is no indication from either the screen shots of the Configuration website or statements from Reservation holders to the contrary.

People trading for the short term need to be aware of this risk. If the X doesn't live up to expectations (in reservations turned into sales, as well as press critical acclaim) after a 2 year delay, TSLA will likely tank until a solution can be engineered and implemented.

Uh oh did you miss your entry point? Looking to lower it? Why not wait for the car to appear before you complain about it

sub · Sep 9, 2015

AlMc was responding to me in that thread, I Just can't fathom Tesla not having a fold flat option. I'll gladly eat my words if I'm wrong. I'm one to worry about things AFTER they happen rather than spending all my time worrying about things that COULD happen. life is much more enjoyable that way. I would advise not to trade with this attitude however! :tongue:

anticitizen13.7 · Sep 9, 2015

Chickenlittle said:
Uh oh did you miss your entry point? Looking to lower it?

No. I bought the vast majority of my shares in 2012, and the remainder in early 2013. I currently have no plans to buy or sell any shares in TSLA anytime soon.

Why not wait for the car to appear before you complain about it

I participate in the short term thread because it is often a good source of news about Tesla Motors. However, many people in the investor sub-forum do not often visit other areas of the forum, and may not be aware of what is actually going on with the product.

Should traders be kept in ignorance of a potential short-term problem?

If this were just idle speculation on Yahoo! or some other crummy news site, I wouldn't give it any credibility.

However, this information is from people on this forum, some who are actual reservation holders. So no, there is little point in waiting to see actual product.

If Tesla Motors wants to clear the air, they can easily do so by clarifying the specification for the second row rear bench. Frankly, the lack of communication for the company is a problem that is getting worse, and people who have significant deposits and are contemplating a $130,000 purchase should be getting better and more complete information. This is BS, and I would say it to Elon's face.

hershey101 · Sep 9, 2015

anticitizen13.7 said:
No. I bought the vast majority of my shares in 2012, and the remainder in early 2013. I currently have no plans to buy or sell any shares in TSLA anytime soon.

I participate in the short term thread because it is often a good source of news about Tesla Motors. However, many people in the investor sub-forum do not often visit other areas of the forum, and may not be aware of what is actually going on with the product.

Should traders be kept in ignorance of a potential short-term problem?

If this were just idle speculation on Yahoo! or some other crummy news site, I wouldn't give it any credibility.

However, this information is from people on this forum, some who are actual reservation holders. So no, there is little point in waiting to see actual product.

If Tesla Motors wants to clear the air, they can easily do so by clarifying the specification for the second row rear bench. Frankly, the lack of communication for the company is a problem that is getting worse, and people who have significant deposits and are contemplating a $130,000 purchase should be getting better and more complete information. This is BS, and I would say it to Elon's face.

You should write him a detailed email regarding this. I did so when they ****ed up my order and he took action. To be fair though, this was a couple of years ago when the company was a lot smaller (I'm vin#~7100)

Krugerrand · Sep 9, 2015

anticitizen13.7 said:
...TSLA will likely tank until a solution can be engineered and implemented.

Do we have to use the word tank? I've seen people bandy that around on 1-10% drops, none of which ever constituted or correctly described the stock 'tanking'. Can we put a percentage point or dollar figure on what you feel the market would penalize TSLA in regard to this particular subject matter rather than use hyperbole type adjectives. Unless, of course, you actually think the bottom is going to drop out of TSLA - as in a 50%+ drop - because a row of seats won't currently fold flat.

anticitizen13.7 · Sep 9, 2015

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

Krugerrand said:
Do we have to use the word tank? I've seen people bandy that around on 1-10% drops, none of which ever constituted or correctly described the stock 'tanking'. Can we put a percentage point or dollar figure on what you feel the market would penalize TSLA in regard to this particular subject matter rather than use hyperbole type adjectives. Unless, of course, you actually think the bottom is going to drop out of TSLA - as in a 50%+ drop - because a row of seats won't currently fold flat.

The word "tank" is imprecise, but short term predictions are not easily made in exact terms.

Trading entities, whether Human or AI, can be fickle. There's no way to know exactly what will happen, but I believe that negative news on Model X will place more than usual downward pressure on TSLA.

If the seats not folding flat hurts the conversion of reservations to paid orders, it will hurt the stock price. I don't think it helps to ignore or downplay this risk. Design and engineering choices have consequences.

Krugerrand · Sep 9, 2015

anticitizen13.7 said:
The word "tank" is imprecise, but short term predictions are not easily made in exact terms.

Yes, of course it's imprecise, but it's also 'over the top' indicating a VERY HIGH level of bad.

If the seats not folding flat hurts the conversion of reservations to paid orders, it will hurt the stock price. I don't think it helps to ignore or downplay this risk. Design and engineering choices have consequences.

I'm not suggesting anyone ignore or downplay the risk. I'm asking you to use dialogue that isn't of the 'sky is falling kind'. We get that enough around here without adding to the pile. I'm not asking you to predict market reaction to the penny. I'm asking you do put a better defined context to it based on your years of experience following TSLA. This might include finding relevant information on the percentage of SUV owners that fold down those seats regularly vs those that don't. It might include some logical and reasonable dialogue that'll come out via the likes of Motor Trend, Car & Driver etc... Unless of course you really feel this a situation of do (make those seats fold) or die for Tesla and thusly TSLA. Then by all means use the word tank. I gather, though, that you don't think this since you just also posted you aren't planning on selling your shares any time soon.

eloder · Sep 9, 2015

Yes, this would definitely contradict Elon's statement that the production model would be better than the concept. It also goes against the near universal expectation that Model X would have a folding second row, or some kind of equivalent way of making a large cargo area just like the vast majority of mid-size CUV/SUVs.

If people reserved with the expectation that they could have a large and useful cargo area, and that expectation isn't met, this could be a disaster.

While there is the possibility that Tesla has some more tricks up its sleeve, there is no indication from either the screen shots of the Configuration website or statements from Reservation holders to the contrary.

People trading for the short term need to be aware of this risk. If the X doesn't live up to expectations (in reservations turned into sales, as well as press critical acclaim) after a 2 year delay, TSLA will likely tank until a solution can be engineered and implemented.

I think the media and most owners will react far more positively to the fact that the MX speeds are vastly faster than first expected. The MX is faster than the fastest Model S's when it was unveiled. The MX is faster than many high-end sports cars.

Storage space is something you can get out of any old SUV/CUV on the market, 0-60 at McLaren speeds is not. Plus it's only a very specific kind of storage--very long objects. Third row folding only plus frunk will still put MX cargo room way beyond that of any other SUV/CUV on the market, overall.

This is assuming of course that the seats do not fold flat. I think what's more likely is that the seats don't fold flat (when optioned for rear executive a la Signature series), but that the second row seats fold "flat enough" that it's still useful for storage. I've been in a number of cars that can fold rear seats at a 20 degree incline and it still works for most purposes just fine.

anticitizen13.7 · Sep 9, 2015

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

Krugerrand said:
Yes, of course it's imprecise, but it's also 'over the top' indicating a VERY HIGH level of bad.

I'm glad my point is clear then, because an unfavorable level of sales and critical acclaim WOULD BE a very high level of bad in the short term (months to a year).

Model X is 2 years late, and expectations are sky high, both in terms of product functionality and financial benefit to the company. Any stumble now is going to affect the timetable for free cash flow, and call into question the company's ability to make good design choices. Any engineering remedy would take time.

I'm asking you to use dialogue that isn't of the 'sky is falling kind'. We get that enough around here without adding to the pile. I'm not asking you to predict market reaction to the penny. I'm asking you do put a better defined context to it based on your years of experience following TSLA. This might include finding relevant information on the percentage of SUV owners that fold down those seats regularly vs those that don't.

This is misunderstanding what I am saying. Tesla can survive screwing up the seat design. It won't kill the company, but it will hurt the stock price, possibly significantly, in the near term if the seat design results in lower than expected but rates.

"Regularly" folding down the seats is not a good metric. It's like range. Model S 85 has 265 miles EPA range… NOBODY asks how regularly one would use all of this. It's about having the capability when one needs it, and not being inconvenienced like a LEAF driver. For a 130k vehicle, there shouldn't be much if any compromise in ANY aspect.

What s the big deal about the word tank anyways? TSLA has tanked plenty of times (F**re scares, the plunge this March, which was off nearly 100 points from ATH). Who cares? This is a volatile stock and I knew that buying in. I expect wild swings.

TSLAopt · Sep 9, 2015

anticitizen13.7 said:
The word "tank" is imprecise, but short term predictions are not easily made in exact terms.

Trading entities, whether Human or AI, can be fickle. There's no way to know exactly what will happen, but I believe that negative news on Model X will place more than usual downward pressure on TSLA.

If the seats not folding flat hurts the conversion of reservations to paid orders, it will hurt the stock price. I don't think it helps to ignore or downplay this risk. Design and engineering choices have consequences.

I wouldn't panic...I trust Elon and his word when he says there is something special about these 2nd row seats and that some of the features won't be shown until the first cars are delivered, which we now know will be Sept 29th.

End of discussion...anything else is just speculation...even if the Tesla reps say the seats don't fold down, i trust there is some other special feature about them...maybe they turn around to make space, or rotate and fold up somehow wit the push of a button, or can be pulled out easily, or can hover on air...who knows? I just know there will be something special about them that I'm excited to wait and learn about come Sept 29th. Guessing does nothing other than project our fears or fantasies.

anticitizen13.7 · Sep 9, 2015

TSLAopt said:
I wouldn't panic...I trust Elon and his word when he says there is something special about these 2nd row seats and that some of the features won't be shown until the first cars are delivered, which we now know will be Sept 29th.

End of discussion...anything else is just speculation...even if the Tesla reps say the seats don't fold down, i trust there is some other special feature about them...maybe they turn around to make space, or rotate and fold up somehow wit the push of a button, or can be pulled out easily, or can hover on air...who knows? I just know there will be something special about them that I'm excited to wait and learn about come Sept 29th. Guessing does nothing other than project our fears or fantasies.

It's pretty lousy to ask people to configure and not disclose an important feature… not to mention that it could possibly result in a needlessly lost sale. If reservation holders have been told "no folding" and nothing else, the assumption from most people, rightly or wrongly, is that there's no alternative method of creating a big cargo area. Why take that chance? It's not like Honda is going to be able to copy the idea in 3 weeks.

I'm a big proponent of Tesla, but this company often does idiotic things and should be called out on them.

AlMc · Sep 9, 2015

TSLAopt said:
I wouldn't panic...I trust Elon and his word when he says there is something special about these 2nd row seats and that some of the features won't be shown until the first cars are delivered, which we now know will be Sept 29th.

End of discussion...anything else is just speculation...even if the Tesla reps say the seats don't fold down, i trust there is some other special feature about them...maybe they turn around to make space, or rotate and fold up somehow wit the push of a button, or can be pulled out easily, or can hover on air...who knows? I just know there will be something special about them that I'm excited to wait and learn about come Sept 29th. Guessing does nothing other than project our fears or fantasies.

You are absolutely correct that guessing does nothing about advancing our knowledge about the X. Problem: You can't make an informed decision about configuring your vehicle without having all the facts. AFAIK the Sigs are under no NDA and several have been very good about sharing the details they know. Many people may trust Elon implicitly and want to be surprised. When my number comes up I just hope that the reveal happens before I have to configure/confirm because plunking down 130K and trusting in Elon is not what I had in mind when I made my deposit long ago.

I know this really is a 'first world' problem and I am lucky to be in a position to even contemplate spending this type of money on a vehicle but TM has had a history of not being forthcoming/informative with their customer's questions.

TSLAopt · Sep 9, 2015

AlMc said:
You are absolutely correct that guessing does nothing about advancing our knowledge about the X. Problem: You can't make an informed decision about configuring your vehicle without having all the facts. AFAIK the Sigs are under no NDA and several have been very good about sharing the details they know. Many people may trust Elon implicitly and want to be surprised. When my number comes up I just hope that the reveal happens before I have to configure/confirm because plunking down 130K and trusting in Elon is not what I had in mind when I made my deposit long ago.

I know this really is a 'first world' problem and I am lucky to be in a position to even contemplate spending this type of money on a vehicle but TM has had a history of not being forthcoming/informative with their customer's questions.

If a signature holders doesn't want to be surprised on the chance they won't be happy with the surprise then can't they just defer their order and configuration in a later batch until after the Sept 29th reveal? I'm sure that is an option that wouldn't necessarily put them to the very end of the line, but perhaps I'm wrong.

Bgarret · Sep 9, 2015

Wow....this went down the rabbit hole fast. So, to be clear, the 2nd row seats on a yet to be produced CUV may or may not fold down and that may or may not cause widespread cancellations (or new orders) because people won't be able to fit their 50in. TV (that I wouldn't buy anyway, as I don't have any connectivity) to cart it back from Best Buy...or Cicuit City...or BetaMax.

More people will not by the Model X because it has an all electric drive train than will not buy it because the 2nd row may or may not fold down. Doesn't mean we should add an ICE. It goes beyond 1st world problems - myriad of decisions had to be made for each option - towing, driver assist, display, connectivity, charging, cup holders ..ad infinitum. I find it difficult to hang a potential major stock correction on seats and equate it to firxs or delivery misses.

Lets be done.

Krugerrand · Sep 9, 2015

anticitizen13.7 said:
What s the big deal about the word tank anyways?

Ask the periodic bears that show up in this thread and pronounce such things only to get their heads bitten off.

TSLA has tanked plenty of times (F**re scares, the plunge this March, which was off nearly 100 points from ATH). Who cares? This is a volatile stock and I knew that buying in. I expect wild swings.

None of those episodes are what I'd ever define as 'tanked'. But now that I know what your definition is, I can put your view and terminology into context that I can understand: It's TSLA as usual going forward.

- - - Updated - - -

anticitizen13.7 said:
It's pretty lousy to ask people to configure and not disclose an important feature…

Stop making it sound as if people are being forced to configure without knowing details. The option to defer until a person has all the information they require and/or a test drive is very real. So there's nothing lousy in this regard going on. As well, it's been WIDELY and PUBLICALLY known for quite some time that Model X would not be revealed until first delivers, giving early Sig holders plenty of time to decide how they'll handle the situation if time to confirm comes up before the reveal.

On the topic of the seats and how it may affect TSLA: if they don't fold then that is going to be a deal breaker for some reservationists. Logically and reasonably that lack of functionality to create full cargo space is going to be mentioned in media reviews as a negative on the vehicle even if that row of seats serve secondarily as an aquarium and barbecue.

- - - Updated - - -

AlMc said:
I know this really is a 'first world' problem and I am lucky to be in a position to even contemplate spending this type of money on a vehicle but TM has had a history of not being forthcoming/informative with their customer's questions.

And as of last year during one of the ERs they very specifically said they would be holding their cards close to their chests from then on and they have kept to that.

Model X reveal impact on TSLA

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