MX Signature wait-list upgrade

Robert.Boston said:

First, apologies to all that I fell so far behind on getting the Wiki Map updated.

As I did so, I came across an interesting tidbit: Someone on the wait-list for a Signature upgrade was recently upgraded, with reservation number 1413. The implication is that at least 413 people who originally signed up for the Signature edition either cancelled or downgraded—over 40% of the total. Hmm.

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Or that Tesla has messed up again.

Two possibilities:
- People dropped their X reservation when the D came out.
- Bonnie mentioned that there might be something they can't deliver right now, and many people might have deferred to get it.

Robert.Boston said:

As I did so, I came across an interesting tidbit: Someone on the wait-list for a Signature upgrade was recently upgraded, with reservation number 1413. The implication is that at least 413 people who originally signed up for the Signature edition either cancelled or downgraded—over 40% of the total. Hmm.

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How do you come to that conclusion?
You appear to be assuming that the 412 people with non-signature reservations 1001-1412 have all upgraded to signature. Isn't it more likely that many of those people have either dropped out themselves, or were offered the chance to upgrade but declined it in favour of keeping their non-signature position?
I'm not sure that you can conclude from that piece of information that any more than just one signature has dropped out (though the true number is probably somewhere between).

ItsNotAboutTheMoney said:

Or that Tesla has messed up again.

Two possibilities:
- People dropped their X reservation when the D came out.
- Bonnie mentioned that there might be something they can't deliver right now, and many people might have deferred to get it.

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For certain a good number changed when the D came out, some have downgraded and some cancelled - I'd guess in that order. Also, I am not so certain Tesla has held totally hard and fast to the 1,000 Sig number. I seem to remember people getting reservation numbers over 1,000 way back when, but I'm too lazy to look it up.
We were upgraded from Sig waitlist to Sig reservation in July but did not receive a reservation number. Might go for it, might downgrade when I see the options and have to decide what may be there or gone after Sigs. Not sure we were looking for Ludicrous or even 3.8 0-60 in an SUV, the X90D is probably what we want, but it sounds like it's not available for Sigs, only XP90D.

Robert.Boston said:

Someone on the wait-list for a Signature upgrade was recently upgraded, with reservation number 1413. The implication is that at least 413 people who originally signed up for the Signature edition either cancelled or downgraded—over 40% of the total. Hmm.

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Seems plausible. We know the overall cancellation rate stood at 20% end of last year. It makes sense for the rate with signatures to be higher 1) the financial commitment is much larger so there is a greater incentive to withdraw if you get in a financially tight spot 2) sig reservation closed quite a while before end of year 2014 so these are older reservations and therefore had more time to reconsidere 3) we are 9 months further along the line with several significant improvements to the S model which may have convinced some reservation holders to give up on an X and go for an S instead.

I would bet the overall cancellation rate to be somewhere between 20 and 40, trending towards the lower end (maybe 25 or so)

Cattledog said:

For certain a good number changed when the D came out, some have downgraded and some cancelled - I'd guess in that order. Also, I am not so certain Tesla has held totally hard and fast to the 1,000 Sig number. I seem to remember people getting reservation numbers over 1,000 way back when, but I'm too lazy to look it up.
We were upgraded from Sig waitlist to Sig reservation in July but did not receive a reservation number. Might go for it, might downgrade when I see the options and have to decide what may be there or gone after Sigs. Not sure we were looking for Ludicrous or even 3.8 0-60 in an SUV, the X90D is probably what we want, but it sounds like it's not available for Sigs, only XP90D.

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For the Model S, I believe Tesla tried to keep fairly close to 1000 Signature cars in the U.S., but I don't recall ever seeing Tesla state anywhere that the Model X Signature run would be limited to 1,000 cars in the U.S. So possibly Tesla went a bit higher than 1,000 cars in the United States for the X Signature and the dropout rate is not as high as it seems. But it has been a long wait for since we had the first opportunity to reserve the car in 2012, so a lot can happen in individual peoples circumstances in about 4 years, so it's possible for the 40% dropout rate to be true. In the end, I don't think it's an indicator of overall demand if the dropout rate for Sigs is that high. It's more an indicator that people decided to delay or drop purchasing the Model X for what ever personal reasons they had.

In October 2014 I was invited to upgrade to a sig and got #1374 but that was a mistake and the offer was rescinded. Then in June I was again invited and got a slightly higher number but only for one day and then that number, but not the Sig res, was removed from MyTesla and the rep said they are not giving out numbers for upgrades. Perhaps sequence numbers used in the mistaken upgrade round were not reused.

Robert.Boston said:

There are distinct numbering systems for the two lists--at least, there were for Model S. So getting Signature reservation 1413 means that there were a bunch of cancellations, or that Tesla has changed how it manages its queue numbering.

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OK, my mistake - I thought you meant that the person with ordinary reservation #1413 got the offer to upgrade.

...and, as I'd reported in an earlier thread, I also upgraded to Sig in early June but Tesla, in multiple communications, has refused to reveal my new reservation number.